Is the sky falling?

[BSpringsteen]

We've been here before Hawkeye Nation.

To me the most impressive thing on KF's resume is not that he built Iowa back up into a national program, but that he did it twice. It now appears that he may have to do it for a third time, and while I can't think of anyone more qualified for that job than KF, for the same person to build the same program up three times is unprecedented.

That is what worries me.

But we have this, and it feels like deja vu.

• We have a team that quit again at the end of the season. KF didn't call them Fat Cats, but he basically did... we got what we deserved. If losing to the worst team is what you deserve, you're fat cats.
• We have players getting in trouble, by being in situations that no coach should have ever allowed.
• We have opposing coaches and players talking publicly about how they know what we are going to do and how they planned all week to exploit it.
• We have people calling for a new offensive coordinator and our defensive coordinator missed the entire year with a progressive disease.
• We have player defections.

How in the world does he keep it all together with the current players?

How do the current seniors, many of whom harbor very realistic draft day ambitions go out and put it all out there and not just go through the motions, especially given all that's transpired the past week?

I guess what I am saying, is that as much as I don't want to say it, the deck is starting to stack up in the pile you don't want it to be. Add to the fact that next year is a "rebuilding" year and it doesn't take long to see where this road may end up.

I'll never understand how KF took the 2007 debacle and turned it into 2008-09. Was it all Shonn Greene in 2008 and all luck in 2009? Probably not, and we'll probably never know the changes that were made inside the walls of Iowa football to change the culture. That is the KF way.

But this past season culminating in this week is a very clear line in the sand for me. We'll be talking about this week when we are either looking for a new head coach or when we all sit around and say, "my God Ferentz has done it again. He really is that good."

 

[HaydenHawk56]

Can you think off the top of your head how many times a team went from NT ambitions to the bottom following out in only 1 years (1 regular season) time? Iowa Football 2010 is one for the ages.

 

[tm3308]

Can you think off the top of your head how many times a team went from NT ambitions to the bottom following out in only 1 years (1 regular season) time? Iowa Football 2010 is one for the ages.

Texas 2010. 5-7, both co-ordinators gone. Not much for off-field problems, but they've sunk VERY low too. And they were IN the national championship game last year.

 

[JonDMiller]

Can you think off the top of your head how many times a team went from NT ambitions to the bottom following out in only 1 years (1 regular season) time? Iowa Football 2010 is one for the ages.

Florida and Texas were ranked ahead of Iowa in this year's preseason poll. Texas went 5-7 and Florida 7-5.

Texas should never, ever, ever go 5-7.

So there are two examples of teams that had just as high of expectations, if not higher, that finished with the same record as Iowa (Florida) or worse (Texas).

You can find examples near this most every year.

 

[BSpringsteen]

Yeah - but not one of those teams were senior laden with 16 of 22 starters returning from the year prior.

Texas and Florida were ranked there out of reputation, not out of expectations.

That being said, I don't think anyone in Austin or Gainseville is losing sleep over the future of their program right now.

 

[tm3308]

Florida and Texas were ranked ahead of Iowa in this year's preseason poll. Texas went 5-7 and Florida 7-5.

Texas should never, ever, ever go 5-7.

So there are two examples of teams that had just as high of expectations, if not higher, that finished with the same record as Iowa (Florida) or worse (Texas).

You can find examples near this most every year.

The only difference is that we've also suffered off the field as well. But Texas and Florida are still very comparable with us right now.

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

No, it is not falling. Despite the recent bad news, we had a chance to win every game this year on the last possession, including against two of the three Big Ten champions. And we blasted the third Big Ten champion. I recall some games that completely got away from Fry towards the end of his run, and with Ferentz in '99 and early '00, and it was depressing how far away Iowa was from the top programs in the conference.

This season is depressing for a different reason, but the upside is that there is plenty of talent left on this roster going into the off-season. And a head coach who, when things get difficult, juts his jaw and builds things back up relatively quickly.

I'm guessing that's what happens here. I'm also guessing this season has given Ferentz another chance to assess some tweaks he wants to make, and possibly rid his program of a few folks that have created some poor chemistry recently.

I love Norm, but if he needs to step away, bringing in another defensive coordinator might add a new dimension to the staff. I've also heard a few things regarding an offensive coach who might not be back (not O'Keefe).

Obviously this all speculation at this point. That said, we're in good hands with a tough minded coach who has built a program the right way over the past decade. His track record suggests he'll be able to do it again - regardless of what is announced tomorrow.

 

[JonDMiller]

That being said, I don't think anyone in Austin or Gainseville is losing sleep over the future of their program right now.

oh, I don't think I'd say that. Muschamp is gone from Texas and Florida has a new coach

 

[BSpringsteen]

You may be right about that Jon - I think my point is that where Iowa is right now is vastly different than where Texas and Florida are (and not because we're li'l ole Iowa )

 

[silvanthalas]

That is what worries me.

What worries me is that we're going through this again at all. We should not be having 'deja vu' with these kinds or problems.

 

[Hawksel]

Counter point: Reasons to be positive.

The last two recruiting classes have been pretty good, and this current class had the chance halfway through to be one of the better ones since Ferentz has been here. Even though the season's results and the offseason foolishness will probably take some of the momentum out of that, the sheer need for replacing players and available early playing time will likely lead to an above average recruiting class. I'm guessing a top 25 finish (not that it matters) for the recruiting class, just based on number of players alone mixed with the recruits Iowa already has.

By my count, seven of the eleven likely starters (depending on the personnel grouping) on offense in the Insight Bowl will return next year, with good, proven players waiting in the wings at each of those positions with departing seniors. The only question for me is how will they perform in life after Stanzi. Besides that, I think they'll be fine on offense even if Adam Robinson doesn't come back next year.

Things of course will be a little hairier on defense, with I'm guessing 5 out of 11 Insight Bowl starters returning. Replacing the defensive line will definitely be a challenge, and I would not be surprised if they struggled next year. However, there is precedent for Iowa replacing great Dlines in the past, I remember the year Mitch King and Matt Kroul were thrown to the wolves. Next year won't be nearly that bad, as Mike Daniels is more like senior Mitch King than freshman Mitch King and Binns is solid as well. In that way, there will be two returning starters on the Dline, with some decent depth already developed.

As for Iowa's linebackers, I think they could use a fresh start next year. Tarp would have been a big loss if he had been healthy for any extent of time this year. Hunter will be a bigger loss than most recognize. Other than that, the unit likely has a chance to be just as good if not better than last year -- depends a lot on Morris' offseason improvement and who takes over for Hunter. So there will be a serviceable front seven with an experienced back four (provided Sash comes back) that will hopefully get better as the year goes on.

As for specialists. Ok, I agree with you here, this might get ugly again. Iowa has gotten spoiled with Donahue the past four years.

I like the schedule next year better than this year. I'll put down losses to Penn State, Nebraska and (why not) Northwestern. Maybe another loss somewhere, for an 9-3 or 8-4 season. Not a bad year for a rebuilding year, with a lot of returning talent again the next year. I'm more confident in this coming 2011 team than I was in the 2008 team before it started. There were a lot of happy accidents on that 2008 team that didn't show up until even halfway in. People forget that like Shonn Greene, Pat Angerer almost didn't pan out as a Hawkeye. Then both end up excelling in 2008.

The nice thing about not panicking and getting rid of coaches every time things go bad is that they do indeed show that they can rebound from setbacks. I have no reason to think that Iowa won't be in a BCS game again sometime in the next three to five years.

So I can see why'd your be worried if your ultimate litmus would be for Iowa to reach the National Championship, as I would agree that will be a tough summit to reach from here. On the other hand, in two separate years (2002 and 2009) a Ferentz coach team has come within a Seneca Wallace MVP type performance and a Ricky Stanzi twisted ankle of a National Championship, or at the very least a Rose Bowl.

I do agree with the Boss that Iowa Football is going through the painful phase of entering into another era of the Reign of Ferentz, with even more changes possible in the next few years that will separate it from what came before. So sure, I could see how you'd be worried. I'd rather look forward to next year, though.