Iowa Offense: Statistical Look Since 2001

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
Given that Ken O'Keefe's name is getting thrown out there for the UConn job by ESPN's Joe Schad, and it's nothing more than that right now, it has spawned another round of Ken O'Keefe bashing.

The statistical data is there to have long ago supported a change at coordinator if that is what Kirk Ferentz wanted to do, which is why I contend the Iowa offense is what it is at Kirk's bidding, not necessarily due to O'Keefe's philosophical outlook.

I can't remember exactly what Kaldenberg did on this a few weeks back on the boards (EDIT: Here is the link to his work, which also juxtaposes defensive numbers), so I went into the archives and looked up these numbers. They are Iowa's yards and points per game in the season listed, along with where that ranked in the NCAA that given year...there have been between 117 and 120 teams in FBS..so a ranking of 60 is about middle of the road average.


2001
Total Offense: 398.45 (45th)
Scoring Offense: 33.82 (22nd)

2002
Total Offense: 424.46 (13th)
Scoring Offense: 37.23 (7th)

2003
Total Offense: 334.08 (92nd)
Scoring Offense: 28.69 (41st)

2004
Total Offense: 312.67 (101st)
Scoring Offense: 24.33 (68th)

2005
Total Offense: 432.42 (22nd)
Scoring Offense: 30.00 (36th)

2006
Total Offense: 383.31 (27th)
Scoring Offense: 23.85 (58th)

2007
Total Offense: 316.33 (109th)
Scoring Offense: 18.50 (110th)

2008
Total Offense: 370.38 (53rd)
Scoring Offense: 30.31 (33rd)

2009
Total Offense: 336.31 (89th)
Scoring Offense: 23.15 (86th)

2010 as of end of regular season
Total Offense: 382.92 (57th)
Scoring Offense: 28.92 (49th)

So Iowa has been 'above average' in total offense 6 of 10 years, and above average in scoring offense 7 of 10 years. My guess is they have been 'above average' in scoring defense 10 out of those 10 years, and downright elite 7 of those 10 years.

Kirk Ferentz plays the percentages. Run the ball first, set up play action, control the ball if you can, don't turn it over, punt isn't a bad four letter word, and have excellent special teams with a defense that forces you to be perfect three or four drives per game to score, and even then, you might have to settle for a field goal.

That 'approach' has yielded an average of 8.4 wins per year over the past decade, the best average wins per any ten year span at Iowa since the end of World War I and before the Great Depression.

That just is what it is, and is not any sort of excuse for missed opportunities this year.

IF KOK should land a head coaching job somewhere, I strongly believe the next OC at Iowa is going to run an offense that is mostly identical to what we have seen the past 12 years.

Sure, there will be nuances with a new person calling the plays, but the core will be the same. I would bet on it.

So for the folks that are slightly euphoric at the notion of a new OC, you might want to reel that in a bit.

By the way, in the history of Iowa football, 11 teams have averaged 30.0 points per game or more; 4 of those 11 have come in the last 10 seasons.

One addition...I have seen people say that KOK was a wide open spread coach at his previous stops when he was an HC...I can't say for sure he was or wasn't, but go to the 7 minute mark of this clip to see some offensive highlights from KOK's 1996 title season as an HC...he had a lot of success at this school...and the sets were pretty traditional.

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fsDIijcAkg[/ame]
 
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JonDMiller said:
IF KOK should land a head coaching job somewhere, I strongly believe the next OC at Iowa is going to run an offense that is mostly identical to what we have seen the past 12 years.
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Then at the very least, people will wake up to the fact that Ferentz's offensive philosophy is holding us back, and there's really no excuse for it when the rules, college and pro, encourage you to score.
 
silvanthalas said:
Then at the very least, people will wake up to the fact that Ferentz's offensive philosophy is holding us back, and there's really no excuse for it when the rules, college and pro, encourage you to score.
Click to expand...

"Holding us back."

You say that as if its a guarantee that a change in philosophy is going to mean a guarantee of more wins, when it's simply not a guarantee.

Again, Iowa has averaged 8.4 wins per year over the past decade...the best 10 year span for any decade since 1917-1926.
 
Ferentz also stays out of the play calling on gameday for the most part. I love the offense and I thought at the press conference he had a quote talking about how flexible it can be. I think that KOK sometimes gets in his own way calling plays. I think he is an inconsistent playcaller and part Iowa's poor record when trailing could be laid at his feet. When Iowa plays a defense that is willing to gamble or has them very well scouted they struggle. I think he is poor at making adjustments drive to drive.
I have heard he is a very good teacher from multiple people- a couple of former players and some high school coaches. I would hope he could get the UConn job, and I am sure he could be successful.
But I am not worried KOK being irreplaceable. I think there is one qualified candidate on staff, and other coaches who would jump at the OC position at Iowa.
 
I think the problem you see with Iowa's offense is that there's so little margin of error. We have to be fundamentally perfect, most times playing with less than 5* talent. And like you said, we have to have excellent special teams and defense to carry us in years where we're not perfect.
I think for me personally my frustration generally comes from the situational calls. Short and distance sideline routes, goal line fades, etc. When that's simply not what we do. And the fact than we can be so damn predictable frustrates the hell out of me too.
 
I don't think most fans believe the Iowa offense is horrible.

It's the 5-6 offensive plays a game that every fan in the stadium is asking "why?"
3rd and 10 and we throw a 3 yard pass.
3rd and 15 and we run the ball.

3rd and 1 and we decide to throw the ball when they haven't stopped the run all year.

Overall, the offense is average, as the numbers indicate.
If KOK stays, I won't lose any sleep. If he leaves, I won't lose any sleep.
He's not the reason this team wins 10 games or 6 games.
 
The interesting aspect of this is, should KOK get a head coaching job, I will predict he will be a lot more wide open on offense....as he was the last time he was a head coach.

Won't that really stick a knife in the side of the KOK critics?
 
JonDMiller said:
"Holding us back."

You say that as if its a guarantee that a change in philosophy is going to mean a guarantee of more wins, when it's simply not a guarantee.

Again, Iowa has averaged 8.4 wins per year over the past decade...the best 10 year span for any decade since 1917-1926.
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a misleading stat.

they play more games now than they ever did.

give me the best decade winning percentage. Thats a more telling stat
 
Imlivingthedream said:
a misleading stat.

they play more games now than they ever did.

give me the best decade winning percentage. Thats a more telling stat
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Iowa has played a grand total total of 3 or 4 more games than they did 1981-1990, and 1982-1991, spans where they averaged 8.3 and 8.1 wins per year over the ten years listed. And those older years included ties...guess they could have won all those...probably not, however.

Good try, but have been sitting dead red on that heater ;)
 
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JonDMiller said:
You say that as if its a guarantee that a change in philosophy is going to mean a guarantee of more wins, when it's simply not a guarantee.
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Yeah, and you defend any thought of changes to the coaching staff as if it's automatically going to end up bad.

Ferentz leaves? Remember Davis/Alford!
KOK leaves? Remember Davis/Alford!
The water boy leaves? Remember Davis/Alford!

And I thought my glass was only half full.
 
JonDMiller said:
Iowa has played a grand total total of 2 more games than they did 1981-1990, and 1982-1991, spans where they averaged 8.3 and 8.1 wins per year over the ten years listed.

Good try, but have been sitting dead red on that heater ;)
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sigh.

how many regular season games did they play in the 50s?

how about the 40s?


Im guessing Evys winning pct still leads the pack.
 
Imlivingthedream said:
sigh.

how many regular season games did they play in the 50s?

how about the 40s?


Im guessing Evys winning pct still leads the pack.
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You must think I don't anticipate questions like yours.

Iowa 1952-1960, entire Evy span: .6506
Iowa 2001-2010: .6746

Pick a span...any span ;)

The 40's? Seriously? .3908
 
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JonDMiller said:
You must think I don't anticipate questions like yours.

Iowa 1952-1960, entire Evy span: .6506
Iowa 2001-2010: .6746

Pick a span...any span ;)

The 40's? Seriously? .3908

To repeat, you will not find a 10 year span as successful from a winning perspective as the 10 years Iowa has just completed, unless you go back to 1917-1926.
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Evy didnt get three non conference cupcakes every year.

I doubt he missed OSU four times in the span either. :)
 
The 10-year span of 1982-1990 had a winning percentage of right at .700...but that included five ties. Would have been fun to watch Hayden operate in that setting.
 
You never know what to expect in coaching changes. One thing that is certain is that stability is key to long term success in most cases. If KOK were to ever leave, I would hope the next OC would be in it for the long haul so not to cause confusion in changing philosophies from year to year.
 
In looking at the games from Evy's time, I think there was just one season where they played more teams with losing records than had winning records. the 1958 team beat 6 teams that won at least six games...and back then, that is equivalent to an 8 win team today.
 
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