@ILL & @MSU - Which is a more realistic W?

1977Hawkeye

1977Hawkeye

Well-Known Member
I don't know how realistic it is that we win either of these on the road, but which of these two games do you guys think we have a better shot at winning?

Myself, I think I will go with the Illinois game. Couple reasons:

1) Illinois seems to be scuffling a bit right now, and MSU playing better as of late
2) I don't think MSU will forget the beat down we handed them a few weeks ago, and will probably be focused for the rematch

Thoughts?
 


These next 3 games are going to be extremely tough.

MSU or Illinois- Both brutal. Not sure I see realistic chances in either. Reason- Illinois just got hammered by OSU and now our licking there chops for Iowa's visit. MSU- They can't wait for Iowa to visit.

I will go with Purdue just because it's at Carver. I don't see us winning on the road.
 
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I think they are both about a 15-20% chance for us to win. Hard as heck to win on the Big 10 on the road and these 2 teams are fighting to get in the tourney. If Illinois doesnt go 10-12 from downtown in the 1st half of our game at Carver with them it might be a different game.

Now there is no question on which game I would rather win, as a fan. There is not another win that is more satisfying for me in basketball than beating Illinois, especially at their place.
 


Section136 said:
I think they are both about a 15-20% chance for us to win. Hard as heck to win on the Big 10 on the road and these 2 teams are fighting to get in the tourney. If Illinois doesnt go 10-12 from downtown in the 1st half of our game at Carver with them it might be a different game.

Now there is no question on which game I would rather win, as a fan. There is not another win that is more satisfying for me in basketball than beating Illinois, especially at their place.
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Agreed - I had forgotten about the element that ILL is also on the bubble and would see this game as a must-win. But sometimes teams melt down in that scenario.. Hopefully that is the case here.

I too would love a win in Champaign.. I only remember maybe 2 or 3 wins in that building in my entire lifetime. I hate Andy Kaufman... Punking those guys at their place and playing spoiler for their NCAA hopes would be sweet.

Would be nice to end the East Lansing curse as well.

But yeah, I don't think we win either one of them. Purdue at home is probably our best chance at a W before the BTT, but that one will be difficult as well.
 
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1977Hawkeye said:
Agreed - I had forgotten about the element that ILL is also on the bubble and would see this game as a must-win. But sometimes teams melt down in that scenario.. Hopefully that is the case here.

I too would love a win in Champaign.. I only remember maybe 2 or 3 wins in that building in my entire lifetime. Punking those guys at their place and playing spoiler for their NCAA hopes would be sweet.

Would be nice to end the East Lansing curse as well.

But yeah, I don't think we win either one of them. Purdue at home is probably our best chance at a W before the BTT, but that one will be difficult as well.
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I actually think Purdue may be the toughest game of all three. Who do we have to stop Etwaun Moore?

On a different topic- How good would Purdue be with Hummel? I think they would be a heavy favorite to reach the Final 4 and may be the favorite to win the whole thing.
 




^^^^ I bet you are fun to be around :) Every single comment out of your mouth is negative.
 
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Iowafarmgirl said:
How can you pick which is more realistic when neither is realistic.
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My odds at winning the Florida Lottery is about 1:23,000,000
My odds at winning Powerball is about 1:193,000,000

Neither is realistic, but my odds at winning the Florida Lotto are slightly better.

I'd say our odds at winning at either Illinois or MSU are poor, but both are greater than zero percent. That's why you play the games.
 


1977Hawkeye said:
I don't know how realistic it is that we win either of these on the road, but which of these two games do you guys think we have a better shot at winning?

Myself, I think I will go with the Illinois game. Couple reasons:

1) Illinois seems to be scuffling a bit right now, and MSU playing better as of late
2) I don't think MSU will forget the beat down we handed them a few weeks ago, and will probably be focused for the rematch

Thoughts?
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I would say MSU. Illinois has a lot of lenght with Tisdale, Cole, Davis, Leonard, and Richmond. Iowa tends to struggle against long athletic teams see Minnesota for an example.

I think MSU is the best chance at wining.

But you never know! some hot three point shooting and having the right guys in foul trouble on the opposing team opens up a chance for anything.
 


Not a terribly optimistic response here, but I think we get blown out in both games. MSU owes us for smacking them around here and IL has too many athletes. We won't get much, if any, production down low (maybe a chance to get Basabe going against MSU) and our perimter game is non existent. Mounting losses in close games, tired legs and two teams that can't lose another game if they want to make the tourney are all factors not in our favor.

Unless we have 3 guys with career nights, I don't think we can win either game.
 




hawkIhoops said:
Not a terribly optimistic response here, but I think we get blown out in both games. MSU owes us for smacking them around here and IL has too many athletes. We won't get much, if any, production down low (maybe a chance to get Basabe going against MSU) and our perimter game is non existent. Mounting losses in close games, tired legs and two teams that can't lose another game if they want to make the tourney are all factors not in our favor.

Unless we have 3 guys with career nights, I don't think we can win either game.
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This is where I'm at. Plus, we won't get one call in either gymnasium.
 


SteveGarvey said:
Illinois=5% chance of winning
MSU=2%

And that might be stretching it
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This.

The Illini are 4-8 in their last 12 and are in some disarray right now.
Weber benched starters McCamey and Richardson last nite,and it did not work.
The illini were 8 of 9 from the arc in the first half and were still down by 15 at halftime.
MSU is playing better the last week or so,and Lucas is 100% back..so forget winning in EL.
Maybe,if the Hawks could hang around at Illinois,into the second half,the combustible mix that is the illini team might feel pressure and start to unravel...pretty please!!
 


A quick check of the archives on Hawkeyesports ...

Since the 03-04 season, Iowa has NEVER beaten Illannoy or MSU on their home court. They managed only 1 win against either of them away from Carver -- MSU, during the 2005 B10 tourney (71-69).

Based on historical scores, the average at Champaign is a 9-point loss (71.2 - 62.5) and the average at the Breslin is an 18-point loss (75.5 - 57.5). This tends to say that beating Illannoy in Champaign is the least unrealistic.

Based on total wins against either, home and away, Iowa is 2-11 against Illannoy (the last win coming in 2007) but is 4-10 against MSU (the last win being this year). This tends to say that beating MSU at the Breslin is the least unrealistic.

Hawks are not going to win either game. Maybe the question should be, in which game will Iowa lose by less than 10? That is about the only scenario where "realistic" can be discussed with a straight face.:(
 




STILLBUSTER said:
Since the 03-04 season, Iowa has NEVER beaten Illannoy or MSU on their home court. They managed only 1 win against either of them away from Carver -- MSU, during the 2005 B10 tourney (71-69).(
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Pretty sure we beat MSU in the BTT the following year as well ('06). That was the year we beat OSU in the title game.

I'd have to look it up and see when was the last time we even beat Illinois ANYWHERE. Been a while.
 


ILL

Remember Tom Izzo said that the game against Iowa was the worst game he had ever been a part since he has been @ MSU. Tom will make sure to remind the player's before the game.
 






1977Hawkeye said:
Pretty sure we beat MSU in the BTT the following year as well ('06). That was the year we beat OSU in the title game.

I'd have to look it up and see when was the last time we even beat Illinois ANYWHERE. Been a while.
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That is right. We beat Minny, MSU and Ohio State that year in the Big Ten tourney. The MSU game was a slugfest I remember. That was such a fun year and a fun team to watch.
 


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