Interesting Article by NFL player on Going for it on 4th and Conservative Coaches

[rpmhawk]

Why NFL Players Love A Coach Who Goes For It On Fourth Down, And Why They Hate Eric Mangini

Its an interesting take from someone who plays the game, and given some of the conversations and controversial decisions in the past year or so regarding the Hawks, I figured it was relevant.

My personal take: So not only do players like to play for a coach that will "go for it" now and then, the numbers in previously posted articles from BHGP etc have shown that running the 2min drill before a half or to prevent overtime leads to a favored result. It makes some of Ferentz' decisions all the more puzzling and worth scrutinizing.

 

[gonzoJM]

For whatever reason, I'm fascinated by these coaches that eschew conventional wisdom and go for it on 4th down. Here's another interesting article from 2006 about that very thing:

Easterbrook: Stop punting! - ESPN Page 2

Also, a study cited in the above article made it onto Belichick's desk, which played a part in him going for it on 4th down against Indy a few years ago. The study is a bit heavier reading, but pretty enlightening stuff. There's a link to it in the 5th paragraph.
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[Cover3]

Love the card-playing analogy, and he's totally right. If you play "by the book" blackjack, you will be lagging behind the house odds long-term. Make a couple of unconventional plays, and you can upset the odds if you make them at the right times.

In football, I would say you actually can beat the odds even more, because there are times when your reward:risk ratio is very high (i.e. hail mary from midfield at end of half; small odds of TD vs. microscopic odds of defensive TD).

 

[MoseSchrute]

If you can't make a 4th and 1 or 4th and inches, you deserve to lose anyway.

 

[Cover3]

If you can't make a 4th and 1 or 4th and inches, you deserve to lose anyway.

Agree, depending on field position and how your defense is playing. I think 4th and 1 is a "go for it" down almost anywhere outside your own 40. I bet the odds of making it are very high, especially if you do it enough to vary your playcalling and not sneak it every time. Doing it deep in your own territory will get you beat in the long run, but as you near or cross midfield the benefit:risk tilts heavily in the offense's favor I would imagine.

 

[hoffahawk]

Seemed to work out well for Atlanta on Sunday. There is a time and a place for it and let's not forget we have gone for it quite a bit this year. The two minute drill is another topic and a time and a place, on your own 3 isn't one of them.