Head Scratching Betting Lines for this Week

hawkfaninTX

hawkfaninTX

Well-Known Member
http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/football/15947-stone-cold-upsets-lead-pipe-locks-week-3-a-4.html#post228713

Since I was 6-3-1 in the link above last week i will press my luck-- this week has some weird lines that have me interested early.... here are a few:

Miami @ Pitt (+5)
-I would have guessed Pitt as favorites at Home(-4). or at least a pick'em, because the 'Canes are 3-13 against the spread coming off of a bye week. and 2-5 against the spread coming off a straight up loss. Pitt is very strong at home as most Hawk fans remember, going 7-3 against the spread in it's last 10 at Home.
Prediction: Pitt 21 Miami 16

Army @ Duke (-6.5)
-I had Army pegged as a small favorite. Duke is 15-35-1 against the spread in its Last 51 Home games, and are giving up 47.5 ppg. Army will keep this game close and will win by a small margin.
Prediction: Army 17 Duke 14

Stanford @ Notre Dame (+6)
-Stanford has averaged 51.7 ppg while Notre Dame could only muster 24 & 23 against the porous defenses of Michigan and Purdue. I figured Stanford a 2 TD favorite. Stanford has covered the spread by an average of 22.5 EXTRA points. Stanford is just better in all facets.
Prediction: Stanford 34 Notre Dame 20

Oklahoma @ Cincinnati (+17.5)
-Oklahoma is much more powerful and seasoned, and should cover easily. Oklahoma has seen similar offenses before from teams in a pass happy league; like Texas Tech & Missouri. And it helps when Cincinnati is 0-8 against the spread in their last 8 games.
Prediction: Oklahoma 41 Cincinnati 17

Georgia @ Mississippi State (pk)
-Huh? Georgia wins by a TD or more, easily. Georgia has had just about as bad of luck as the Hawks this year: against South Carolina,Georgia fumbles in the red zone instead of a go-ahead score on the road; and last week They tie the game (much like we did) but give up a TD with under a minute remaining in the game to Arkansas. SC and Arkansas are both top 15 teams. Mississippi State played an overated Auburn to a close game, Georgia holds off a Late Mississippi State rally and wins.
Prediction: Georgia 24 Mississippi State 17

Memphis @ UTEP (-10.5)
-UTEP will win by 14+. Memphis is only 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 road games. Memphis has allowed a whopping 38+ ppg and Vittatoe will put up big numbers against their D.
Prediction: UTEP 33 Memphis 13
 
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You know what's crazy? I literally just saw this amazing stat. Look at Cincinnati's line, how many teams can you remember that were a BCS Bowl participant in the previous season being a 3 score dog at home the following year? Incredible, right?
 
hawkfaninTX said:
You know what's crazy? I literally just saw this amazing stat. Look at Cincinnati's line, how many teams can you remember that were a BCS Bowl participant in the previous season being a 3 score dog at home the following year? Incredible, right?
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I was thinking the same thing. And it isn't like Kelly left the cupboard completely bare. Really kind of surprising because the programs he has left have historically been able to maintain their competetive level after he has left. Cincy has fallen off a cliff.
 
very very telling of either the power of a head coach, or the power of the effect on the psyche of the team as a head coach. He Left Central Michigan for Cincy the same way, and they are still a relavant team, it definitely makes you wonder?
 
hawkfaninTX said:
http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/football/15947-stone-cold-upsets-lead-pipe-locks-week-3-a-4.html#post228713

Since I was 5-3-1 in the link above last week i will press my luck-- this week has some weird lines that have me interested early.... here are a few:

Miami @ Pitt (+5)
-I would have guessed Pitt as favorites at Home(-4). or at least a pick'em, because the 'Canes are 3-13 against the spread coming off of a bye week. and 2-5 against the spread coming off a straight up loss. Pitt is very strong at home as most Hawk fans remember, going 7-3 against the spread in it's last 10 at Home.
Prediction: Pitt 21 Miami 16

Army @ Duke (-6.5)
-I had Army pegged as a small favorite. Duke is 15-35-1 against the spread in its Last 51 Home games, and are giving up 47.5 ppg. Army will keep this game close and will win by a small margin.
Prediction: Army 17 Duke 14

Stanford @ Notre Dame (+6)
-Stanford has averaged 51.7 ppg while Notre Dame could only muster 24 & 23 against the porous defenses of Michigan and Purdue. I figured Stanford a 2 TD favorite. Stanford has covered the spread by an average of 22.5 EXTRA points. Stanford is just better in all facets.
Prediction: Stanford 34 Notre Dame 20

Oklahoma @ Cincinnati (+17.5)
-Oklahoma is much more powerful and seasoned, and should cover easily. Oklahoma has seen similar offenses before from teams in a pass happy league; like Texas Tech & Missouri. And it helps when Cincinnati is 0-8 against the spread in their last 8 games.
Prediction: Oklahoma 41 Cincinnati 17

Georgia @ Mississippi State (pk)
-Huh? Georgia wins by a TD or more, easily. Georgia has had just about as bad of luck as the Hawks this year: against South Carolina,Georgia fumbles in the red zone instead of a go-ahead score on the road; and last week They tie the game (much like we did) but give up a TD with under a minute remaining in the game to Arkansas. SC and Arkansas are both top 15 teams. Mississippi State played an overated Auburn to a close game, Georgia holds off a Late Mississippi State rally and wins.
Prediction: Georgia 24 Mississippi State 17

Memphis @ UTEP (-10.5)
-UTEP will win by 14+. Memphis is only 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 road games. Memphis has allowed a whopping 38+ ppg and Vittatoe will put up big numbers against their D.
Prediction: UTEP 33 Memphis 13
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I have to give you props for sticking your neck out there again. If you do good this week I think you should take over Deace's weekly post :)
 
Miami is my play of the week, they should win handily. The Hurricane defense is fast and. The secondary is very good. Pitts inexperience at QB will prove to be a problem and Miami will make them one dimensional. Pressuring Jacory is the key and Pitt will have trouble getting to the QB. Cincy will do ok in the Big East, they had a tough OOC schedule, at NC State and in Fresno is tough enough. The beating Oklahoma is going to give them is the icing on the cake.
 
fufred said:
Miami is my play of the week, they should win handily. The Hurricane defense is fast and. The secondary is very good. Pitts inexperience at QB will prove to be a problem and Miami will make them one dimensional. Pressuring Jacory is the key and Pitt will have trouble getting to the QB. Cincy will do ok in the Big East, they had a tough OOC schedule, at NC State and in Fresno is tough enough. The beating Oklahoma is going to give them is the icing on the cake.
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Beware of the mid-week home underdog! I'd be very careful taking Miami or TCU this week. The mid-week home dogs are tough to beat, and I believe recent history will prove my point. (Just don't have it in front of me at the moment)
 
Yeah there was a streak going for awhile on the home dogs on Thursdays. Pitt and Miami is a talent mismatch and I think Da U will rebound from the OSU loss.
 
"da u" is playing the second game of a three game road stint, with a tough trip to Clemson coming next week. Next week Pitt plays at Home..... versus FIU. Anytime you play three straight road games it will be tough, now add that those thre teams each year are in the top 25 at some point. That is a recipe for two loses (especially when you drop the first!). Pitt played Utah tough in a stadium that holds the nations longest win streak (they will also end the year with only one loss, that being against TCU). At this point, Pitt is better, Miami buckles for the second time in a row in front of a national audience, possibly never to return to the top 25 this season.
 
At no phase of the game is Pitt better except at RB, plus UM has won 8 of the last 9 vs. Pitt. I don't think this game is gonna be very close. I expect the Canes to be in the mix for the ACC BCS berth which is a statement on how bad the ACC is.
 
we are both premature in our predictions, each as bold as the other. This game will either be the fading or turning point for their season. I really think they are going to struggle against some of the ACC teams this year just because of their D.
 
fufred, i have nothing invested in the picking of this game..... while your favorite team has a stake in the outcome of this game- could that be clouding your judgement of how good miami actually is? Could you, in a small way, be rooting for a positive result in this match-up?
 
yeah, well i still have 5 more games to go. Pitt was atrocious, i'll be the first to admit that. I have yet to release my ten picks for this week- these were just ones that initially jumped off the page. more will follow in a different thread that you can feel free picking from the same games to see how we stack up :)
 
I'll tell you right now some games I'm in on. Duke -6 vs. Army, got Oklahoma -13.5 at Cincy, I like Alabama -7 until someone can show me they can stop them, Georgia +1 and small bets on USC -22 and UNC -1. The Miami game covered my weekend though, biggest bet since early last year....
 
hawkfaninTX said:
yeah, well i still have 5 more games to go. Pitt was atrocious, i'll be the first to admit that. I have yet to release my ten picks for this week- these were just ones that initially jumped off the page. more will follow in a different thread that you can feel free picking from the same games to see how we stack up :)
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fufred's logic was more solid than your own. fufred was basing things off of knowledge of both teams and breaking down match-ups. Going off of things like the historical trend of point-spreads is iffy logic, at best.
 
Fufred, I am heading to Vegas in 2 weeks so I'll have to hit you up on some of your locks then. Nice job breaking down the Miami v Pitt game. I didn't see that coming
 
Fufred, I am heading to Vegas in 2 weeks so I'll have to hit you up on some of your locks then. Nice job breaking down the Miami v Pitt game. I didn't see that coming, Wanny is good for a touchdown for the opposition at leat though right?
 
hawkfaninTX said:
yeah, well i still have 5 more games to go. Pitt was atrocious, i'll be the first to admit that. I have yet to release my ten picks for this week- these were just ones that initially jumped off the page. more will follow in a different thread that you can feel free picking from the same games to see how we stack up :)
Click to expand...

Pitt killed me too. Got Army +6.5 although I think I'll regret that. Like BYU as an upset Like the under in the Iowa game. Like Twins and Giants in baseball tonight.
 
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