Iowa is a 4pt underdog

J

JHHawk

Well-Known Member
vs Michigan this weekend according to the article in HawkCentral yesterday. They cited Bodog as their source. The guy at Bodog said that 85% of the money was coming in on Michigan,and that the book will be with Iowa.

Now, I always thought that the book set the line to balance the betting action. So, clearly the book likes Iowa to keep this game close but the betting public disagrees. Now, that will leave the book exposed by 35%...is that normal?

I always thought the book just made their money off the vig,but they actually have an exposed position in this game,right?

I thought the line would move to even it out...but I guess not.

Does the house know more that the average public? If I was a bettor,I guess I would be getting on Iowa.
 
The Hawks should have easily beaten Minnesota this year. I think everyone agrees with that. Now a lot of people think, because we lost to MN, we will lose to Michigan. That doesn't make any sense to me. I think we will win. Not because we should have beat MN, but because we are at home and Michigan is at our level. I'm pretty sure Vegas believes this too.
 
Its an interesting line to say the least.


Michigan doesn't give up a lot of points (on average). We don't score a lot of points (on average).

We have two common opponents (MN and NW). They beat NW by 18 while we beat them by 10 and they clobbered MN by by 58 and we all know what happened to us. The only truly 'good' team that we've played this year is PSU and we scored a whopping 3 points.


They are a running team, we are not a good team against the run.

Michigan is 6-2 ATS this year. We are 3-4 ATS. We have not been a homedog yet this year.

The weather on Saturday will be in the mid-50s at game time with a pretty good wind (14 mph). That (in theory) means that the passing game for both teams will be sketchy at best. Michigan doesn't rely on the pass to setup anything. We rely on the pass somewhat so the edge goes to Michigan.

Michigan is playing for a division championship. We are playing for the tidy bowl.
 
I saw that today while debating on what teams to pick for my 4 teamer. I didn't touch it I couldn't bring myself to bet against the Hawkeyes but seems like a no brainer... The odds makers must think our Offense will match scores and rise to the occasions, I hope they are right....
 
Iowa gets 5.5 points for being at home or something like according to Ken MIiller. Essentially what the line says is that Michigan is roughly 10 points better than Iowa on a neutral field. Of course Vegas likes to set the line to where they get equal action on both sides!

Here are my picks for this week, I have Michigan covering along with 7 other games.

Bet More Win More
 
hawkeye12345 said:
Michigan doesn't give up a lot of points (on average). We don't score a lot of points (on average).

Michigan is playing for a division championship. We are playing for the tidy bowl.
Click to expand...

I agree that a lot of what you say does indicate Michigan covering four points, but I think these two items are inaccurate. Just because we are [very] unlikely to win out does not mean we are not playing for a division championship. If anything, this game is more of a must-win for us. Also, our scoring offense is upwards of 30 ppg. Just because a lot of that has come against the Indianas and Northwesterns of the world doesn't mean "we don't score a lot of points."

I do agree that Michigan has the more athletic, aggressive team. However, their D hasn't necessarily shut down anyone of consequence, and never underestimate the 'Denard-can't-throw' factor.
 
"Michigan is at our level." Michigan has a defense, Iowa has none; none whatsoever. Michigan will gameplan and do whatever they need to do to attack Iowa's weaknesses; Iowa will play the same as they have for the past 11 years regardless of what the other team's weaknesses are.

Michigan has not reached Iowa's level of play this year. Michigan beats teams it is supposed to beat, whereas Iowa loses to those teams...year in year out.
 
Cover3 said:
I agree that a lot of what you say does indicate Michigan covering four points, but I think these two items are inaccurate. Just because we are [very] unlikely to win out does not mean we are not playing for a division championship. If anything, this game is more of a must-win for us. Also, our scoring offense is upwards of 30 ppg. Just because a lot of that has come against the Indianas and Northwesterns of the world doesn't mean "we don't score a lot of points."

I do agree that Michigan has the more athletic, aggressive team. However, their D hasn't necessarily shut down anyone of consequence, and never underestimate the 'Denard-can't-throw' factor.
Click to expand...

Opponents Sagarin Rating (Iowa) followed by the points given up by Iowa:
Tenn Tech - 156 - 7 pts
ISU - 45 - 44 pts
Pitt - 67 - 27 pts
Lous-Mon - 138 - 17 pts
PSU - 22 - 13 pts
NW - 94 - 31 pts
IU - 149 - 24 pts
MN - 114 - 22 pts
AVG: 98.125

Opponents Sagarin Rating (Michigan):
Western Mich - 71
ND - 26
EMU - 97
SDSU - 60
MN - 114
NW - 94
MSU - 20
Purdue - 64
AVG: 68.25

Iowa - 65
Michigan - 17

On paper, this is the toughest game that Iowa has faced so far this year. On paper, Michigan has played four teams that are ranked better than us. In those four games, Michigan won by an average of 9.75 points. This includes the 14 points loss to MSU. If you remove that loss then the average jumps to 17.667 margin of victory.

Again, on paper, the Michigan D is on par with PSU (3rd v 5th) for points against on the season. We scored 3 points against PSU.

We are the 41st best scoring D in the country. Below is a list of Michigan oppents, their nat'l D ranking and the points Michigan scored against them:
PU - 31st - 36 points
MSU - 6th - 14 points
NW - 90th - 43 points
MN - 104th - 58 points
SDSU - 53rd - 28 points
EMU - 48th - 31 points
ND - 27th - 35 points
WMU - 54th - 34 points

The final score to this game will be 31 - 10 with our points coming on the opening drive and late in the 4th quarter. Outside of those bookend scoring drives, we are going to look like lost puppies trying to find a bone. They are going to stuff the run and bracket McNutt. Our coaches will continue to run the ball and we will probably end up averaging around 2.3 ypc on 35+ carries.
 
Last edited:
Wow, nice job on the stats. I really want to be able to defend this defense and say we have a puncher's chance, but I'm not sure even with a couple blows below the belt we can win this game.

hawkeye12345 said:
Opponents Sagarin Rating (Iowa) followed by the points given up by Iowa:
Tenn Tech - 156 - 7 pts
ISU - 45 - 44 pts
Pitt - 67 - 27 pts
Lous-Mon - 138 - 17 pts
PSU - 22 - 13 pts
NW - 94 - 31 pts
IU - 149 - 24 pts
MN - 114 - 22 pts
AVG: 98.125

Opponents Sagarin Rating (Michigan):
Western Mich - 71
ND - 26
EMU - 97
SDSU - 60
MN - 114
NW - 94
MSU - 20
Purdue - 64
AVG: 68.25

Iowa - 65
Michigan - 17

On paper, this is the toughest game that Iowa has faced so far this year. On paper, Michigan has played four teams that are ranked better than us. In those four games, Michigan won by an average of 9.75 points. This includes the 14 points loss to MSU. If you remove that loss then the average jumps to 17.667 margin of victory.

Again, on paper, the Michigan D is on par with PSU (3rd v 5th) for points against on the season. We scored 3 points against PSU.

We are the 41st best scoring D in the country. Below is a list of Michigan oppents, their nat'l D ranking and the points Michigan scored against them:
PU - 31st - 36 points
MSU - 6th - 14 points
NW - 90th - 43 points
MN - 104th - 58 points
SDSU - 53rd - 28 points
EMU - 48th - 31 points
ND - 27th - 35 points
WMU - 54th - 34 points

The final score to this game will be 31 - 10 with our points coming on the opening drive and late in the 4th quarter. Outside of those bookend scoring drives, we are going to look like lost puppies trying to find a bone. They are going to stuff the run and bracket McNutt. Our coaches will continue to run the ball and we will probably end up averaging around 2.3 ypc on 35+ carries.
Click to expand...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Share this page

Top