JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Iowa basketball media day takes place this aftertoon and Iowa fans are beginning to think about the roundball.
Part of that may have to do with last week's disappointing loss to Penn State, but Fran McCaffery's 2010-2011 season showed promise and had Iowa fans in a basketball mood right when the season ended.
Yes, Iowa went 11-20 last year, the second straight season where the Hawks lost at least 20 games when it had never before experienced such disappointment in the loss column.
However, McCaffery's team played an exciting brand of basketball and lost seven games by two possessions or less. We can see reasons for optimism. Not unbridled optimism, but hopes for a return to relevance for the program.
This year is going to be another brick in the wall of the rebuilding and rebranding of the Iowa basketball program. It's highly unlikely that this team could qualify for the NCAA tournament on a couple of fronts.
The first is that they don't yet have the horses to do it and depth is a concern. The second is that even if this team did manage to win 20 games (which is a longshot) their strength of schedule will likely be so poor that they would not earn an at large bid.
At this point, this is the kind of schedule Iowa needs to play.
NON CONFERENCE: I can see Iowa going 10-3 or 11-2. I have the games at UNI and Iowa State as losses, with the Creighton game in Des Moines being a nail biter. I think Iowa will beat Clemson at home...I think they also pull it out against Creighton so lets go with 11-2. Yes, I am giving Iowa the benefit of the doubt against the other cupcakes on their schedule. This program needs to move past losing to teams like South Dakota State and Long Beach State, as they did last year.
BIG TEN PLAY: The Hawks open league play the way they ended it last year; at home against Purdue. Moore and Johnson are no longer there, but Robbie Hummel is. However, the Hawks can get off to a good start against a beatable Boilermaker team. Iowa then hits the road at Wisconsin and Minnesota, home against a very good Ohio State team, on the road against Michigan State, home against Michigan then at Purdue.
That's a very tough seven game stretch. If Iowa could go 3-4 against that slate, it would be an accomplishment. I am thinking more like 2-5 and even then I would not be too upset.
The last 11 games are more manageable. Two games against Nebraska, Penn State, Indiana and Northwestern await. If they can sweep the Cornhuskers and Nittany Lions, you have a base. Splitting with Indiana and Northwestern is not going out on a limb. If the Hawks can go 6-2 against this slate, they will be on to something for the year. The other three opponents in the back 11 are home against Minnesota and Wisconsin and at Illinois. I think they beat Minnesota at home.
An 8-10 Big Ten record, if the Hawkeyes stay healthy at the point (and in general) doesn't seem to be like a big time stretch. Then again, Iowa has won 4, 4, 5 and 6 games in each of the last four Big Ten seasons. They were 9-7 in Adam Haluska's senior year, the season after Iowa bowed out of the NCAA tournament as a three-seed, a season that is now six years in our rearview mirror.
That's the last time Iowa's basketball program was relevant. Six years. The 21 years prior to Iowa's hiring Steve Alford, the Hawkeyes only missed five NCAA tournaments...they have now missed the last five in a row.
This year is all about getting the program knocking on the door of relevance. I don't think they can do much beyond that this year, but the program has so much positive momentum right now on the recruiting front. If they can finish .500 or better this year, which would mean 16 wins in the regular season, that is progress.
That might allow Iowa to gain entry into one of the lesser post-season tournaments, which is progress.
For now, it's media day. I have never been to one of these things where everyone wasn't real optimistic and I am sure we'll read quotes and stories later today and tomorrow with similar themes.
Zach McCabe moves to a four-role this year, but can play outside as well and is up to 239 pounds. Melsahn Basabe is 234, having shaped his body to better withstand the rigors of the Big Ten. Even Devyn Marble is pushing 200 pounds these days, on the verge of a potential breakout year.
I might buy into it this year...the new practice facility is in use, and assistant coaches are on the record saying the team has hoisted over 40,000 shots collectively in the last few months it has been available.
This is something Iowa's players could not do in previous years due to having to share the court with other teams. That fact is a self inflicted Bob Bowlsby wound that is nearly inexcusable. Now, the Hawkeyes are at least back on even facilities footing with their Big Ten bretheren.
The foundation has literally been laid for this program. Now the Hawks have to keep adding more levels.
Part of that may have to do with last week's disappointing loss to Penn State, but Fran McCaffery's 2010-2011 season showed promise and had Iowa fans in a basketball mood right when the season ended.
Yes, Iowa went 11-20 last year, the second straight season where the Hawks lost at least 20 games when it had never before experienced such disappointment in the loss column.
However, McCaffery's team played an exciting brand of basketball and lost seven games by two possessions or less. We can see reasons for optimism. Not unbridled optimism, but hopes for a return to relevance for the program.
This year is going to be another brick in the wall of the rebuilding and rebranding of the Iowa basketball program. It's highly unlikely that this team could qualify for the NCAA tournament on a couple of fronts.
The first is that they don't yet have the horses to do it and depth is a concern. The second is that even if this team did manage to win 20 games (which is a longshot) their strength of schedule will likely be so poor that they would not earn an at large bid.
At this point, this is the kind of schedule Iowa needs to play.
NON CONFERENCE: I can see Iowa going 10-3 or 11-2. I have the games at UNI and Iowa State as losses, with the Creighton game in Des Moines being a nail biter. I think Iowa will beat Clemson at home...I think they also pull it out against Creighton so lets go with 11-2. Yes, I am giving Iowa the benefit of the doubt against the other cupcakes on their schedule. This program needs to move past losing to teams like South Dakota State and Long Beach State, as they did last year.
BIG TEN PLAY: The Hawks open league play the way they ended it last year; at home against Purdue. Moore and Johnson are no longer there, but Robbie Hummel is. However, the Hawks can get off to a good start against a beatable Boilermaker team. Iowa then hits the road at Wisconsin and Minnesota, home against a very good Ohio State team, on the road against Michigan State, home against Michigan then at Purdue.
That's a very tough seven game stretch. If Iowa could go 3-4 against that slate, it would be an accomplishment. I am thinking more like 2-5 and even then I would not be too upset.
The last 11 games are more manageable. Two games against Nebraska, Penn State, Indiana and Northwestern await. If they can sweep the Cornhuskers and Nittany Lions, you have a base. Splitting with Indiana and Northwestern is not going out on a limb. If the Hawks can go 6-2 against this slate, they will be on to something for the year. The other three opponents in the back 11 are home against Minnesota and Wisconsin and at Illinois. I think they beat Minnesota at home.
An 8-10 Big Ten record, if the Hawkeyes stay healthy at the point (and in general) doesn't seem to be like a big time stretch. Then again, Iowa has won 4, 4, 5 and 6 games in each of the last four Big Ten seasons. They were 9-7 in Adam Haluska's senior year, the season after Iowa bowed out of the NCAA tournament as a three-seed, a season that is now six years in our rearview mirror.
That's the last time Iowa's basketball program was relevant. Six years. The 21 years prior to Iowa's hiring Steve Alford, the Hawkeyes only missed five NCAA tournaments...they have now missed the last five in a row.
This year is all about getting the program knocking on the door of relevance. I don't think they can do much beyond that this year, but the program has so much positive momentum right now on the recruiting front. If they can finish .500 or better this year, which would mean 16 wins in the regular season, that is progress.
That might allow Iowa to gain entry into one of the lesser post-season tournaments, which is progress.
For now, it's media day. I have never been to one of these things where everyone wasn't real optimistic and I am sure we'll read quotes and stories later today and tomorrow with similar themes.
Zach McCabe moves to a four-role this year, but can play outside as well and is up to 239 pounds. Melsahn Basabe is 234, having shaped his body to better withstand the rigors of the Big Ten. Even Devyn Marble is pushing 200 pounds these days, on the verge of a potential breakout year.
I might buy into it this year...the new practice facility is in use, and assistant coaches are on the record saying the team has hoisted over 40,000 shots collectively in the last few months it has been available.
This is something Iowa's players could not do in previous years due to having to share the court with other teams. That fact is a self inflicted Bob Bowlsby wound that is nearly inexcusable. Now, the Hawkeyes are at least back on even facilities footing with their Big Ten bretheren.
The foundation has literally been laid for this program. Now the Hawks have to keep adding more levels.
