Is Iowa a Top Ten National Progam?

[JonDMiller]

Eight years may sound like an odd time frame with which to evaluate ones place in the college football hierarchy, but I will choose that number for a couple of reasons; one, it mark’s Iowa’s first BCS appearance in this BCS era and two, it will come out favorably for the Hawks. Hey, at least I am being honest with you.

What we find when we run Iowa’s winning percentage back to the 2002 season, which ended with Iowa’s loss to USC in the Orange Bowl, is that Iowa has the 15th best winning percentage in all of football, and the 12th best winning percentage of teams from BCS conferences.

The Hawkeyes also have the second best winning percentage of any team in the Big Ten, with Ohio State leading the way.

1. Ohio State 87-16 (59-13 Big Ten)
2. Iowa 70-31 (46-26)
3. Wisconsin 72-32 (40-32)
4. Penn State 67-33 41-31)
5. Michigan 64-36 (47-25)
6. Purdue 53-47
7. Minnesota 52-49
8. Northwestern 49-50
9. Michigan State 48-51
10. Indiana 31-64
11. Illinois 30-65

People like to talk about if a school is a ‘Top Ten’ program. All time, there are about 15 schools that you can lump into a discussion and Iowa is not one of those schools. But over the last eight years, when you take into consideration conference championships and now a BCS bowl win, the Hawks are 12th from BCS conferences in winning percentages, can we argue they have been a Top Ten program over the past eight years, which is 80% of a decade?

Boston College is 11th in winning percentage from BCS schools over the same time span, with Auburn 10th, West Virginia 9th and Virginia Tech 8th. The schools that are 7 through 1, well, Iowa is not going to win a debate with those schools.

However, I think Iowa’s eight year track record is better than that of Auburn and Boston College, and I don’t know there is much of an argument. So we can safely put the Hawks at #10 over the last eight years with regards to strength of program, and if you want to argue about West Virginia amongst yourselves, feel free. Also, just four teams have more ‘Top 8′ finishes in the final AP rankings over the last eight years than Iowa; USC, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Texas have been there more than four times while LSU, Iowa & Georgia come next at four each.

As far as the decade goes, 2000 through 2009, the Hawkeyes tied for the 25th best winning percentage overall and 21st best winning percentage amongst BCS conference programs. Here is how things shook out with regards to the Big Ten:

1. Ohio State 102-25 (4th overall)
2. Wisconsin 86-43 (18th)
3. Michigan 81-43 (23rd)
4. Iowa 80-45 (25th)
5. Penn State 77-46 (30th)
6. Purdue 67-57 (51st)
7. Minnesota 62-62 (61st)
8. Northwestern 61-61 (61st)
9. Michigan State 60-62 (66th)
10. Illinois 45-73 (96th)
11. Indiana 39-78 (105th)

Iowa was 62-53-2 in the 1990’s (53rd) and 77-40-4 in the 1980’s. The Hawkeyes were also 25th in winning percentage in the decade of the 1980’s, and their winning percentage of .652 from that decade just nips the .640 winning percentage put up by Kirk Ferentz this decade.

The 2000’s and the 1980’s each tallied two Big Ten titles for the Hawkeyes and Iowa went to eight bowl games in each decade.

From 1981, the rebirth of the Iowa football program, through this season, Iowa has the 23rd best winning percentage in college football during that time span of schools that were at the FBS level back in 1981 (which includes 101 programs), 21st amongst programs that play in BCS conferences and fourth in the Big Ten.

Interesting note: Notre Dame checks in at 21 of the 101, and had just six more wins than Iowa during that time.

If you would like to run some of your own calculations you can do so at this great college football resource: stassen.com

 

[HawkKing81]

Jon, not sure if you saw my post earlier and yes, this is also skewed to Iowa's favor, but here it is.

# of Top 8 finishes in the AP Poll since the 2002 season:

USC – 7
Ohio St. – 6
Texas – 5
Oklahoma – 5
Iowa – 4
LSU – 4
Georgia – 4
Alabama – 3
Florida – 3
Boise St – 2
TCU – 2
Utah – 2
Penn St – 2
West Virginia – 2
Louisville – 2
Michigan – 2
Miami – 2
Cincinatti – 1
Missouri – 1
Kansas – 1
Wisconsin – 1
Virginia Tech – 1
Auburn – 1
Kansas State – 1

 

[GunnySix66]

1981-1990, Iowa won 81 games.

1991-2000, Iowa won 57 games.

*2001-2009, Iowa won 77 games so far.


*2010 season counts for this decade. 2011 is the start of a new decade. If next season, goes as everyone expects to. It could be the best era of hawkeye football.

Coach Ferentz could still tie Hayden for Big Ten11 titles in a official 10 year span.

 

[JonDMiller]

1981-1990, Iowa won 81 games.

1991-2000, Iowa won 57 games.

*2001-2009, Iowa won 77 games so far.


*2010 season counts for this decade. 2011 is the start of a new decade. If next season, goes as everyone expects to. It could be the best era of hawkeye football.

Coach Ferentz could still tie Hayden for Big Ten11 titles in a official 10 year span.

gunny while u have ten year periods I don't think that the decade of the 1980's would have a 90 in it same for next decade. But if we are talking ten year spans, which is great, good stuff

 

[GhostofBTT]

8 year span? Is it me, or are you just manipulating the numbers to make us look better. Sure it looks nice, I guess, but an 8 year span is such an arbitrary number. Are you using it because in a 5 year span, or a 10 year span, the numbers do not make us a top 10 team?

 

[JonDMiller]

8 year span? Is it me, or are you just manipulating the numbers to make us look better. Sure it looks nice, I guess, but an 8 year span is such an arbitrary number. Are you using it because in a 5 year span, or a 10 year span, the numbers do not make us a top 10 team?

Reading comprehension: Read the opening paragraph

I think that after next season, there will be a nice, socially acceptable 10 year span to choose from

 

[Hawkfromnorwalk]

What's wrong with using 8 years anyway? Sure, it's not a round number like 5 or 10 years, but 8 years gives us a good data set to look at.

 

[BSpringsteen]

Jon-

I think in fairness, you should have done a 9 year analysis. The Alamo Bowl year belongs in the analysis.

That being said, Ferentz has been here 11 years and won 81 games. Take away the first two years as statistical outliers and he has 9 years and 76 wins. This basically averages 8.5 wins a year during this 9 year period.

So basically, with Ferentz you go 8-4 in the regular season with a bowl game as an average.

 

[JonDMiller]

Deace and I were talking about it yesterday, after Iowa's #7 final ranking, and saying that in the last eight years, they have four top ten rankings...and we talked about whether or not during that span, you could consider Iowa one of the elite programs. We had a discussion about what other teams to include, and we could not come up with ten ahead of Iowa...so I brought that topic here and wrote about it.

I guess I could write another column on the basketball program's struggles, but there will probably be plenty of time for that.

 

[JonDMiller]

Jon-

I think in fairness, you should have done a 9 year analysis. The Alamo Bowl year belongs in the analysis.

That being said, Ferentz has been here 11 years and won 81 games. Take away the first two years as statistical outliers and he has 9 years and 76 wins. This basically averages 8.5 wins a year during this 9 year period.

So basically, with Ferentz you go 8-4 in the regular season with a bowl game as an average.

Folks, this is pretty simple...I said in the opening paragraph that I was using eight years and that it was a favorable sample for Iowa. I am not submitting this as a bill to the Iowa Statehouse for Iowa to be honored as a top ten program and have it etched in gold atop the dome of the capital.

 

[Hawkfromnorwalk]

Deace and I were talking about it yesterday, after Iowa's #7 final ranking, and saying that in the last eight years, they have four top ten rankings...and we talked about whether or not during that span, you could consider Iowa one of the elite programs. We had a discussion about what other teams to include, and we could not come up with ten ahead of Iowa...so I brought that topic here and wrote about it.

I guess I could write another column on the basketball program's struggles, but there will probably be plenty of time for that.

Please don't. We already know about their struggles...

 

[iahawk20]

Folks, this is pretty simple...I said in the opening paragraph that I was using eight years and that it was a favorable sample for Iowa. I am not submitting this as a bill to the Iowa Statehouse for Iowa to be honored as a top ten program and have it etched in gold atop the dome of the capital.

LOL. It did seem pretty clear to me but what do I know.

 

[BSpringsteen]

Take it easy Jon, but I think Kirk's body of work outside of his first two years is pretty impressive.

For instance, let's say for arguments sake that Iowa goes 11-2 next season, wins a share of the Big Ten title, and goes to the Rose Bowl and wins. You could say that in a ten year period...

Averaging just under 9 wins a year
Three Big Ten Championships
Three BCS Appearances
Two BCS Wins
Five 10 win seasons
Five top 10 finishes.

Now that would be an impressive body of work.

 

[tiberius]

I would say they are a to 10 program over that period. How do you think they would compare to Snyder's KSU teams in the late 90's and early 2000's?

 

[ShadasRevenge]

1981-1990, Iowa won 81 games.

1991-2000, Iowa won 57 games.

*2001-2009, Iowa won 77 games so far.


*2010 season counts for this decade. 2011 is the start of a new decade. If next season, goes as everyone expects to. It could be the best era of hawkeye football.

Coach Ferentz could still tie Hayden for Big Ten11 titles in a official 10 year span.

No it doesn't. The new decade started on 1 week ago yesterday. When you're going 2000-2009, you have to count 2000 as well.

 

[ShadasRevenge]

Jon-

I think in fairness, you should have done a 9 year analysis. The Alamo Bowl year belongs in the analysis.

That being said, Ferentz has been here 11 years and won 81 games. Take away the first two years as statistical outliers and he has 9 years and 76 wins. This basically averages 8.5 wins a year during this 9 year period.

So basically, with Ferentz you go 8-4 in the regular season with a bowl game as an average.

Don't you usually throw out the high and low numbers when you're doing that sort of thing, so in that case you would throw out 1999 and either 2002 or this past season?

 

[JonDMiller]

It's just Jon being Jon...kind of like the Stanzi to Clark comparison a while back. Not really meaningful.

Cool..then this should be the last time that you have anything to comment on what I write, since its not meaningful, and you clearly should have better things to do than read stuff that has no value to you. Take care...we'll really miss having you around.

 

[GodGodGodBathia]

So are you saying that Iowa is a top ten program or not?

 

[hawkeyescott]

1981-1990, Iowa won 81 games.

1991-2000, Iowa won 57 games.

*2001-2009, Iowa won 77 games so far.


*2010 season counts for this decade. 2011 is the start of a new decade. If next season, goes as everyone expects to. It could be the best era of hawkeye football.

Coach Ferentz could still tie Hayden for Big Ten11 titles in a official 10 year span.

Gunny, the decades start with any year ending with 0, even though when you count to 10 you might start with 1 our counting system actually starts with 0.

 

[J10Hawk]

Cool..then this should be the last time that you have anything to comment on what I write, since its not meaningful, and you clearly should have better things to do than read stuff that has no value to you. Take care...we'll really miss having you around.

hahahaa thats great work right there. well played jon!