Hawkeyes Keep NCAA Dreams Alive, Beat Illini

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
Iowa's chances at an NCAA at large were slim before its game against Illinois. After a 63-55 win, the Hawkeyes chances are not as slim.

The Hawkeyes came out firing early, getting out to a 9-3 lead that opened up to double digits before eight minutes were gone in the game. But Iowa let the Illini back in it and even surrendered the lead late in the first half before taking a 31-28 lead into the break.

Both teams struggled to execute on offense for the first six or seven minutes of the second half, despite putting forth quite a bit of energy and getting up and down the court.

It was 48-46 Iowa with 4:01 to play when Josh Oglesby made a huge three-point shot after starting the game 0-4 from long range and in the midst of a 2-19 shooting slump from beyond the arc. He then hit another trey during Iowa's next trip down the court and Iowa's lead moved to 54-46. The Hawkeyes would get the lead up to 11 before Illinois pulled to within six after some deep three's but the Hawkeyes would hang on for the win.

Devyn Marble led Iowa with 21 points including 10 of 10 from the free throw line. It's his seventh straight game leading Iowa in scoring and it looks like he's shaken the ill effects of the turf to that plagued him from the start of the year through the middle of the campaign. Oglesby scored 10 for Iowa. Gabe Olaseni scored two points and had two rebounds but was a force on the inside with six blocked shots as Iowa blocked 12 as a team, tying a school and arena record.

Iowa was just 21-54 shooting for the game but they held the Illini to 18-63, including 9-29 from beyond the arc. Illinois shot 34 two-point shots and Iowa rejected 35.2 percent of those.

Back to the NCAA at large talk. Before the game, I wrote where I felt Iowa had to go on a four-game winning streak in order to be a legit bubble team. The win over Illinois will be one of Iowa's four best on the season; they have four quality wins for the selection committee to look over as of right now. I think Iowa will beat Nebraska on Saturday but I also think Minnesota will at least split their last two games and do no worse than a tie with Iowa in the standings and they hold the tiebreaker advantage, so the Hawkeyes will likely wind up with the 7th seed in the Big Ten Tournament and they will play 10th seeded Nebraska. Win that game and they will face the 2nd seed, which will be either Michigan State or Wisconsin, but most likely the Spartans.

Getting back to back wins against Nebraska would look nice in the win column 10 years from now but it's not going to do anything for Iowa's NCAA resume. They would have to get that fourth win in a row against either the two seed or three seed. Iowa can get to the 6th seed, who would play 11th seeded Northwestern in the first round and likely would play Wisconsin in the second round, if Minnesota loses its last two games.

I still think the Hawkeyes are a long shot, but at least they are still in the conversation.
 
I think 2 more wins will do a lot more than you guys think. Our RPI jumped 11 spots with the win, and bubble teams are popping everywhere.
Baylor, Arkansas, So Miss, etc
 
The bubble really isnt that different than past years. Most if not all at large teams will have 20+ wins, and be .500 or better in conference.
 
We have a pretty decent shot of finishing 6th, 9-9 in conference in a year where the league is considered the best and not even being on the bubble.

Strange.
 
TLDR, what did it say? It would help our RPI if we got Nebraska in the first round in Chicago (assuming we beat them both times), because their RPI is still inflated (102) for some reason. It would be better than playing Purdue or Penn St.
 
TLDR, what did it say? It would help our RPI if we got Nebraska in the first round in Chicago (assuming we beat them both times), because their RPI is still inflated (102) for some reason. It would be better than playing Purdue or Penn St.

And if they were to upset Minnesota at home it turns into a good win as they would be in the top 100. Nebraska actually played a pretty good non conference and got a couple of good wins.
 
I hope the NCAA officials weren't watching. That game was ugly.
 
Iowa can get the six seed if Minnesota loses twice or if they lose once and Illinois upsets Ohio st forcing a 3 way tie for 6th. Iowa would hold the tie breaker. While I think minn will lose to Purdue I don't think Illinois will win so 7 seed seems likely. Also northwestern gets penn st at home in their next game so there is a good chance northwestern will be the 10 seed. It seems a multiple team tie atop the standings is likely. Indiana still holds the majority of tie breakers and will likely get the one seed even if they lose at Michigan. The only way they can't is if Wisconsin beats mich st and Indiana loses to Michigan. Wisconsin would hold the tie breaker in that scenario and get the one seed. If there is a four way tie between Indiana Ohio st mich and mich st (which seems to be fairly likely if there are no upsets), then Indiana will be the one. Osu the two, Michigan three, msu four
 
If we would have beat nebby I'd really be looking for a bubble spot but I think that win will do us in.
 
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