Iowa Football Preview, Prediction: Upstart Illinois at Kinnick for Senior Day
- Thread starter RobHowe
- Start date
I have mentioned this before, but the stats have become even more overwhelming this season. In the new-Kirk era (2015 and beyond, i.e. the last 5 seasons), what is Iowa's record as a Vegas favorite?
39-4 according to teamrankings.com (90.7% win%). I think those losses include 2016 NDSU, 2017 Purdue, and probably a couple of the NW losses.
Over that same span, Clemson is best as a favorite (61-2, 96.8%). Alabama is #2 (63-5, 92.7%). Iowa is 3rd.
In short, Iowa wins the games that Vegas thinks it should win. As an underdog, however, Iowa is right in the middle of the pack over that same stretch (5-15, 25%).
This flies in the face of the "Iowa always loses a game it shouldn't, and they always win a game they shouldn't" narrative. In the last 5 years, Iowa has won almost all of the games it "should" (according to Vegas). In terms of ability to pull an upset, they are well behind other P5 teams such as: Ok St (12-7 as dogs), Wash St (10-11), or Northwestern (16-18).
Iowa is actually one of the top teams ATS over that same span as well (59.5%, 9th best among all of FBS).
Take Iowa and the money line. If you want to take Iowa and give the points, broad trends are in your favor that way too.
@RobHowe , how are you doing with your Iowa picks ATS and straight up this year? It seems like straight-up you have pretty much been on the money (did you pick a win vs. PSU?).
39-4 according to teamrankings.com (90.7% win%). I think those losses include 2016 NDSU, 2017 Purdue, and probably a couple of the NW losses.
Over that same span, Clemson is best as a favorite (61-2, 96.8%). Alabama is #2 (63-5, 92.7%). Iowa is 3rd.
In short, Iowa wins the games that Vegas thinks it should win. As an underdog, however, Iowa is right in the middle of the pack over that same stretch (5-15, 25%).
This flies in the face of the "Iowa always loses a game it shouldn't, and they always win a game they shouldn't" narrative. In the last 5 years, Iowa has won almost all of the games it "should" (according to Vegas). In terms of ability to pull an upset, they are well behind other P5 teams such as: Ok St (12-7 as dogs), Wash St (10-11), or Northwestern (16-18).
Iowa is actually one of the top teams ATS over that same span as well (59.5%, 9th best among all of FBS).
Take Iowa and the money line. If you want to take Iowa and give the points, broad trends are in your favor that way too.
@RobHowe , how are you doing with your Iowa picks ATS and straight up this year? It seems like straight-up you have pretty much been on the money (did you pick a win vs. PSU?).
RobHowe
Administrator
Good question. I haven't kept track.
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
Great stuff @CP8. I think we have all gotten so used to old narrative that Iowa loses a game every year they shouldn't. I am guilty of that, but you are right, since 2015 we just haven't lost those games like we might have in the past. That record against the spread is really, really good considering that includes games like Minnesota where they are favored by 3, games vs ISU the last couple years were they were small favorites, etc.
Nice article Rob. Thanks for the stats CP87, those are very interesting.
As far as stats go, I cant find anything on this, but has there every been 2 teams where one beat the other by a really large margin and then lose to that team the next year? I would have to think that if Illinois beats us this year they would set some kind of record for largest point swing in a series, that is a lot to make up. Does anyone have anything on this?
As far as stats go, I cant find anything on this, but has there every been 2 teams where one beat the other by a really large margin and then lose to that team the next year? I would have to think that if Illinois beats us this year they would set some kind of record for largest point swing in a series, that is a lot to make up. Does anyone have anything on this?
Interesting question.
I do know that Iowa lost to Illinois 31-7 in 1989 and then beat them the following season 54-28. That is a 50 point swing.
Stanzi
Well-Known Member
I actually really like Iowa in this one much like I did when they played Northwestern. Now, Illinois' offense isn't dreadful like NW's, but it's still not good. They only average 330 yards of offense per game which is 50 yards less than our offense which we all know has been less than stellar. With the game being at Kinnick and Illinois only playing one good team on the road so far (Minnesota, who stomped them) I think everything lines up well for us.
Louisville beat the 'Cuse by 46 in 2017. The Orangmen returned the favor in 2018 (31 point victory). That is a swing of 77 points. Louisville replaced Petrino with Lorezno Ward between those 2 seasons.
USC beat Stanford by 22 in 2008, and Stanford won by 34 in 2009 (56 pt swing). No coaching changes involved, but Harbaugh was getting his legs under him (3rd season), and Carroll was on his way out (last season).
Those are the biggest I can find (thinking of big upsets, and then doing some searching on winsipdedia.com).
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
Think we'll be OK in this game but can't afford takeaways as some have pointed out in other threads. Ball security will be key and IL's defense is good at punching / pulling at the ball, and creating those takeaways as evidenced by some of their defensive stats. Colder temps could aid their cause Sat. May see more carries from our RB that is best at holding on to the ball. That may or may not be Goodson.
One of their LB's (Hansen) leads the country in forced fumbles.......2 against WI. He and a few others have been held out due to injuries recently but sounds like they could be back for IA.
One of their LB's (Hansen) leads the country in forced fumbles.......2 against WI. He and a few others have been held out due to injuries recently but sounds like they could be back for IA.
ClintonIAfan
Well-Known Member
Iowa 41
Fidgeting Illini 10
Fidgeting Illini 10
