How Accurate are These NFL Mock Drafts?
- Thread starter RobHowe
- Start date
The 2 guys from Walter Football were in the top25. I think they are pretty good. I will start following some of these other guys.
BTW - I have seen a couple of mock drafts that have some additional draft picks besides our 4 early entrants. One showed Render in round 3 and another showed Matt Nelson in round 5.
I also saw one, dated a few days ago, where Nate Stanley was taken in the 4th round.
BTW - I have seen a couple of mock drafts that have some additional draft picks besides our 4 early entrants. One showed Render in round 3 and another showed Matt Nelson in round 5.
I also saw one, dated a few days ago, where Nate Stanley was taken in the 4th round.
skinnykilmer17
Well-Known Member
Yeah, but what else is there to talk about football-wise until April?
You should thank me for trying to generate some action on this board.
Killjoy.
RobHowe
Administrator
Yeah, but what else is there to talk about football-wise until April?
You should thank me for trying to generate some action on this board.
Killjoy.
I was waiting for you to respond.
Please read the story linked in the OP.
I wrote up my thoughts and admitted that I follow the mocks as well. This exercise was designed for me to find out the accuracy. I've been curious.
skinnykilmer17
Well-Known Member
I was waiting for you to respond.
Please read the story linked in the OP.
I wrote up my thoughts and admitted that I follow the mocks as well. This exercise was designed for me to find out the accuracy. I've been curious.
Oh, so that what LINK is for?
It IS a good story. Thank you. It would be fun to do a mock. After I am done dealing with all of this snow. I wonder how many of us could beat Hub Arkush? (Second from dead last). lol
RobHowe
Administrator
Oh, so that what LINK is for?
It IS a good story. Thank you. It would be fun to do a mock. After I am done dealing with all of this snow. I wonder how many of us could beat Hub Arkush? (Second from dead last). lol
Thanks for reading.
I used to do a mock around the draft for where the Iowa guys would do. Maybe I'll do that this year and show how inaccurate I can be.
homes
Well-Known Member
Looking forward to your Iowa mock draft. I see Hockenson ending up on the Patriots - they'll need a good run-blocking/sure handed TE in a year. Fant to the Raiders in the first round. Nelson to the Vikings in the 4th round. Hooker to the Ravens in the 4th round.
That took me about 2 minutes.
That took me about 2 minutes.
hawkdrummer1
Well-Known Member
"mock": not authentic or real, but without the intention to deceive.
trj
Well-Known Member
Unfortunately, Hockensen or Fant will likely end up a Bengal. Took me a minute to come up with that gem.
#1DieHardHawk
Well-Known Member
I generally don't pay much attention to mock drafts until after the combine. So much changes.
From what I've seen, the mocks tend to be reasonably close late in the process - not so much predicting which team a player goes to, but more so in establishing their approximate pick "range." That's especially the case for the first 10 picks or so, where the analysts are usually pretty on-target in their opinions of who the top players are. Obviously, the accuracy diminishes as the draft goes along.
From what I've seen, the mocks tend to be reasonably close late in the process - not so much predicting which team a player goes to, but more so in establishing their approximate pick "range." That's especially the case for the first 10 picks or so, where the analysts are usually pretty on-target in their opinions of who the top players are. Obviously, the accuracy diminishes as the draft goes along.
99topdawg
Well-Known Member
I think the problem with mocks is that they project what a team needs and combine it with the best player available, which sounds like a no-brainer on the surface, but teams may have a need at WR, but take a DT, because that particular draft may be weak in DT's and deep at WR and they know they can get a good one later in the draft. As Rob said in his article, they're getting paid to do their job. I know fans of my team are ripping mocks because they have them taking offense in the first round, but desperately need defense. Well, it's a deep defensive draft this year, so what will my team do? Take offense while they can or grab defense because they really need it? Who knows? Mock writers aren't the only ones that don't.
Plus, most mock drafters don’t project any trades, and there are lots of them during the 3 days, which is nearly impossible to predict.
Mostly these guys talk to GM’s and assistants or scouts of a certain team. Sometimes they are deliberately telling these posters bad information to get other teams off the trail of a good player and hope they pump up a player they don’t want, so other teams will take them.
You just never know, but a majority of the time you have about 90 guys that the experts say are good enough to be a 1st round pick. Another 60 are deemed to be good enough to be a second round pick. Now you are up to 150 players and they take up the first 5 rounds of players. When a prospect is said to be a 4th or 5th rounder, you are really looking at an UDFA, most of the time. At least that’s my theory and I am sticking with it.
Mostly these guys talk to GM’s and assistants or scouts of a certain team. Sometimes they are deliberately telling these posters bad information to get other teams off the trail of a good player and hope they pump up a player they don’t want, so other teams will take them.
You just never know, but a majority of the time you have about 90 guys that the experts say are good enough to be a 1st round pick. Another 60 are deemed to be good enough to be a second round pick. Now you are up to 150 players and they take up the first 5 rounds of players. When a prospect is said to be a 4th or 5th rounder, you are really looking at an UDFA, most of the time. At least that’s my theory and I am sticking with it.
There is a website that has a mock draft by a guy named Bonzo the Idiot Monkey that gets about as many picks right as Mel Kiper or the other guy. If I were an internet marketing guy I would probably get something like a squid in an aquarium to pick some mock drafts like that one octapus that makes Wold Cup predictions.
Holy smokes I knew none of those mock draft compilers were any good at it but who knew that being worse at predicting something than the weatherman are at their jobs would be such a highly lucrative career? The amount of hours that both ESPN and NFL Network pour into it not just on TV but radio is unreal.
SteveGarvey1
Well-Known Member
These NFL execs run so much misdirection on who they might be taking so as to not give any intell away to any other teams that it's almost impossible to get even as many half of the first round right.
HawkeyeDenis
Well-Known Member
There's a lot of educated guessing that goes on in football and a lot of it is wrong. Polls. AP, Coaches. etc. Wrong. Mock drafts. Wrong. We love it. And that's why they play the games.
The NFL Draft is a crap shoot at best. Big money being paid to first rounders who bust out of the league in 3 years. Stars coming from the late rounds.
My best guess this year. We don't see a Iowa player drafted before the second round.
The NFL Draft is a crap shoot at best. Big money being paid to first rounders who bust out of the league in 3 years. Stars coming from the late rounds.
My best guess this year. We don't see a Iowa player drafted before the second round.
