I wouldn't make bowl travel plans just yet

okeefe4prez

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
I know a lot of you are probably looking forward to some exotic trip to Dallas to watch the First Responder Bowl, but hang on before you buy tickets. We are going to get boat raced by PSU. There is a good chance this team lays down once that happens. I know we talk about the ISU game as their Super Bowl, but there are 5 teams in our division that are going to give us their Super Bowl performance (I won't even go into Wisconsin because that is a guaranteed L).

Purdue and Northwestern look like hot garbage in many respects, but their coaches have absolutely owned Ferentz and Co. Good chance we drop both of those in games that make you want to avert your eyes.

Minnesota is gonna hit us hard. They scored a ton against us last year and I ain't sure we're gonna be able to stop them. Fleck will smell blood in the water and view this game as pivotal if they want to be in the upper tier in the division. Super Bowl for them.

Illinois will throw everything they have at us but come up short.

'Braska wants this one bad. So bad. In Lincoln. Senior Day. Will see this as a pivotal game to determine whether they get a respectable bowl or the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit. Keeping Iowa at 5 wins and out of a bowl will give them extra incentive.

I think we have about a 33% shot at 7 wins, 33% shot at 6 wins and 33% at 5 wins. 1% chance we surprise to the upside.

Ultimately, what I've seen out of this run game does not bode well for the bad weather games. The WRs are decent, but they ain't gonna win us games once it gets cold and windy. I still think there is 2/3 chance we make a bowl, but my optimism is not high. This team has the same limitations on offense every BF team has had and any team with P5 caliber athletes who loads the box and pressures Stanley in passing situations will absolutely shut this offense down.
 
Oh, come on, they are not that bad. ;) Though, I sure as heck hope you are wrong. If not, things will get real ugly again.
 
I think offensively there are many better coaching staffs that the hawks face than our own. Unless Iowa's offense gets better, more creative, more push, better pass protection, gets their receivers open more often then it could be a long season. Defense should be there. Does Purdue get two main offensive players back from injury? Is minny for real?

What happened to Martinez yesterday injury wise?
 
NikeHawk21 said:
This will be a nice post to save for the archives
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I hope it is proven wrong in a major way, but this team has the tell tale signs of Kirk's teams that wind up with a major letdown. Senior QB. Dogshit o-line. Marginal running attack. Marginal TE usage in the passing game.

Senior Drew Tate: 6-7
Senior Rick Stanzi: 8-5
Senior JVB: 4-8
Senior Beathard: 8-5 (lost to North Dakota State)

The PSU game will be the inflection point. If the defense keeps it close and we get another gag job out of the offense, I think the wheels come off the bus. And it will be just like 2010 where you can see the specific moment it happens. It will be a reasonably close game and the offense will have 3 or 4 straight three and outs and the defense will finally collapse and the team will just shit the bed for the rest of the year.
 
uihawk82 said:
I think offensively there are many better coaching staffs that the hawks face than our own. Unless Iowa's offense gets better, more creative, more push, better pass protection, gets their receivers open more often then it could be a long season. Defense should be there. Does Purdue get two main offensive players back from injury? Is minny for real?

What happened to Martinez yesterday injury wise?
Click to expand...

Ferentz has brought the offense into the modern era at least. It's just that we aren't very good. If the line sucks, the offense will suck. It's really that simple.
 
HawksMN said:
OP is full of poop. We'll get Minny and Purdue at home. Neither of those teams are very good.
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You see those games the last two years against Purdue? 'Member that time Minnesota was far and away the worst team in the conference and they beat the piss out of us? There's one guaranteed win left. Illinois.
 
okeefe4prez said:
Ferentz has brought the offense into the modern era at least. It's just that we aren't very good. If the line sucks, the offense will suck. It's really that simple.
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I did not see any receivers , fast receivers for Iowa, running fly routes to occupy safeties against Mich, nor trying to outflank their blitz with quick throws to goodson or other running backs, nor much difference in run blocking style.

Hey I like Kirk but just not a dynamic offensive mind.
 
okeefe4prez said:
I hope it is proven wrong in a major way, but this team has the tell tale signs of Kirk's teams that wind up with a major letdown. Senior QB. Dogshit o-line. Marginal running attack. Marginal TE usage in the passing game.

Senior Drew Tate: 6-7
Senior Rick Stanzi: 8-5
Senior JVB: 4-8
Senior Beathard: 8-5 (lost to North Dakota State)

The PSU game will be the inflection point. If the defense keeps it close and we get another gag job out of the offense, I think the wheels come off the bus. And it will be just like 2010 where you can see the specific moment it happens. It will be a reasonably close game and the offense will have 3 or 4 straight three and outs and the defense will finally collapse and the team will just shit the bed for the rest of the year.
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I’m not convinced the Oline is that bad. Rough day yesterday but I blame the play calling the most. They abandoned the run and Michigan pass rush was smelling blood in the water. That’s on BF putting them in a terrible spot but that can be corrected.

Goodson is emerging at the RB position and the other guys are decent.

If we lose to Penn State, who is a borderline top 10 team, next week it’s not the end of the world. We have too many veterans to mail it in.
 
okeefe4prez said:
I know a lot of you are probably looking forward to some exotic trip to Dallas to watch the First Responder Bowl, but hang on before you buy tickets. We are going to get boat raced by PSU. There is a good chance this team lays down once that happens. I know we talk about the ISU game as their Super Bowl, but there are 5 teams in our division that are going to give us their Super Bowl performance (I won't even go into Wisconsin because that is a guaranteed L).

Purdue and Northwestern look like hot garbage in many respects, but their coaches have absolutely owned Ferentz and Co. Good chance we drop both of those in games that make you want to avert your eyes.

Minnesota is gonna hit us hard. They scored a ton against us last year and I ain't sure we're gonna be able to stop them. Fleck will smell blood in the water and view this game as pivotal if they want to be in the upper tier in the division. Super Bowl for them.

Illinois will throw everything they have at us but come up short.

'Braska wants this one bad. So bad. In Lincoln. Senior Day. Will see this as a pivotal game to determine whether they get a respectable bowl or the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit. Keeping Iowa at 5 wins and out of a bowl will give them extra incentive.

I think we have about a 33% shot at 7 wins, 33% shot at 6 wins and 33% at 5 wins. 1% chance we surprise to the upside.

Ultimately, what I've seen out of this run game does not bode well for the bad weather games. The WRs are decent, but they ain't gonna win us games once it gets cold and windy. I still think there is 2/3 chance we make a bowl, but my optimism is not high. This team has the same limitations on offense every BF team has had and any team with P5 caliber athletes who loads the box and pressures Stanley in passing situations will absolutely shut this offense down.
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NOT
 
NikeHawk21 said:
I’m not convinced the Oline is that bad. Rough day yesterday but I blame the play calling the most. They abandoned the run and Michigan pass rush was smelling blood in the water. That’s on BF putting them in a terrible spot but that can be corrected.

Goodson is emerging at the RB position and the other guys are decent.

If we lose to Penn State, who is a borderline top 10 team, next week it’s not the end of the world. We have too many veterans to mail it in.
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Loss to them isn't the end of the world, but if the offense pisses down its leg again, Kirk will lose the team. Guys with NFL aspirations will go into protect mode. If we lose like 24-23 or something, we will be fine and probably still eek out 8.
 
okeefe4prez said:
You see those games the last two years against Purdue? 'Member that time Minnesota was far and away the worst team in the conference and they beat the piss out of us? There's one guaranteed win left. Illinois.
Click to expand...

We beat Minny 4 straight years man. Not worried. Since when did a piss poor Minny team beat the hell out of us? The only time in the last decade and a half they did that was 2014....and they were decent that yr.
 
After Saturday and watching a defensive game plan that absolutely owned us and a game plan that any team can replicate, I dont feel there is a for sure win left outside of Illinois.

The good news is our defense is dominant again. But they absolutely have to score. We wont get any points from our PR team, maybe our KR return team has a TD in them.

This season rests wholly on how many points the defense scores.
 
Motigerhawk said:
After Saturday and watching a defensive game plan that absolutely owned us and a game plan that any team can replicate, I dont feel there is a for sure win left outside of Illinois.

The good news is our defense is dominant again. But they absolutely have to score. We wont get any points from our PR team, maybe our KR return team has a TD in them.

This season rests wholly on how many points the defense scores.
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Our D looked good, but Michigan's QB sucks, their RB is mediocre and Harbaugh seemed content to out-Ferentz Ferentz and just play field position once he saw how inept our offense was. I'm not convinced that we necessarily took Michigan's best shot on offense.
 
Is there a miracle cure for Iowa's anemic offense? Brian isn't an Alchemist, he is an inexperienced OC, who doesn't seem to have much to offer vs equal or better coaching staffs.

I say, come out vs PSU with the triple option...Tyler Goodson taking the snaps. Let talent drive the game, not overthinking.
 
What do....

Minnesota*
Mississippi State*
Nebraska*
North Texas
San Jose State*

...have in common?

These teams have all played in a post-season NCAA sanctioned bowl after going 5-7.
The * teams actually won.

How are 5-7 teams chosen for the 'privilege' of being selected? Well, it's the Academic Progress Rate (APR) of course. The APR ranks teams on the basis of a convoluted academic scoring system. The higher you're ranked, you go to the top of the list, allowing for early anointing. It's STUDENT-athlete after-all!

So, OP, relax. Iowa will be going to a bowl game at 5-7. Iowa's Student-Athlete-driven Recreational Studies, American Studies, Drama, Dance, History and Interdepartmental Studies all ranked high I'm sure on the APR. (The Iowa turnstile history doesn't hurt either)
 
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