STILLBUSTER
Well-Known Member
During the bye week there was thread going about how Iowa would finish the last 7 games. I posted I was still hopeful of 11-1 but was starting to put more probability in 8-4 or 9-3. (I'd link it but I haven't learned how to do that since going to the new site.)
Where I went wrong was in my concern over the offense not being quite good enough to pull it off, specifically, the inconsistencies in the OL and RB. Never once crossed my mind that it would be the defense, specifically the LB's and CB's, that were the real concerns.
There has been some general talk lately about teams providing "blueprints" on how to beat other teams. Over the last 2 weeks, Michigan and Wisconsin have provided that blueprint against Iowa -- attack the LB's with the underneath crossing routes and the CB's with the swing passes / square routes in the flats. (Wisconsin's leading receiver is their #3 tailback? C'mon!)
Unfortunately, this plays right into the hands of an MSU and NW.
MSU has just as much power as Wisky in the running game to set up the Iowa D. They also have a talented, experienced QB in Cousins who is competent enough to exploit this. (On a side note, Tolzein is far better than I thought. One play, he intentionally stared down a receiver who had sat down on an 8-10 yard hook, froze the LB, dropped it to the RB in the flat for an even bigger gain. The guy is sharp in his execution, methodical and deadly accurate -- very similar to Cousins.)
NW has no running game but will accomplish the same results because of their controlled chaos of an offense with so many moving parts. Persa will dink and dunk NW right down the field and then score with his feet.
I see the last 5 games going:
MSU = L. (20 - 14)
(Not only due to the above but there are too many "karma forces" coming into play. They have a chance to go to 9-0 for (I think) the first time in school history. It was the exactly the same for Iowa, last year. It will be payback. MSU will kick Iowa while their down with a physical beating, making it a low scoring slugfest.)
Indiana = W (38 - 27)
(Indy has the offensive ability to exploit Iowa in much the same way as NW will. They just don't have enough of the schematic flair and Chappel is not mobile, like Persa. They also won't be able to stop Iowa's offense.)
NW = L (35 - 31)
(Again, the reasons above. Also, for whatever reason, NW is Iowa's nemesis. It will be crappy weather and Iowa's special teams will give up some fluke play -- 2005 all over again.)
OSU = W (27 - 23)
(Iowa finally gets a signature win on the season.)
Minny = W (33 - 17)
Final record: 8-4 / 5-3. Alamo or Outback bowl.
Where I went wrong was in my concern over the offense not being quite good enough to pull it off, specifically, the inconsistencies in the OL and RB. Never once crossed my mind that it would be the defense, specifically the LB's and CB's, that were the real concerns.
There has been some general talk lately about teams providing "blueprints" on how to beat other teams. Over the last 2 weeks, Michigan and Wisconsin have provided that blueprint against Iowa -- attack the LB's with the underneath crossing routes and the CB's with the swing passes / square routes in the flats. (Wisconsin's leading receiver is their #3 tailback? C'mon!)
Unfortunately, this plays right into the hands of an MSU and NW.
MSU has just as much power as Wisky in the running game to set up the Iowa D. They also have a talented, experienced QB in Cousins who is competent enough to exploit this. (On a side note, Tolzein is far better than I thought. One play, he intentionally stared down a receiver who had sat down on an 8-10 yard hook, froze the LB, dropped it to the RB in the flat for an even bigger gain. The guy is sharp in his execution, methodical and deadly accurate -- very similar to Cousins.)
NW has no running game but will accomplish the same results because of their controlled chaos of an offense with so many moving parts. Persa will dink and dunk NW right down the field and then score with his feet.
I see the last 5 games going:
MSU = L. (20 - 14)
(Not only due to the above but there are too many "karma forces" coming into play. They have a chance to go to 9-0 for (I think) the first time in school history. It was the exactly the same for Iowa, last year. It will be payback. MSU will kick Iowa while their down with a physical beating, making it a low scoring slugfest.)
Indiana = W (38 - 27)
(Indy has the offensive ability to exploit Iowa in much the same way as NW will. They just don't have enough of the schematic flair and Chappel is not mobile, like Persa. They also won't be able to stop Iowa's offense.)
NW = L (35 - 31)
(Again, the reasons above. Also, for whatever reason, NW is Iowa's nemesis. It will be crappy weather and Iowa's special teams will give up some fluke play -- 2005 all over again.)
OSU = W (27 - 23)
(Iowa finally gets a signature win on the season.)
Minny = W (33 - 17)
Final record: 8-4 / 5-3. Alamo or Outback bowl.
