Hillcrest1981
Well-Known Member
I have no idea what all those other numbers are. I think i'm good on SOS "strength of schedule" but what on earth is the column labeled "Luck"?
Iowa up to 14th in RPI
- Thread starter Hillcrest1981
- Start date
I assume you are talking about KenPom, the luck rating is basically a figure to account for why his predictions can be off.
For example, based on Iowa's ranking, they should have a better record than they do. The difference is tossed into the luck stat. Basically means you generally lose some close games.
For example, based on Iowa's ranking, they should have a better record than they do. The difference is tossed into the luck stat. Basically means you generally lose some close games.
bcl20
Well-Known Member
Sports statisticians basically attribute losing close games to luck. Essentially a lot of things happen in sports that are out of your control ( officiating, bounces, etc) and because of this there is an element of luck to losing or winning close games. This had to be an attempt to chart if you're lucky or un lucky. Iowa gets a low luck rating often it seems.
IlpYGwoeBk
Well-Known Member
Yeah, to clarify, Iowa is 14th in kenpom. They are 23rd in the RPI. I believe some committee members do look at kenpom, but RPI is still kind of the official metric that is used.
Iowa is usually better in kenpom than RPI because they tend to lose a lot of close games. Which is why they are also usually low in the luck rating as well.
Iowa is usually better in kenpom than RPI because they tend to lose a lot of close games. Which is why they are also usually low in the luck rating as well.
IlpYGwoeBk
Well-Known Member
Yeah, there's no real way to quantify what is actual luck and what is just doing the little things right or being disciplined in late game situations.
An interesting case is Providence. They are 13-1 and have an 8-1 record in games decided by 8 points or less. RPI says awesome, you won almost all those games! So they are 4th in the RPI. Kenpom says wow, you played a lot of somewhat close games and teams don't usually do that exceptionally well in close games, so they are 35th and rank very high in "luck".
The truth is surely somewhere in between, but it's always nice to have different data points to get a more well rounded view of what might actually be the truth.
RPI also thinks that ISU is better than Iowa because ISU beat us. While kenpom is going to say that a one point loss on the road at ISU is actually a good indicator that Iowa is the better team and would be favored at a neutral site - since home court advantage is worth 3-4 points.
Fanbases will generally latch onto whatever system tells them their team is the best, but it's always interesting to compare and contrast.
An interesting case is Providence. They are 13-1 and have an 8-1 record in games decided by 8 points or less. RPI says awesome, you won almost all those games! So they are 4th in the RPI. Kenpom says wow, you played a lot of somewhat close games and teams don't usually do that exceptionally well in close games, so they are 35th and rank very high in "luck".
The truth is surely somewhere in between, but it's always nice to have different data points to get a more well rounded view of what might actually be the truth.
RPI also thinks that ISU is better than Iowa because ISU beat us. While kenpom is going to say that a one point loss on the road at ISU is actually a good indicator that Iowa is the better team and would be favored at a neutral site - since home court advantage is worth 3-4 points.
Fanbases will generally latch onto whatever system tells them their team is the best, but it's always interesting to compare and contrast.
HawkeyeMike23
Banned
Up to 18th in the RPI today and will be even higher after the Purdue game, we're a tourney lock already. Good work on the scheduling this year.
mopkins
King Kong
While they're not a "lock" for the tourney already I love the fact that they scheduled some really tough opponents in the non conference. one of the toughest non-conferences in the nation. Much better than plowing through a crappy non-con
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
Why?
HawkeyeMHA
Well-Known Member
nice. I haven't been keeping up on all that.good stuff
Now up to #12 on Kenpom after the win at Purdue ... six spots ahead of the Cyclowns who slip to #18.
http://kenpom.com
http://kenpom.com
HawkeyeMHA
Well-Known Member
The greatest team to ever put on Ronald McDonald uniforms. Isu dream team. Laffer taffer
