Iowa's History with 3-1 Starts

ChosenChildren

ChosenChildren

Well-Known Member
Someone on another thread wondered what the 3-1 start means for Iowa, based on past history. Here are the stats in the Fry/Ferentz era (in each of these years Iowa started 3-1):

1981 8-4 bowl
1983: 9-3 bowl
1987 10-3 bowl
1990: 8-4 bowl
1991: 10-1-1 bowl
1996 9-3 bowl
2001 7-5 bowl
2002 11-2 bowl
2008 9-4 bowl
2010 8-5 bowl

In every season that Iowa has started 3-1, they have gone on to at least 6 wins and a bowl game. I'm going out on a limb here and predicting that Iowa wins AT LEAST 6 games and will go to a bowl this year.
 
It all depends on injuries. If we lose any of the key players, everything changes.

The line between winning and losing in college football is really thin....
 
Starting 3-1 leads to wins of anywhere from 7 to 11, not enough there for me to predict anything from a 3-1 start, except that they will go to a bowl which I thought they would given their schedule.
 
BSpringsteen said:
I'm predicting that 6 wins and going to a bowl game isn't good enough for any Iowa team ever.
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This is true. Especially when three of the games left on the schedule are against this year's Purdue, Minnesota, and Indiana teams. If Iowa loses any one of those games OR doesn't win any other games, I will be very disappointed with how things have turned out.
 
8 or better is what I preicted with out the bowl factored in. I think we win another bowl no matter which one we go to. Ferentz & Co with a more than 2 weeks to prepare is lethal, as demonstrated the last decade.
 
Iowa opened up the '07 season at 2-4 and the '08 season at 3-3.

Iowa finished the regular season in '07 at 6-6. They weren't even a good team. The D was okay ... but the LBs and safeties were still susceptible in coverage (aside from Edds). The O was absolutely terrible.

Iowa finished the regular season in '08 at 8-4. This was a team that had a tendency to self-destruct at times ... but it was also a team that could pretty much play with ANYBODY! The D was very good ... although they did have troubles getting to the QB. The O could just do enough in the passing game ... but the running game was pretty special.

Obviously, this doesn't directly relate to the original post concerning us starting off at 3-1. However, what it does point to is that our teams tend to improve as the season progresses.

This then suggests that our team that starts off at 3-1 has a definite shot to finish strong ... which could equate to a pretty darn nice final record!

In fact, given our current schedule ... I'd say that Iowa has a really good chance of getting through the first 6 games with either a 4-2 or 5-1 record. By our standards ... those are both pretty decent starts.

Of course, while I do believe that this team is VERY different from our '05 squad ... it's worth noting that we also started off that season with a 4-2 record. And, also that year we had to lean more on our O ... and we also happened to feature a pretty precise and dynamic passing game that year too. We ended up finishing the regular season that year at 7-4 ... which would land us with a 8-4 record if we had a 12-game regular season (assuming that we'd face more of a cupcake as our 4th OOC game).

Right now 8-4 looks about right ... with 9-3 being a possibility.
 
ChosenChildren said:
Someone on another thread wondered what the 3-1 start means for Iowa, based on past history. Here are the stats in the Fry/Ferentz era (in each of these years Iowa started 3-1):

1981 8-4 bowl
1983: 9-3 bowl
1987 10-3 bowl
1990: 8-4 bowl
1991: 10-1-1 bowl
1996 9-3 bowl
2001 7-5 bowl
2002 11-2 bowl
2008 9-4 bowl
2010 8-5 bowl

In every season that Iowa has started 3-1, they have gone on to at least 6 wins and a bowl game. I'm going out on a limb here and predicting that Iowa wins AT LEAST 6 games and will go to a bowl this year.
Click to expand...

Nice work OP.
 
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Considering how bad some of the teams look in the Big Ten, it would be a shame for Iowa to not accidentally stumble into 6 wins and become bowl eligible.

Though, considering our games against Indiana and Minnesota last year, I should be a bit careful with that statement...
 
Nice work by the OP.

I will say, going to a bowl now-a-days isn't really a big deal. Finish .500 overall, without regard to league record, and you too can go bowling.
 
I see some commenting on how bad some teams in the conference might look as a reason for getting to 6 wins. Teams improve throughout the year. Talent eventually rises to the top. Much like Iowa has more talent than a team like Iowa St, sometimes it takes going through the season for that talent to emerge. I believe you'll see that with Iowa and other teams in the conference.
 
If Nolan MacMillan, Brad Rogers, and Lowery can actually get close to their normal football condition, things change radically.

Nolan gives us back a pocket. Rogers gives us back a FB option. Lowery gives us a lockdown Nickel package.
 
Nice stat and if we can win on Saturday at PSU will can some confidence moving forward and might end up at 9 or 10 wins, but Saturday will be a tough challenge for the Hawks!
 
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SDK46 said:
Nice work by the OP.

I will say, going to a bowl now-a-days isn't really a big deal. Finish .500 overall, without regard to league record, and you too can go bowling.
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This isn't always the case.

Signed,

The 2007 Hawkeyes that finished 6-6 and 4-4 in the Big Ten.
 
CAARHawk said:
If Nolan MacMillan, Brad Rogers, and Lowery can actually get close to their normal football condition, things change radically.

Nolan gives us back a pocket. Rogers gives us back a FB option. Lowery gives us a lockdown Nickel package.
Click to expand...

What is the status on Nolan? When do we expect him to play?
 
I understand injuries can take a toll and we have some, but we have a relatively weak schedule thus year. 9 - 3. We have very talented coaches on both sides of the ball. They need to use their talent on game day and we will be just fine.
 
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