JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
9th NORTHWESTERN 2-6 in Big Ten play, 5-7 overall: The Cats return 14 starters from an eight-win team that could have been a ten win team fairly easily.
However, they suffer a huge loss in quarterback Mike Kafka to graduation. He was my 1st team All Big Ten quarterback from last year, not that my vote counts but I watch every Big Ten team play at least half of their games. Iowa fans got to see Dan Persa in action, and he will be the likely replacement for Kafka and his 3,430 yards passing and 16 touchdown passes, and 299 yards rushing. Persa is no where near the thrower Kafka built himself in to, or wasn’t when we saw him last fall in Kinnick.
However, he will have all five offensive linemen back this year, a huge boost. He’ll lose the Cats two top receiving targets who each had over 855 yards with Andrew Brewer having nine touchdown receptions.
It’s a different story on defense, the unsung hero for the Cats the last two years. Corey Wootton is gone, and though he wasn’t fully healed during last season after his Alamo bowl ACL injury, he was still someone you had to keep an eye on (see sack of Rick Stanzi that busted him up, even if it was a facemask). Four of Northwestern’s top five tacklers are gone and Wootton wasn’t among those four. Three of their four starting members of the secondary are gone, too.
Predicted Losses: @ Vanderbilt, @Minnesota, Michigan State, @Penn State, Iowa, Illinois @Wisconsin
Predicted Wins: Illinois State, @Rice, C. Michigan, Purdue & @Indiana
I could see this being a shaky pick as well…there are really just two bad teams in the league this year; Indiana and Minnesota, so teams five through nine are hard to pin down. A team with an inexperienced quarterback and a suspect defense don’t fare well on the road.
8th PURDUE 3-5 in Big Ten play, 6-6 overall: The Boilermakers got a boost a few weeks back when coach Danny Hope announced that quarterback Justin Siller would be reinstated after having gotten the boot last year due to some academic improprieties. He’ll be the odds on favorite to replace the departed Joey Elliott who threw for over 3,000 yards last year and 22 touchdown passes. Four of Purdue’s top five receiving targets return along with three of five starting linemen, but leading rusher Ralph Bolden, who gained nearly 1,000 yards last year, suffered and ACL injury this spring and will not likely be ready for the 2010 season.
That’s a big blow and can be the difference between six to eight wins, in my opinion. Then again, maybe not; look at Iowa from 2009. However, the Hawkeye defense was best in the nation status, where Purdue’s defense will not be that good this year, although they do return three of four on the line and two of three linebackers. Maybe I am selling Purdue a bit short here, and of all of my predictions, this one might be the biggest miss I have on the board…this one, or Michigan, which you will see later this week.
Predicted Losses: @Notre Dame, @Northwestern, @Ohio State, @Illinois, Wisconsin & @ Michigan State
Predicted Wins: Western Illinois, Ball State, Toledo, Minnesota, Michigan and Indiana
Bowl Prediction: Dallas Bowl
As you can see with my projected losses, there is room for debate. I could see them beating Northwestern, Illinois and Michigan State. However, all three of those games are on the road, and I am not sold on Siller’s maturity. If it's not Siller, then it will be another player with little to no experience, transfer Robert Marve. As was the case with Northwestern, you have to pack a defense to win on the road, and you need consistent play and leadership from your quarterback; I think Purdue is lacking in both these areas until I see differently.
T-6th Michigan State 4-4 in Big Ten play, 8-4overall: The Spartans return 13 starters; seven on offense and six on defense including several of their top playmakers. Last year, Sparty was tabbed as the #3 team in the league by the conference’s media in Chicago, but they fell short of that perch, finishing 4-4 in league play and 6-7 overall, losing to Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl.
They return two quarterbacks that saw time last year; Kirk Cousins (2,680 passing yards, 19 touchdowns to 9 INT’s) and Keith Nichol. They return a pair of young running backs in Larry Caper and Edwin Baker that showed promise last year. However, they lose three of their five starting offensive linemen and leading reciever Blair White and his 70 receptions for 990 yards. He became an Eric Decker-like presence for Michigan State last year, so his loss will be significant.
Last year’s Big Ten Defensive MVP Greg Jones returns at linebacker, one of the best tacklers in the nation (154 in 2010, to go along with nine sacks). Sparty loses their nose tackle and a starting defensive end, in addition to the loss of a starting linebacker, corner and safety.
This continues to be a program that recruits well enough to perform better on the field than they do, if that makes sense. This has been a program that has underachieved for the better part of the last two decades. Mark Dantonio enters his fourth year in East Lansing with a record of 22-17, which is respectable, but their fans feel a bit let down by the 2009 performance.
Then again, some might argue that Sparty’s job is to just get the fans to mid October and the start of basketball season; anything else is a bonus. I think they’ll get that bonus this year when others don’t expect it.
Predicted Wins: W. Michigan, Fla. Atlantic, Notre Dame, No. Colorado, Illinois, @NW, Minnesota & Purdue
Predicted Losses: Wisconsin, @Michigan, @Iowa & @Penn State
Bowl Projection: I see Sparty going to the Insight, which is the 5th pick in the Big Ten pecking order. However, since I once again see the Big Ten sending two teams to the BCS, this will be the fourth pick from the league, behind the Cap One, Outback and Gator Bowls. This is the slot formerly occupied by the Alamo Bowl, which no longer has an affiliation with the Big Ten.
T-6th Illinois 4-4 in Big Ten play, 6-6 overall: After having made my picks over the weekend and looking at them again this week as I write these capsules, there are some instances where I am second guessing myself. This is one of them…however, I my head hurts too much to go back in and change the math, so we’ll go with this pick for right now and see what develops out of the summer. I typically do this exercise again just before the season starts and after we have had a chance to digest any training camp injuries, so Illinois is a candidate to move south, while Northwestern is a candidate to move north.
But having gone through their schedule, and knowing they do have talent on that roster and the Illini getting to host Indiana, Purdue and Minnesota, there is three wins right there that I can see.
They lose quarterback Juice Williams, but I am not so sure they won’t be able to get as much production out of Nathan Scheelhasse as they did out of Juice last year. Once Juice lost Rashard Mendenhall after the 2007 season, the Illini coaching staff lost any sort of mojo they had…as well as losing their influential offensive coordinator after the 2008 season, Mike Locksley. Juice went from a power option quarterback and one that could throw a bit, to a player that was asked to throw it too much for his skill set. Not surprisingly, Illinois has suffered the past two years.
They return three of five starters on the offensive line, and talents in RB Mikel Leshoure and WR Jarred Fayson. They still have skill position talent in the older classes, but the Zooker’s window is closing fast. They return seven starters on defense, and five of their front seven.
This pick might come back to sting, and I can see myself moving them down in late August. But we’ll keep them here for now.
Predicted Wins: So. Illinois, No. Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota & @NW
Predicted Losses: Missouri, Ohio State, @Penn State, @MSU, @Michigan, @Fresno State
Bowl Prediction: Texas Bowl.
However, they suffer a huge loss in quarterback Mike Kafka to graduation. He was my 1st team All Big Ten quarterback from last year, not that my vote counts but I watch every Big Ten team play at least half of their games. Iowa fans got to see Dan Persa in action, and he will be the likely replacement for Kafka and his 3,430 yards passing and 16 touchdown passes, and 299 yards rushing. Persa is no where near the thrower Kafka built himself in to, or wasn’t when we saw him last fall in Kinnick.
However, he will have all five offensive linemen back this year, a huge boost. He’ll lose the Cats two top receiving targets who each had over 855 yards with Andrew Brewer having nine touchdown receptions.
It’s a different story on defense, the unsung hero for the Cats the last two years. Corey Wootton is gone, and though he wasn’t fully healed during last season after his Alamo bowl ACL injury, he was still someone you had to keep an eye on (see sack of Rick Stanzi that busted him up, even if it was a facemask). Four of Northwestern’s top five tacklers are gone and Wootton wasn’t among those four. Three of their four starting members of the secondary are gone, too.
Predicted Losses: @ Vanderbilt, @Minnesota, Michigan State, @Penn State, Iowa, Illinois @Wisconsin
Predicted Wins: Illinois State, @Rice, C. Michigan, Purdue & @Indiana
I could see this being a shaky pick as well…there are really just two bad teams in the league this year; Indiana and Minnesota, so teams five through nine are hard to pin down. A team with an inexperienced quarterback and a suspect defense don’t fare well on the road.
8th PURDUE 3-5 in Big Ten play, 6-6 overall: The Boilermakers got a boost a few weeks back when coach Danny Hope announced that quarterback Justin Siller would be reinstated after having gotten the boot last year due to some academic improprieties. He’ll be the odds on favorite to replace the departed Joey Elliott who threw for over 3,000 yards last year and 22 touchdown passes. Four of Purdue’s top five receiving targets return along with three of five starting linemen, but leading rusher Ralph Bolden, who gained nearly 1,000 yards last year, suffered and ACL injury this spring and will not likely be ready for the 2010 season.
That’s a big blow and can be the difference between six to eight wins, in my opinion. Then again, maybe not; look at Iowa from 2009. However, the Hawkeye defense was best in the nation status, where Purdue’s defense will not be that good this year, although they do return three of four on the line and two of three linebackers. Maybe I am selling Purdue a bit short here, and of all of my predictions, this one might be the biggest miss I have on the board…this one, or Michigan, which you will see later this week.
Predicted Losses: @Notre Dame, @Northwestern, @Ohio State, @Illinois, Wisconsin & @ Michigan State
Predicted Wins: Western Illinois, Ball State, Toledo, Minnesota, Michigan and Indiana
Bowl Prediction: Dallas Bowl
As you can see with my projected losses, there is room for debate. I could see them beating Northwestern, Illinois and Michigan State. However, all three of those games are on the road, and I am not sold on Siller’s maturity. If it's not Siller, then it will be another player with little to no experience, transfer Robert Marve. As was the case with Northwestern, you have to pack a defense to win on the road, and you need consistent play and leadership from your quarterback; I think Purdue is lacking in both these areas until I see differently.
T-6th Michigan State 4-4 in Big Ten play, 8-4overall: The Spartans return 13 starters; seven on offense and six on defense including several of their top playmakers. Last year, Sparty was tabbed as the #3 team in the league by the conference’s media in Chicago, but they fell short of that perch, finishing 4-4 in league play and 6-7 overall, losing to Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl.
They return two quarterbacks that saw time last year; Kirk Cousins (2,680 passing yards, 19 touchdowns to 9 INT’s) and Keith Nichol. They return a pair of young running backs in Larry Caper and Edwin Baker that showed promise last year. However, they lose three of their five starting offensive linemen and leading reciever Blair White and his 70 receptions for 990 yards. He became an Eric Decker-like presence for Michigan State last year, so his loss will be significant.
Last year’s Big Ten Defensive MVP Greg Jones returns at linebacker, one of the best tacklers in the nation (154 in 2010, to go along with nine sacks). Sparty loses their nose tackle and a starting defensive end, in addition to the loss of a starting linebacker, corner and safety.
This continues to be a program that recruits well enough to perform better on the field than they do, if that makes sense. This has been a program that has underachieved for the better part of the last two decades. Mark Dantonio enters his fourth year in East Lansing with a record of 22-17, which is respectable, but their fans feel a bit let down by the 2009 performance.
Then again, some might argue that Sparty’s job is to just get the fans to mid October and the start of basketball season; anything else is a bonus. I think they’ll get that bonus this year when others don’t expect it.
Predicted Wins: W. Michigan, Fla. Atlantic, Notre Dame, No. Colorado, Illinois, @NW, Minnesota & Purdue
Predicted Losses: Wisconsin, @Michigan, @Iowa & @Penn State
Bowl Projection: I see Sparty going to the Insight, which is the 5th pick in the Big Ten pecking order. However, since I once again see the Big Ten sending two teams to the BCS, this will be the fourth pick from the league, behind the Cap One, Outback and Gator Bowls. This is the slot formerly occupied by the Alamo Bowl, which no longer has an affiliation with the Big Ten.
T-6th Illinois 4-4 in Big Ten play, 6-6 overall: After having made my picks over the weekend and looking at them again this week as I write these capsules, there are some instances where I am second guessing myself. This is one of them…however, I my head hurts too much to go back in and change the math, so we’ll go with this pick for right now and see what develops out of the summer. I typically do this exercise again just before the season starts and after we have had a chance to digest any training camp injuries, so Illinois is a candidate to move south, while Northwestern is a candidate to move north.
But having gone through their schedule, and knowing they do have talent on that roster and the Illini getting to host Indiana, Purdue and Minnesota, there is three wins right there that I can see.
They lose quarterback Juice Williams, but I am not so sure they won’t be able to get as much production out of Nathan Scheelhasse as they did out of Juice last year. Once Juice lost Rashard Mendenhall after the 2007 season, the Illini coaching staff lost any sort of mojo they had…as well as losing their influential offensive coordinator after the 2008 season, Mike Locksley. Juice went from a power option quarterback and one that could throw a bit, to a player that was asked to throw it too much for his skill set. Not surprisingly, Illinois has suffered the past two years.
They return three of five starters on the offensive line, and talents in RB Mikel Leshoure and WR Jarred Fayson. They still have skill position talent in the older classes, but the Zooker’s window is closing fast. They return seven starters on defense, and five of their front seven.
This pick might come back to sting, and I can see myself moving them down in late August. But we’ll keep them here for now.
Predicted Wins: So. Illinois, No. Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota & @NW
Predicted Losses: Missouri, Ohio State, @Penn State, @MSU, @Michigan, @Fresno State
Bowl Prediction: Texas Bowl.
