JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
MINNESOTA NCAA STAT RANKINGS
IOWA NCAA STAT RANKINGS
WHEN MINNESOTA HAS THE BALL: This has been one of Minnesota's biggest problems during the 2011 season; what to do with the ball when they have it. To whit..
-292 yards in a home loss to FCS member North Dakota State
-177 yards, eight first downs and zero points in loss at Michigan
-213 yards, 11 first downs in loss at Purdue
-254 yards, 11 first downs in home loss to Nebraska last week
This team also has a home loss against New Mexico State, which is not a good resume builder. They are 1-6 with their lone win coming at home against Miami of Ohio. Yes, they raised a few eyebrows with their 19-17 season opening loss at USC, a moral victory if there ever was one...however the New Mexico State and North Dakota State losses make that game seem like it took place years ago.
The Gophers are 112th in total offense out of 120 teams in the FBS, 110th in scoring offense and 109th in passing offense.
Quarterback Marqueis Gray is completing just 48.7% of his passes this year, which does not bode well for the Gophers in any game. Iowa has shown some susceptibility against the short passing attack this year as well as in past Hawkeye seasons. Iowa's defensive approach, what some fans refer to as the 'bend don't break' forces opposing quarterbacks to make good decisions several times per drive as well as display a level of good to very good accuracy. Simply put, Gray has not shown an ability to do any of those things consistently this season.
In his last three games he has completed just 44 percent of his passes. He has gained 438 yards with his legs, going over 100 yards in two games this year (123 vs New Mexico State and 181 in their lone win against Miami) and he can be tough to bring down at 6-4, 240.
If I am Jerry Kill, I put together an offensive game plan that emphasizes a lot of running plays. Inside and outside zones, inside hat on hat schemes, etc. I look at the game film from the Iowa-Penn State game and give it my best shot. It's the only way I see Minnesota winning this game and they will still need the Hawkeye offense to spit the bit.
WHEN IOWA IS ON DEFENSE: I expect Iowa to come out in its standard 4-3 scheme to start and evaluate how much success their front four will have against the Minnesota running game. I think the Gophers will try to run out of three and four wide sets, emptying the box of linebackers as much as possible, which would be a good strategy against this year's Iowa defense. If the Gophers are having some success, then you may see Iowa stunt some run blitzes their way. I really don't think it's much more complicated than that given Minnesota's lack of a passing game to this point in the season.
Iowa should also expect to see some empty backfield sets with Gray in shotgun that are designed quarterback draws or single-wing style running plays with Gray as the ball carrier. the secondary shouldn't be tested all that much on Saturday and Jordan Bernstine may have to play a big role in helping to slow down the Gopher ground game. I would look for him to have a high tackle day.
WHEN MINNESOTA IS ON DEFENSE: The Gophers have the worst offense in the Big Ten and the second worst defense in the Big Ten. Nebraska and Michigan put up more than 500 yards of offense against Minnesota and Michigan could have hit 800 if they wanted to. New Mexico State put up over 400 yards against the Gophers.
They are 96th in the nation against the run, allowing 196 yards per game on the ground. They are 110th in total defense and 115th in scoring defense, allowing nearly 36 points per game, which is what Iowa has averaged thus far in 2011.
Minnesota is also 118th out of 120 teams in sacks this year and 93rd in tackles for loss.
WHEN IOWA HAS THE BALL: The last time Minnesota played against James Vandenberg, they sent more blitzes against the Hawkeyes than any team I can remember. It worked, as the Hawks scored just 12 points but the Gophers failed to dent the scoreboard in the 2009 regular season finale.
Based on what we have seen from Minnesota this year, you cannot expect them to play things straight up. The Iowa offensive line has a decided advantage in this game so the Gophers will have to commit more personnel assets to stop the Iowa running game.
When we have seen that this year, the Hawkeyes have made their opponents pay for it, with the exception of the second half against Iowa State where Iowa failed to attack the one on one looks they had in the passing game and instead chose to run into eight-man fronts.
However, this is game eight and Vandenberg is showing a lot of confidence in his receivers and the Iowa coaching staff is showing a lot of confidence in Vandenberg. When you 'overrule' your offensive coordinator's play call two plays in a row like Vandenberg did last week when he made back to back audibles to fade patterns to Marvin McNutt, it shows you that everyone is confident in the quarterback, including the quarterback.
I would be surprised to see Iowa come out throwing the ball often in the first quarter; I think they'll throw it if the defense presents those looks, but I expect Iowa to attempt to assert its dominance on the ground. This is the key to Iowa football under Kirk Ferentz; run the ball or present the threat of the run to set up the play action passing game.
Minnesota will be aggressive with their blitzes in this game, both to stop the run as well as to try to disrupt the passing game. As you can see from the sack statistics, they have yet to figure that out consistently.
My guess is Keenan Davis may not be able to play in this game due to the ankle injury he suffered late against Indiana last week, so Kevonte Martin-Manley may get flexed out to his position and Damon Bullock could move back to the receiving corps and see some time in the slot. Or perhaps Marcus Grant reps out wide as he has had more work at that position this year.
If Davis can't play, I do expect more power looks from Iowa. More I-Formation with the fullback in play as Brad Rogers keeps climbing the ladder as well as some two-tight possibilities. The more I think about it, this might be the game where Iowa's tight ends have a 'break out' performance.
SPECIAL TEAMS: The Gophers are in the Top 40 in both kickoff and punt returns and 24th in both punt and kickoff coverage. These are areas that coaches refer to as 'heart statistics' or something akin to that, which is why Kirk Ferentz has repeatedly said this week that this Gopher team is showing heart.
If Keenan Davis can't play for Iowa, look for Jordan Canzeri to replace him on kickoff returns alongside Jordan Bernstine.
SUMMARY: This is Iowa's last 'tune up' opportunity before the month of November begins and the daunting schedule that awaits. Minnesota is not a good football team. My eight-year old daughter asked me for my thoughts on the game this week, as she likes to see me reenact my one-minute prediction I do for Channel 13 in Des Moines. After I shared it with her, she said 'Dad, that was not very nice. How would you like it if someone said the Hawkeyes were a bad football team? To which I told her that sometimes the truth may not be nice, but it's still the truth.
Minnesota is a bad team, but I don't think the Hawks run away and hide. They have the firepower to do so, but Vandenberg has never won on the road as a starter (three starts) and this year's Iowa team has not yet won on the road. I'd like to see that happen before I give them the nod of an offensive outbreak.
If they can bust loose for 40 or more points and push the 500 yard mark for the game, then I think they'll be adequately ready for next month's final exams. The offense scored 34 points against the 10th 'best' defense in the league and 44 against the 11th 'best' defense in the league.
A win gets the Hawkeyes to a bowl game and the coaches only care about what's next on the schedule.
"License to kill gophers by the government of the United Nations. Man, free to kill gophers at will. To kill, you must know your enemy, and in this case my enemy is a varmint. And a varmint will never quit - ever. They're like the Viet Cong - Varmint Cong. So you have to fall back on superior intelligence and superior firepower. And that's all she wrote." - Carl Spackler, Caddyshack
IOWA 31, Minnesota 17.
If you live in or near the Des Moines Metro and are in the market for a new car, please give Hummel's Nissan on the Merle Hay Auto Row a visit. Great service and great products. The last three automobile purchases I have made have been Nissan's and I have had zero complaints. We thank Hummel's for sponsoring our Iowa football prediction articles this football season and for their support of HawkeyeNation.com
IOWA NCAA STAT RANKINGS
WHEN MINNESOTA HAS THE BALL: This has been one of Minnesota's biggest problems during the 2011 season; what to do with the ball when they have it. To whit..
-292 yards in a home loss to FCS member North Dakota State
-177 yards, eight first downs and zero points in loss at Michigan
-213 yards, 11 first downs in loss at Purdue
-254 yards, 11 first downs in home loss to Nebraska last week
This team also has a home loss against New Mexico State, which is not a good resume builder. They are 1-6 with their lone win coming at home against Miami of Ohio. Yes, they raised a few eyebrows with their 19-17 season opening loss at USC, a moral victory if there ever was one...however the New Mexico State and North Dakota State losses make that game seem like it took place years ago.
The Gophers are 112th in total offense out of 120 teams in the FBS, 110th in scoring offense and 109th in passing offense.
Quarterback Marqueis Gray is completing just 48.7% of his passes this year, which does not bode well for the Gophers in any game. Iowa has shown some susceptibility against the short passing attack this year as well as in past Hawkeye seasons. Iowa's defensive approach, what some fans refer to as the 'bend don't break' forces opposing quarterbacks to make good decisions several times per drive as well as display a level of good to very good accuracy. Simply put, Gray has not shown an ability to do any of those things consistently this season.
In his last three games he has completed just 44 percent of his passes. He has gained 438 yards with his legs, going over 100 yards in two games this year (123 vs New Mexico State and 181 in their lone win against Miami) and he can be tough to bring down at 6-4, 240.
If I am Jerry Kill, I put together an offensive game plan that emphasizes a lot of running plays. Inside and outside zones, inside hat on hat schemes, etc. I look at the game film from the Iowa-Penn State game and give it my best shot. It's the only way I see Minnesota winning this game and they will still need the Hawkeye offense to spit the bit.
WHEN IOWA IS ON DEFENSE: I expect Iowa to come out in its standard 4-3 scheme to start and evaluate how much success their front four will have against the Minnesota running game. I think the Gophers will try to run out of three and four wide sets, emptying the box of linebackers as much as possible, which would be a good strategy against this year's Iowa defense. If the Gophers are having some success, then you may see Iowa stunt some run blitzes their way. I really don't think it's much more complicated than that given Minnesota's lack of a passing game to this point in the season.
Iowa should also expect to see some empty backfield sets with Gray in shotgun that are designed quarterback draws or single-wing style running plays with Gray as the ball carrier. the secondary shouldn't be tested all that much on Saturday and Jordan Bernstine may have to play a big role in helping to slow down the Gopher ground game. I would look for him to have a high tackle day.
WHEN MINNESOTA IS ON DEFENSE: The Gophers have the worst offense in the Big Ten and the second worst defense in the Big Ten. Nebraska and Michigan put up more than 500 yards of offense against Minnesota and Michigan could have hit 800 if they wanted to. New Mexico State put up over 400 yards against the Gophers.
They are 96th in the nation against the run, allowing 196 yards per game on the ground. They are 110th in total defense and 115th in scoring defense, allowing nearly 36 points per game, which is what Iowa has averaged thus far in 2011.
Minnesota is also 118th out of 120 teams in sacks this year and 93rd in tackles for loss.
WHEN IOWA HAS THE BALL: The last time Minnesota played against James Vandenberg, they sent more blitzes against the Hawkeyes than any team I can remember. It worked, as the Hawks scored just 12 points but the Gophers failed to dent the scoreboard in the 2009 regular season finale.
Based on what we have seen from Minnesota this year, you cannot expect them to play things straight up. The Iowa offensive line has a decided advantage in this game so the Gophers will have to commit more personnel assets to stop the Iowa running game.
When we have seen that this year, the Hawkeyes have made their opponents pay for it, with the exception of the second half against Iowa State where Iowa failed to attack the one on one looks they had in the passing game and instead chose to run into eight-man fronts.
However, this is game eight and Vandenberg is showing a lot of confidence in his receivers and the Iowa coaching staff is showing a lot of confidence in Vandenberg. When you 'overrule' your offensive coordinator's play call two plays in a row like Vandenberg did last week when he made back to back audibles to fade patterns to Marvin McNutt, it shows you that everyone is confident in the quarterback, including the quarterback.
I would be surprised to see Iowa come out throwing the ball often in the first quarter; I think they'll throw it if the defense presents those looks, but I expect Iowa to attempt to assert its dominance on the ground. This is the key to Iowa football under Kirk Ferentz; run the ball or present the threat of the run to set up the play action passing game.
Minnesota will be aggressive with their blitzes in this game, both to stop the run as well as to try to disrupt the passing game. As you can see from the sack statistics, they have yet to figure that out consistently.
My guess is Keenan Davis may not be able to play in this game due to the ankle injury he suffered late against Indiana last week, so Kevonte Martin-Manley may get flexed out to his position and Damon Bullock could move back to the receiving corps and see some time in the slot. Or perhaps Marcus Grant reps out wide as he has had more work at that position this year.
If Davis can't play, I do expect more power looks from Iowa. More I-Formation with the fullback in play as Brad Rogers keeps climbing the ladder as well as some two-tight possibilities. The more I think about it, this might be the game where Iowa's tight ends have a 'break out' performance.
SPECIAL TEAMS: The Gophers are in the Top 40 in both kickoff and punt returns and 24th in both punt and kickoff coverage. These are areas that coaches refer to as 'heart statistics' or something akin to that, which is why Kirk Ferentz has repeatedly said this week that this Gopher team is showing heart.
If Keenan Davis can't play for Iowa, look for Jordan Canzeri to replace him on kickoff returns alongside Jordan Bernstine.
SUMMARY: This is Iowa's last 'tune up' opportunity before the month of November begins and the daunting schedule that awaits. Minnesota is not a good football team. My eight-year old daughter asked me for my thoughts on the game this week, as she likes to see me reenact my one-minute prediction I do for Channel 13 in Des Moines. After I shared it with her, she said 'Dad, that was not very nice. How would you like it if someone said the Hawkeyes were a bad football team? To which I told her that sometimes the truth may not be nice, but it's still the truth.
Minnesota is a bad team, but I don't think the Hawks run away and hide. They have the firepower to do so, but Vandenberg has never won on the road as a starter (three starts) and this year's Iowa team has not yet won on the road. I'd like to see that happen before I give them the nod of an offensive outbreak.
If they can bust loose for 40 or more points and push the 500 yard mark for the game, then I think they'll be adequately ready for next month's final exams. The offense scored 34 points against the 10th 'best' defense in the league and 44 against the 11th 'best' defense in the league.
A win gets the Hawkeyes to a bowl game and the coaches only care about what's next on the schedule.
"License to kill gophers by the government of the United Nations. Man, free to kill gophers at will. To kill, you must know your enemy, and in this case my enemy is a varmint. And a varmint will never quit - ever. They're like the Viet Cong - Varmint Cong. So you have to fall back on superior intelligence and superior firepower. And that's all she wrote." - Carl Spackler, Caddyshack
IOWA 31, Minnesota 17.
If you live in or near the Des Moines Metro and are in the market for a new car, please give Hummel's Nissan on the Merle Hay Auto Row a visit. Great service and great products. The last three automobile purchases I have made have been Nissan's and I have had zero complaints. We thank Hummel's for sponsoring our Iowa football prediction articles this football season and for their support of HawkeyeNation.com
