ILLINOIS `23
- Thread starter NCHawker
- Start date
I honestly think they have. Certainly taking the last two games into context, they have turned the corner. On to what street? It's not like I think they've merged onto an expressway. I'll settle for a nice boulevard.
It will still come down to the defense. I mean, at some point, I fear they just won't be able to answer the bell. Not sure why. Because....flukes. A butterfly flapping it's wings in Lacona. Or whatever's served for breakfast. Also, my glass is usually half empty. On purpose. Because when my dire prophetics come true, I'm emotionally prepared. If they don't, well then...hey....pleasant surprise!
I would not want to be Illinois' defensive coordinator this week. You've got basically one film to look at. Well, two....if you count Northwestern as a launching pad for last week's game. And they have to prepare for the usual Iowa, not the Iowa of this year/last year. I'm betting they're approaching this game completely different than they would have thought about it 3 weeks ago.
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
Illinois' offense put up a lot of points against a horrible IU D in a game that was a track meet and went into OT. That game likely gave the Illinois O confidence, but hopefully false confidence. They won't have the same fortune against Iowa.
The three games before that, Illinois scored in the 20s against below average defenses. Before that, they only scored 7 at home against a pretty good Nebbie D and looked bad doing it.
A computer simulation probably says that Illinois scores around 10-14 points.
It again all comes down to Iowa's offense and whether it can play a clean game. If Iowa avoids turnovers and grinds out field position, It should win something like 17-10.
The three games before that, Illinois scored in the 20s against below average defenses. Before that, they only scored 7 at home against a pretty good Nebbie D and looked bad doing it.
A computer simulation probably says that Illinois scores around 10-14 points.
It again all comes down to Iowa's offense and whether it can play a clean game. If Iowa avoids turnovers and grinds out field position, It should win something like 17-10.
Wait a minute. You stated the Hawks have turned the corner offensively in the last 2 games.
How did the offense turn the corner against NW? The past game against Rutgers the looked good, especially in the 2nd half, but one game does not make a season or the past 3 seasons.
The O has a long way to go. With all this said, do what they did in the 2nd half against Rutgers and Iowa will win the final 2 games and look somewhat competitive in the championship game.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
My proprietary computer simulation has them scoring a maximum of 5. 3 on a legit FG, 2 on a safety we take late in the game to seal a 6-5 win. Ferentz is remembering the power of the intentional safety after that Northwestern debacle that he damned cost us trying to run this potent offense deep in our own territory.
I can't say that Iowa's turned a corner just yet... Last game was damn near perfect end of the day results wise. Had they scored a TD instead of thrown a pick that last possession of the 1st half it woulda been to me. To say they've turned a corner to me I'd want to see them do it again. And I don't expect to have no 3 and outs or 400 yards again. But something to where they winning the TOP battle and field position not to mention pts on the scoreboard will do it for me
Well, the last time we thought that was after 200 yards rushing vs. Wisconsin. We followed that up with the Minnesota stinker.
Last year Illinois blitzed the hell out of us, and had no way to respond. I expect they will do the same, but I think they are less talented in the back end, right? If we can beat the blitz for a couple big plays, that would probably be enough, but I cannot remember the last time our offense took advantage of an overly aggressive defense.
If we win, I think it will be via the defense forcing turnovers.
Not sure, but I think Lachey is our 2nd leading receiver.
Wundershozen
Well-Known Member
Hawkeyegamefilm mentioned that Iowa blitzed more than he ever remembers them doing vs. Rutgers, over 50% of defensive snaps by his reckoning.
What is the plan vs. Illinois? I would guess he goes the opposite direction, forcing the young quarterback to put the ball into small windows within their zone coverage. If we can get pressure with 4, along with a few well-timed blitzes, I could see their QB crashing back to reality.
What is the plan vs. Illinois? I would guess he goes the opposite direction, forcing the young quarterback to put the ball into small windows within their zone coverage. If we can get pressure with 4, along with a few well-timed blitzes, I could see their QB crashing back to reality.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
The Minnesota game was not a stinker, we won the game but had the win stolen by an overzealous replay dork. The offense did just what we needed it to do.
That punting differential is all I need to know.
NCHawker
Well-Known Member
This.
Rutgers allowed Iowa's offense to be serviceable last week because they stayed in their base D and rarely brought pressure...stupid mistake on their part, similar to Urban Meyer years ago when the Hawks put up 50+ on the Buckeyes.
Bielema won't make the same mistake. BUT, teams have been running vs the Illini, and blitzes also mean opportunities for big runs -- the Hawks will need to break a couple of those on Sat to win, cause I'm expecting the pass game to take a significant step backward.
The formula for beating the Hawks remains the same: bring pressure, don't turn the ball over, and don't have a high # of penalties. Do that, and you have at least a 50% chance of leaving Kinnick with a W...even in November. (See Nebraska last season.)
Against NW? Hill was 10 of 15. Not exactly racking up yards. But that's a better percentage than previous games. 100+ rushing yards. Again, an improvement over previous games.
Rutgers....400 yards. No 3 and outs in the 4th quarter. Or 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.
As I said, it appears they may have turned a corner. But I extended that analogy to include the fact that they simply turned the corner and moved off the dirty, sketchy, trashh filled back alley.
No clue where they are. We can safely say they aren't humming along on the expressway. I am hopeful they're on a nice smooth boulevard as opposed to a poorly maintained, pothole filled side road. But that is also a possibility.
I'd describe it as approaching the corner. I'm not sure they've turned anything yet. If they play well these last 2 games anywhere near what they just did against Rutgers then I'll say they've turned a corner. But one good game doesn't really constitute it for me. Remember for all the yards and 1st downs we had they still only scored 22 pts.... I know our bar isn't very high and all but I try to keep things in perspective.
