The distinction between an underachieving season and an over-achieving football season comes down to the overall record in games decided by 7 points or less.
Look at the past 3 Hawkeye Seasons:
2008:
Overall Record: 9-4
Record in games decided by 7 points or less: 2-4
Losses: Pitt (1 point), Northwestern (5), MSU (3), Illinois (3)
Wins: Purdue (5 points) PSU (1)
That 2008 team had a ton of talent and should have easily won the Pitt game (played the wrong QB) and the NU game. The MSU game was lost on a missed 4th and 1 conversion and Illinois had a last minute drive to win by a FG. Now on the flip side, the Purdue game wasn’t as close as the final score, but the PSU game goes down as one of the all time thrillers in Kinnick. The best part of 2008 was that the Hawks truly were playing their best football at the end of the year.
2009:
Overall Record: 11-2
Record in games decided by 7 points or less: 4-2
Losses: NW (7), OSU (3)
Wins: UNI (1), Arkansas St (3), Michigan (2), MSU (2)
Great year that could have been an unbelievable year if Stanzi doesn’t get hurt. The Hawks were clutch when they needed to be, which is why the team overachieved compared to predictions.
2010:
Overall Record: 8-5
Record in games decided by 7 points or less: 2-5
Losses: Arizona (7), WIS (1), NW (4), OSU (3), Minny (3)
Wins: Indiana (5), Missouri (3)
The Hawks weren’t clutch in the 4th quarter. Way too many games saw our D-line winded and totally gassed and our offensive play calling and clock management in a lot of the losses was brutally bad.
So for 2011 here are the games that I think will be decided by 7 points or less:
At PSU, NW, Michigan, MSU and At Nebraska
If the Hawks can go 3-2 or better in these games, I think they will exceed expectations.
If they go 2-3, I think they will perform right about where most experts have them pegged to finish.
If they go 1-4 or worse, they will underachieve.
Look at the past 3 Hawkeye Seasons:
2008:
Overall Record: 9-4
Record in games decided by 7 points or less: 2-4
Losses: Pitt (1 point), Northwestern (5), MSU (3), Illinois (3)
Wins: Purdue (5 points) PSU (1)
That 2008 team had a ton of talent and should have easily won the Pitt game (played the wrong QB) and the NU game. The MSU game was lost on a missed 4th and 1 conversion and Illinois had a last minute drive to win by a FG. Now on the flip side, the Purdue game wasn’t as close as the final score, but the PSU game goes down as one of the all time thrillers in Kinnick. The best part of 2008 was that the Hawks truly were playing their best football at the end of the year.
2009:
Overall Record: 11-2
Record in games decided by 7 points or less: 4-2
Losses: NW (7), OSU (3)
Wins: UNI (1), Arkansas St (3), Michigan (2), MSU (2)
Great year that could have been an unbelievable year if Stanzi doesn’t get hurt. The Hawks were clutch when they needed to be, which is why the team overachieved compared to predictions.
2010:
Overall Record: 8-5
Record in games decided by 7 points or less: 2-5
Losses: Arizona (7), WIS (1), NW (4), OSU (3), Minny (3)
Wins: Indiana (5), Missouri (3)
The Hawks weren’t clutch in the 4th quarter. Way too many games saw our D-line winded and totally gassed and our offensive play calling and clock management in a lot of the losses was brutally bad.
So for 2011 here are the games that I think will be decided by 7 points or less:
At PSU, NW, Michigan, MSU and At Nebraska
If the Hawks can go 3-2 or better in these games, I think they will exceed expectations.
If they go 2-3, I think they will perform right about where most experts have them pegged to finish.
If they go 1-4 or worse, they will underachieve.
