Hayden Fry in Close Games

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
Earlier on Tuesday, I wrote about Kirk Ferentz's record in games decided by four points or less, linked here.

All day, I was ticked I hadn't looked up the same numbers for Hayden, just to compare it to another successful coach at Iowa, to see if it was similar. None of this is scientific, and I have no idea what this is going to yield as I begin to take this on...this will take about a half hour, but for you, it will be quick...thoughts, whatever they may be, at the bottom. Here are the games Hayden coached at Iowa decided by four points or less.

1979
9/8 vs. *Indiana (8-4) L 26 30
9/22 vs. Nebraska (10-2) L 21 24

1980
9/27 vs. Iowa State (6-5)L 7 10
10/4 vs. Arizona (5-6) L 3 5

1981
9/12 vs. Nebraska (9-3) W 10 7
10/17@ *Michigan (9-3) W 9 7
10/24vs. *Minnesota (6-5)L 10 12

1982
9/25 @ Arizona (6-4-1) W 17 14
10/9 @ *Indiana (5-6) W 24 20
10/30vs. *Illinois (7-5) W 14 13

1983
10/22@ *Michigan (9-3) L 13 16

1984
9/15 vs. Penn State (6-5) L 17 20
10/27@ *Indiana (0-11) W 24 20
11/3 vs. *Wisconsin (7-4-1) T 10 10
11/10 vs. *Michigan State (6-6) L 16 17

1985
10/5 vs. *Michigan State (7-5) W 35 31
10/19vs. *Michigan (10-1-1) W 12 10
11/16 @ *Purdue (5-6) W 27 24

1986
10/4 @ *Michigan State (6-5) W 24 21
10/18@ *Michigan (11-2) L 17 20
11/8 @ *Illinois (4-7) L 16 20
11/22@ *Minnesota (6-6) W 30 27
12/30vs. San Diego State (8-4) W 39 38

1987
8/30 vs. Tennessee (10-2-1) L 22 23 @ East Rutherford, NJ Kick-off Classic
9/12 @ Arizona (4-4-3) W 15 14
11/14@ *Ohio State (6-4-1) W 29 27
12/30vs. Wyoming (10-3) W 20 19

1988
9/3 @ Hawaii (9-3) L 24 27
9/17 vs. Colorado (8-4) L 21 24
10/1 @ *Michigan State (6-5-1)T 10 10
10/15vs. *Michigan (9-2-1) T 17 17
11/12vs. *Ohio State (4-6-1) T 24 24

1989
10/7 vs. *Michigan State (8-4) L 14 17

1990
10/20@ *Michigan (9-3) W 24 23
11/10vs. *Ohio State (7-4-1) L 26 27

1991
10/12@ *Wisconsin (5-6) W 10 6
10/19vs. *Illinois (6-6) W 24 21
12/30vs. Brigham Young (8-3-2) T 13 13

1992
10/10vs. *Wisconsin (5-6)W 23 22

1993
9/4 vs. Tulsa (4-6-1) W 26 25
9/11 @ Iowa State (3-8)W 31 28
11/13@ *Northwestern (2-9) W 23 19

1994
10/29@ *Purdue (4-5-2) T 21 21


43 games by my count, that were decided by four points or less, in Hayden's first 16 years at Iowa (Kirk has been coach 16 full seasons). But Hayden coached just 191 games in his first 16 years, Ferentz 200. So I looked at the first nine games of the 1995 season, and there were none. Iowa didn't play in any 'close games' that year. Not one was within an 8 point possession. 8 wins, four losses...five straight wins, four straight losses, three straight wins, all decided by at least nine points.

Of those 43 games, here was Hayden's record: 22 wins, 15 losses 6 ties. There are probably other observations one can make from this, but my eyes are going cross from doing this..so have at it
 
Most of the close games under Hayden were against bowl eligible teams. I didn't see the clowns or MAC teams listed nearly as often over the same length of years....Kirk needs to learn how to scratch where it itches instead of chomping gum and taking notes.
 
The number of close games Kirk coached compared to Fry is ridiculous. I think it really shows that he isn't putting the teams away that he should. I guess you could also argue he is keeping games close against better teams but I highly doubt that arguement holds water.
 
That last tie against Purdue is bogus. Iowa stopped them short on the 2 point conversion! Wish they had replay for that.
 
So... .405 vs. .400. Essentially identical. EDIT: In close games Kirk is .400, Hayden .512, or actually .581 if you count ties as 0.5 win.

Close games against bowl eligible teams:
Hayden 30 of 43 (70%)
Kirk 37 of 50 (74%)

Check my math as bowl eligibility rules have changed, but I believe this is close.
 
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Billso said:
So... .405 vs. .400. Essentially identical.

Close games against bowl eligible teams:
Hayden 30 of 43 (70%)
Kirk 37 of 50 (74%)

Check my math as bowl eligibility rules have changed, but I believe this is close.
Click to expand...

Yea I have no problem with Kirk's total body of work against good teams. What I would like to see is the numbers of both coaches against non bowl eligible teams. Since you already have those numbers, you would just have to subtract them from their total close games right?
 
Not to mention that Brian Alford pushed off against Plez Atkins to even get that touchdown when Iowa was leading 21-13. On the conversion Billy Dicken was tackled by John Hartlieb at the 2 yard line his knee touched the ground before he stretched. 21 years later it still makes me upset!
 
Hawknick said:
Not to mention that Brian Alford pushed off against Plez Atkins to even get that touchdown when Iowa was leading 21-13. On the conversion Billy Dicken was tackled by John Hartlieb at the 2 yard line his knee touched the ground before he stretched. 21 years later it still makes me upset!
Click to expand...

No he didnt. No we wasn't. No it doesn't.

That's kinda fun.
 
Billso said:
Comparable to Kirk, see above.



37 in his first 200 games, vs. 30 in Hayden's first 200 games. It's more, but probably not "ridiculous".
Click to expand...

It's actually 43 and 50 but you're right it's not ridiculous. I misremembered Kirk's number as higher. My bad.
 
Billso said:
So... .405 vs. .400. Essentially identical.

Close games against bowl eligible teams:
Hayden 30 of 43 (70%)
Kirk 37 of 50 (74%)

Check my math as bowl eligibility rules have changed, but I believe this is close.
Click to expand...

So does this stat mean Kirk has only had 13 close games against non bowl eligible teams? That seems like a really low number to me. I guess there have been a lot of close games with MAC teams and UNI and such that probably got to 6 wins because their schedule. There are also the horrible losses to non bowl eligible teams where we lost by more than 4.

I'm pretty positive that Kirk has had a lot more bad games against bad teams than Fry did. This stat doesn't really show it though.
 
The Eyeball test.....Hayden wins against Kirk here. We are not seeing a lot of close games here against poorer competition (MAC Teams, ISU, etc). Hayden generally speaking put away bad teams.....put a hurting on them like Iowa should against bad competition. Though, I remember Hayden's teams getting spanked more frequently (losing by several scores) by the better teams they played when they lost as compared to Kirk's teams playing against the better teams on his schedule.

Translation (just eyeball test):

Kirk's team play up and down to their level of competition. They have been upset more by bad teams, but have had a few more upsets against good teams they have played.

Hayden beat the teams he was suppose to beat and soundly beat them, but also lost more frequently to the teams he was suppose to lose to.

It is a cyclical cycle and I think fans are wanting to get back more to the ladder (Hayden predictablity) with obviously hoping Iowa can put it all together a year or two out of every 4 years (like Hayden's teams used to do).
 
Billso said:
So... .405 vs. .400. Essentially identical.

Close games against bowl eligible teams:
Hayden 30 of 43 (70%)
Kirk 37 of 50 (74%)

Check my math as bowl eligibility rules have changed, but I believe this is close.
Click to expand...

I'm confused at the bolded. Kirk is 20-30. Hayden was 22-15-6 according to Jon's summary at the bottom.
 
From 1979 to 1992 the scholarship limit was 95, now it is 85. That does affect things a little as it relates to parity.
 
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There will never be a coach at Iowa as good as Fry was. He was one cool customer and always great in the close games. He was born to be an offensive coordinator/head coach. Ferentz is a fine coach but he is really a line coach who was promoted to head coach. Big difference.
 
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