It's Crunch Time

L

longtimer

Well-Known Member
Time of the year when good teams turn it up a notch and others fade. Iowa hasn't played especially well in 2 miracle wins over second division teams and a close loss to a good Maryland team. Amazing how much difference it makes when shots go in. We have a number of players that can shoot and especially shoot the 3 and really I think that will end up deciding our fate (like a lot of teams out there) See Iowa State! So far we have not had a bad loss which we don't seem to get a lot of credit for in the seeding projections. But in the final analysis we need to win at least 3 of the next 5 and win 1 or more in the big ten Tournament. Not sure if that gets us a 6 seed or not?
Really an important year end for team and coach. McCaffrey hasn't been able to lure a lot of top talent to a program that hasn't done much on the National scene in his tenure. A strong showing in the tournament could help that. I would still hope this isn't the highest level this program can attain
 
longtimer said:
Time of the year when good teams turn it up a notch and others fade. Iowa hasn't played especially well in 2 miracle wins over second division teams and a close loss to a good Maryland team. Amazing how much difference it makes when shots go in. We have a number of players that can shoot and especially shoot the 3 and really I think that will end up deciding our fate (like a lot of teams out there) See Iowa State! So far we have not had a bad loss which we don't seem to get a lot of credit for in the seeding projections. But in the final analysis we need to win at least 3 of the next 5 and win 1 or more in the big ten Tournament. Not sure if that gets us a 6 seed or not?
Really an important year end for team and coach. McCaffrey hasn't been able to lure a lot of top talent to a program that hasn't done much on the National scene in his tenure. A strong showing in the tournament could help that. I would still hope this isn't the highest level this program can attain
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Id be pretty disappointed to go 23-8 reg season and only get a 6 seed. 6 ought to be floor goal for Hawks.
 
We moved from #28 to #29 in the NET rankings with the Maryland loss. Not a big hit. Maryland is highly ranked.

Our next 5 are pretty tough. 3W and 2L would be terrific. 2W and 3L would be acceptable. 1W 4L would not be good.
 
HawkPrdatr40 said:
Unless Iowa runs the table and goes on a tear in the BTT, IMO right now Iowa Max seed is a 6.
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Correct - that is what they are saying 23-8 is likely a 5 or 6 - that wouldn't be a tear - that would be basically winning 3 more games out of the 5 left on the schedule. If they do better and add a couple in the BTT they are likely going to get a higher seed. With home games vs Indiana and Rutgers along with a truly tanking team @Nebraska still on the schedule, that would be pretty good. The nice thing is if they do that, they are going to stay in pretty much the same spot on the Net rankings because of the SOS down the stretch.
 
It's true that Iowa doesn't have any bad losses, but I think the flip side to this is that they don't particularly have a ton of big wins, either.

Michigan, a shorthanded ISU team, Ohio State, and....................???? If we're going to complain about a lack of respect in the polls and/or not drawing a higher NCAA seed, then I would argue that our resume is a little light in this regard.

Most of our big wins have not aged real well. Oregon, Uconn, Nebraska. Even the OSU win looked better at the time than it is now.

The bulk of the season is over, and all of our conference wins, save one, have come against opponents in the bottom half of the league. What this tells me is that Iowa is more or less a middle of the pack Big 10 team, albeit in a good conference.

IMO our projected seeding and national ranking is roughly where it deserves to be. Fringe Top-25 and 6'ish seed.

Still, as others have said, given last year, and offered where we are right now at the start of the season, I'd have gladly taken it.

All this said - there is still opportunity to play our way up.
 
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1977Hawkeye said:
It's true that Iowa doesn't have any bad losses, but I think the flip side to this is that they don't particularly have a ton of big wins, either.

Michigan, a shorthanded ISU team, Ohio State, and....................???? If we're going to complain about a lack of respect in the polls and/or not drawing a higher NCAA seed, then I would argue that our resume is a little light in this regard.

Most of our big wins have not aged real well. Oregon, Uconn, Nebraska. Even the OSU win looked better at the time than it is now.

The bulk of the season is over, and all of our conference wins, save one, have come against opponents in the bottom half of the league. What this tells me is that Iowa is more or less a middle of the pack Big 10 team, albeit in a good conference.

IMO our projected seeding and national ranking is roughly where it deserves to be. Fringe Top-25 and 6'ish seed.

Still, as others have said, given last year, and offered where we are right now at the start of the season, I'd have gladly taken it.

All this said - there is still opportunity to play our way up.
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I get your point, but beating the lower tier teams in the BT this year has been a chore for nearly everyone in the upper tiers. 20 conference games: That is a lot of conference games, teams that have scouted us a lot, teams that will play us twice in the same year, some really smart coaches in the BT, and even the so called lower tier teams are, after all, Division 1 scholarship programs in arguably the best BB conference in the country.
 
As long as we’re a 6 or better I’ll take it. We have to tank pretty bad to drop below a 6. The likely 3 seeds don’t scare me all that much...especially with only a day to prepare.
 
HuckFinn said:
I get your point, but beating the lower tier teams in the BT this year has been a chore for nearly everyone in the upper tiers. 20 conference games: That is a lot of conference games, teams that have scouted us a lot, teams that will play us twice in the same year, some really smart coaches in the BT, and even the so called lower tier teams are, after all, Division 1 scholarship programs in arguably the best BB conference in the country.
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Fair enough, but that hasn't really helped us against upper-division teams yet (save for the Michigan game).

The Hawks have done a good job taking care of the games they're supposed to win. Just haven't really been able to get it done against the top half. Maybe they can get Wisconsin at their place.. Then there's still the BTT.
 
1977Hawkeye said:
Fair enough, but that hasn't really helped us against upper-division teams yet (save for the Michigan game).

The Hawks have done a good job taking care of the games they're supposed to win. Just haven't really been able to get it done against the top half. Maybe they can get Wisconsin at their place.. Then there's still the BTT.
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Since the 0-3 start, iowa has played even or outplayed the top teams in 100 of 120 minutes. They are only 1-2 but they have proved they belong. At least at home they do. They aren't good enough to compete with the top 3 on the road.
 
PCHawk said:
Since the 0-3 start, iowa has played even or outplayed the top teams in 100 of 120 minutes. They are only 1-2 but they have proved they belong. At least at home they do. They aren't good enough to compete with the top 3 on the road.
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No argument from me on that.

I'm not knocking the team, but I don't believe we're being snubbed, either. 6 seed seems about right at this point. To be much higher, I think we'd have had to win a couple more against the upper-division teams. All IMHO of course.
 
1977Hawkeye said:
No argument from me on that.

I'm not knocking the team, but I don't believe we're being snubbed, either. 6 seed seems about right at this point. To be much higher, I think we'd have had to win a couple more against the upper-division teams. All IMHO of course.
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You mean 6 seed if the tournament started today? Or 6 seed of we win out? Or I guess maybe 6 seed if we win the ones we're supposed to? I think if we win out other than Wisconsin we would be a 6 seed. If we beat Wisconsin too, and get to Saturday in the Big 10 tournament, we could get a 5 seed. If we win out all the way to selection Sunday, we should be a 4.
 
HuckFinn said:
I get your point, but beating the lower tier teams in the BT this year has been a chore for nearly everyone in the upper tiers. 20 conference games: That is a lot of conference games, teams that have scouted us a lot, teams that will play us twice in the same year, some really smart coaches in the BT, and even the so called lower tier teams are, after all, Division 1 scholarship programs in arguably the best BB conference in the country.
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True. Penn St beat Michigan on Feb 12. All of the bottom four teams in the Big 10 have played the top teams to very close games. Not many blowouts this season.
 
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