If you put the best coach at Iowa

[NCHawker]

If you could put the very best football coach at Iowa (Saban, Pete Carol, Les Miles, Chip Kelly, Urban Meyer) do you think the W/L would swing up and down as they have for the past 30+ years. Or do you think that Iowa would strike a level of consistency and never fall below it? Statiticians - what would be the change in volitility, expressed as standard deviation?

Are ups and downs inevitable at Iowa?

The median and avg is about 7 wins over the last 3 decades.

 

[hwks1]

There is no reason for ups downs.. if you can consistently recruit. A winning coach with a winning program would be able to sustain success. Most believe that KF squandered his success

 

[thejumper5]

I think that a school that lacks a significant natural recruiting advantage--geography is the big one, but lax academics (TO's Nebraska) or big donors (Oregon's Phil Knight) are other good examples--will inevitably have ups and downs. Even with a great recruiter, Iowa would have the ups and downs, but maybe the ups would be a little more up and the downs would be a little less down.

 

[imported_ankle23]

There is no reason for ups downs.. if you can consistently recruit. A winning coach with a winning program would be able to sustain success. Most believe that KF squandered his success

iowa's best coach ever, arguably, quit being head coach because recruiting to iowa was too hard. that being Evy.

but i'm sure tavern hok fan knows better.

 

[okeefe4prez]

There is no reason for ups downs.. if you can consistently recruit. A winning coach with a winning program would be able to sustain success. Most believe that KF squandered his success

KF squandered nothing. The dude rolled significant momentum out of the 2002-2004 run and got a magnificent class on paper in 2005. We had some hits and many misses in that class. Momentum continued in 2006 with a few more studs. And we had the great 2009 season to show for it. But Iowa just isn't going to hit year in and year out no matter who the coach is. There is way too much competition and way too little talent in the Midwest. Wisconsin had their little run (which was extended by Russell Wilson's transfer and OSU's ineligibility) but equilibrium is slowly being restored in the B1G as OSU stabilizes with Urban and Michigan comes back to life under Hoke. The window's closed, boys, and no matter who the coach of Iowa is, the old guard is back and we're screwed. Remember the last Rose Bowl because it's fixin' to be a long time before we go back no matter who the coach is.

We've got to adjust to that reality, but even in that reality, we shouldn't get pantsed by MAC teams, Indiana, ISU and Northwestern.

 

[imported_ankle23]

If you could put the very best football coach at Iowa (Saban, Pete Carol, Les Miles, Chip Kelly, Urban Meyer) do you think the W/L would swing up and down as they have for the past 30+ years. Or do you think that Iowa would strike a level of consistency and never fall below it? Statiticians - what would be the change in volitility, expressed as standard deviation?

Are ups and downs inevitable at Iowa?

People are comparing Ferentz to Fry, and stating that Ferentz is letting down the foundation that Fry built. These same folks must not realize or remember the swings that came even with Fry. And Fry's swings never got has high as did Ferentz'.

The median and avg is about 7 wins over the last 3 decades.

 

[ThunderHawk]

iowa's best coach ever, arguably, quit being head coach because recruiting to iowa was too hard. that being Evy.

but i'm sure tavern hok fan knows better.

True Fan(tm): content with demoralizing mediocrity; calls out other fans for expecting better.

What a winner

 

[spliff45]

FWIW Saban's record at MSU was not spectacular.

1995: 6-5-1
1996: 6-6
1997: 7-5
1998: 6-6
1999: 9-2

Who knows what kind of success he could had if he would've been there longer. Still, I don't think it's asking too much to expect 8 or more wins a season with the occasional run at a B1G title for Iowa

 

[HawkeyeMcNutt]

a key point would have to be when the coach is hired. If you take Saban after this year and bring him here, with that track record, I think you're looking at 11-1, 12-0 regular season ceilings and 7-5 floors

 

[STILLBUSTER]

iowa's best coach ever, arguably, quit being head coach because recruiting to iowa was too hard. that being Evy.

but i'm sure tavern hok fan knows better.

Recruiting, the puppetry (speaking, fundraising, glad-handing and shmoozing) and the politics (the constant undercurrent of a conflict with his AD) distracted Evy from doing what he loved - coaching his players.

So, while the toll of recruiting was a factor (name a coach - ever - for which it was not), it was NOT because it was too hard to recruit to Iowa.

Evy didn't roll that way -- ya know, all the excuses and apologies as to why little ol' Iowa should know it's place of mediocrity and it's fans should simply accept avoidable losses to inferior competition as "part of football" that the Pollys keep tossing out. Evy cared about 2 things, no matter what it took -- WIN and have fun! All the rules, regulations and politics imposed simply got in the way of these 2 objectives.

Purely speculating here, but I envision Evy as a "Clint Eastwood" type -- a man of few words but devoted action to a cause without excuse or apology. I'd quess he would be embarrassed at the inexplicable, inexcusable losses that have become an annual expectation due to situational gaffes, strategical blunders, mis-managed personnel relative to scheme, blown leads and the inherent dogma of playing not to lose rather than playing to win. I'd also guess he would berate any fan base that would continue to accept it.

Nice try, though.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/19890723/SPORTS11/50626010/Forest-Evashevski-University-Iowa-1989

Iowa's Forest Evashevski, a shatterer of cherished - 09.23.57 - SI Vault

 

[hawkfarmer]

If you brought them in right now, yes because the name could recruit, but if they came in from Maine the same as KF I think that it is a lot harder to say the records would definitely be better.

 

[snarf34]

I think those guys themselves could bring in recruits just by past performances. Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, etc, big time recruits know them by name and know what they have done. That alone would bring in a few more 4-5* recruits. All they have to do is show them championship rings and those coaches will bring in the best coordinators.

 

[doclee]

KF squandered nothing. The dude rolled significant momentum out of the 2002-2004 run and got a magnificent class on paper in 2005. We had some hits and many misses in that class. Momentum continued in 2006 with a few more studs. And we had the great 2009 season to show for it. But Iowa just isn't going to hit year in and year out no matter who the coach is. There is way too much competition and way too little talent in the Midwest. Wisconsin had their little run (which was extended by Russell Wilson's transfer and OSU's ineligibility) but equilibrium is slowly being restored in the B1G as OSU stabilizes with Urban and Michigan comes back to life under Hoke. The window's closed, boys, and no matter who the coach of Iowa is, the old guard is back and we're screwed. Remember the last Rose Bowl because it's fixin' to be a long time before we go back no matter who the coach is.

We've got to adjust to that reality, but even in that reality, we shouldn't get pantsed by MAC teams, Indiana, ISU and Northwestern.

Excellent post! Thank you. I would add three comments: (1) losses to teams from MAC level by BT or other major conf. teams will continue, or even increase, because the talent level in this country has expanded exponentially, making the talent level in MAC teams higher than ever (2) I don't think we are totally screwed by the re-emergence of Mich and OSU. Other teams, like Iowa, have jumped up on occasion and upended the big dogs...others have been NW, WI, MSU, ILL. I have always enjoyed those years (3) I think Iowa coaches got really scared when we had some highly rated recruits come in and behave like thugs, or abandon the program, or just plain not pan out. I think they renewed their efforts as a developmental program after that experience.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

At the risk of opening up the "you can't compare the 80's to today's game" can of worms, Hayden Fry was winning 8-9+ games per year almost every year in the 1980's, and that was with some years being 11 game seasons. He got us to bowl games almost every year, where you actually had to be a GOOD team to do so, not just simply reach 6 wins and a .500 record. Iowa has had some pretty good success. Ferentz had a great run from 2002-04, but couldn't really sustain it.

Notice I didn't say that I necessarily expect 10-11+ wins every single year, even with a Saban or Urban Meyer type of coach.. I don't know what Iowa's absolute upper limit is, but with the best coach money could buy, I see no reason why Iowa couldn't at least win 8-9 games practically every year, with double digit win seasons sprinkled in here and there. 8-4 or 9-3 seasons shouldn't be considered some type of miracle IMO.

I think this is all moot point, though. Iowa doesn't seem to ever offer a big contract to a proven coach.. It's always the up & comers from the MAC or whatever conference. Or the cheaper hire, if you will. Regardless of our athletic departments budget being something like Top 15 nationally.

 

[NCHawker]

At the risk of opening up the "you can't compare the 80's to today's game" can of worms, Hayden Fry was winning 8-9+ games per year almost every year in the 1980's, and that was with some years being 11 game seasons. He got us to bowl games almost every year, where you actually had to be a GOOD team to do so, not just simply reach 6 wins and a .500 record. Iowa has had some pretty good success. Ferentz had a great run from 2002-04, but couldn't really sustain it.

Notice I didn't say that I necessarily expect 10-11+ wins every single year, even with a Saban or Urban Meyer type of coach.. I don't know what Iowa's absolute upper limit is, but with the best coach money could buy, I see no reason why Iowa couldn't at least win 8-9 games practically every year, with double digit win seasons sprinkled in here and there. 8-4 or 9-3 seasons shouldn't be considered some type of miracle IMO.

I think this is all moot point, though. Iowa doesn't seem to ever offer a big contract to a proven coach.. It's always the up & comers from the MAC or whatever conference. Or the cheaper hire, if you will. Regardless of our athletic departments budget being something like Top 15 nationally.

I see ups and downs. But the 7 year run from 81-87 created the mindset of the modern hawkeye fan.

 

[chicagoherky]

KF squandered nothing. The dude rolled significant momentum out of the 2002-2004 run and got a magnificent class on paper in 2005. We had some hits and many misses in that class. Momentum continued in 2006 with a few more studs. And we had the great 2009 season to show for it.

This seems about right, I think this is actually part of where Kirk got into problems. His bread and butter was taking guys and coaching them up to be productive 4th or 5th year seniors. I believe there is something different about the guys that sign up for that than the guys who come in with a bunch of expectations about being stars and early playing time. When Iowa has had success it has been with a bunch of lunch bucket types. I wonder if Iowa recruiting is more about a mentality than stars.

 

[chicagoherky]

I see ups and downs. But the 7 year run from 81-87 created the mindset of the modern hawkeye fan.

Hayden seems to have had a slightly more consistent run once he got the program going, but then it fell off and we wasn't able to get the consistency back. That might be a good question across coaches look at
((average wins)/(standard deviation of wins))*squareroot(number of seasons)

in other words a t-statistic

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Hayden seems to have had a slightly more consistent run once he got the program going, but then it fell off and we wasn't able to get the consistency back. That might be a good question across coaches look at
((average wins)/(standard deviation of wins))*squareroot(number of seasons)

in other words a t-statistic

In the 90's, and I'd have to go back and check the timing of all this, I think is also when a lot of Fry's top assistants left or had already moved on to other jobs. Snyder, Alvarez, Stoops, etc. There was a pretty big drop off from 92-94 or so, with a good bounce back 95-97, before Hayden's eventually health forced him into retirement. IMO, it just goes to show the importance of good assistants, though.

As for the mentality of the modern Hawkeye fan, well, we've seen what Iowa Football can do with a good coach. And I am referring to both Fry and Ferentz. I see nothing wrong with thinking Iowa should be able to get back to the level where it has been at times historically. I just will never be happy or satisfied with 6-6 or 7-5 records (not as our ceiling anyway, but only as rebuilding years), no matter what my expectations for this program really ought to be.

 

[chicagoherky]

This seems about right, I think this is actually part of where Kirk got into problems. His bread and butter was taking guys and coaching them up to be productive 4th or 5th year seniors. I believe there is something different about the guys that sign up for that than the guys who come in with a bunch of expectations about being stars and early playing time. When Iowa has had success it has been with a bunch of lunch bucket types. I wonder if Iowa recruiting is more about a mentality than stars.

I should also have added that I think the massive attrition was much bigger problem because of the mentality that this is a player development program, how do you develop players that keep leaving the program?

 

[NCHawker]

My pain threshold is less than 8 wins before bowl.