Garza And Fouls...

[Fryowa]

Was thinking this morning how UNC is probably going to be driving the ball hard on Luka often and early. One doesn't need to be a rocket scientist to see that if you remove him from the equation things get a whole lot easier.

So then I wondered how our winning percentage last year correlated to whether Garza was in foul trouble or not, and when I pulled the numbers the results were pretty shocking, at least in my opinion. Below you can see that last year in games where LG had 4-5 fouls the Hawks had a winning percentage of .286. When he had 3 or fewer fouls they were winning at a .750 rate. That's frickin huge...My immediate first thought was that if he's fouling he must be playing way fewer minutes, but not really. 4-5 fouls he averaged 32.4 minutes, 3 or fewer fouls he averaged 31.8 minutes.

Even if you disregard the 0-2 foul games and only look at the 3 foul games, the difference is still huge (.600 vs. .286).

Now, there are a million reasons one could argue as the cause for it...playing lesser-talented teams, front-loading minutes against lesser teams, etc., but the point remains, if you can get Garza in foul trouble for any reason at all, you're going to have a statistically very significant chance of winning the ballgame. If I'm Roy Williams I'm telling my guys to take it to the hole from the get go. Priority number one has to be getting Luka to 3 fouls before half, non-negotiable.

 

[FCAS]

My immediate first thought was that if he's fouling he must be playing way fewer minutes, but not really. 4-5 fouls he averaged 32.4 minutes, 3 or fewer fouls he averaged 31.8 minutes.

His minutes may not have dropped much, but he certainly we be less aggressive, and Iowa probably had to play more zone. That would explain some of it

 

[Fryowa]

His minutes may not have dropped much, but he certainly we be less aggressive, and Iowa probably had to play more zone. That would explain some of it

There's definitely reasons for it, my main point is that whatever those reasons are, if you can get him to 4 fouls you're more than likely going to win that game.

A .464 drop in winning percentage when he picks up that 4th foul is ridiculous.

 

[kicker22]

There's definitely reasons for it, my main point is that whatever those reasons are, if you can get him to 4 fouls you're more than likely going to win that game.

A .464 drop in winning percentage when he picks up that 4th foul is ridiculous.

I think your right. Not looking at a game by game breakdown, but these stats make me wonder about the depth of the teams that got him to 4 fouls. I think to drive his foul count up that high you've got to have the bodies available, because chances are if they're going at it hard enough to get his foul count up that high then Garza's probably been fouled a number of times as well.

 

[Ian Pike Hammer]

Was thinking this morning how UNC is probably going to be driving the ball hard on Luka often and early. One doesn't need to be a rocket scientist to see that if you remove him from the equation things get a whole lot easier.

So then I wondered how our winning percentage last year correlated to whether Garza was in foul trouble or not, and when I pulled the numbers the results were pretty shocking, at least in my opinion. Below you can see that last year in games where LG had 4-5 fouls the Hawks had a winning percentage of .286. When he had 3 or fewer fouls they were winning at a .750 rate. That's frickin huge...My immediate first thought was that if he's fouling he must be playing way fewer minutes, but not really. 4-5 fouls he averaged 32.4 minutes, 3 or fewer fouls he averaged 31.8 minutes.

Even if you disregard the 0-2 foul games and only look at the 3 foul games, the difference is still huge (.600 vs. .286).

Now, there are a million reasons one could argue as the cause for it...playing lesser-talented teams, front-loading minutes against lesser teams, etc., but the point remains, if you can get Garza in foul trouble for any reason at all, you're going to have a statistically very significant chance of winning the ballgame. If I'm Roy Williams I'm telling my guys to take it to the hole from the get go. Priority number one has to be getting Luka to 3 fouls before half, non-negotiable.

EXACTLY! that's why it's so important for JBo to do his job upfront!!!! He could potentially cost us the game half-assing it on defense.

 

[Casey388]

I think you guys are on to something with how aggressive he was when he isn't in foul trouble compared to when he is. Just quickly looking at the numbers, it appears his average free throw attempts goes down quite a bit when he is in foul trouble, compared to the games when he isn't.

 

[FCAS]

It's not nearly as egregious as the NBA, but I think there is a little bit of "star treatment" going on with respect to fouls in college too. One can only hope

 

[Hillcrest1981]

I wonder if it's best at all to play Garza and Nunge together until we see if Garza can get through the first ten minutes with 1 or less fouls.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I haven’t done any research. But I’m pretty confident virtually every team’s winning percentage drops significantly when their best player is in foul trouble. This is especially true if said player is 1st team AA and conference POY. I suspect part of our game plan is to get the opposing team’s best player in foul trouble.

I’m not suggesting I disagree with the intent of the original post. I do think there’s more size, length and athleticism to help this year than last year...Nunge, Patrick and Murray compared to just Kriener last year.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

Thankfully he doesn't get in foul trouble a ton Garza is pretty smart out there as aggressive as he is. And Fry you did make reference to this it's not just how many fouls but when you commit them.

Committing say 2 fouls before the first TV TO is terrible. But if you commit just 1 in the first half and 3 as the 2nd half is going on in a close game it really won't affect how many mins he ends up playing. To me it's all about the first 10 mins of the game. If he doesn't commit his 2nd foul till halfway through the first half or later I think we should be in good shape.

But yeah keeping him on the floor 32 plus mins is paramount to how this team will do.

We could also include JW with this discussion. We have to keep him on the floor and he's guarding the other teams athletic scorers too mixing it up inside and out. Keeping him out of foul trouble might be just as hard to do.

 

[ssckelley]

You look at those losses and I'm surprised at how many minutes Garza was still able to play in those games. So this isn't a Garza not being on the court thing, this is a how aggressive Garza is able to play when he's getting called for extra fouls.

 

[Ian Pike Hammer]

IMHO, Nunge is a step up from Kriener of last year, so a foul-plagued Garza can be replaced for several MORE MINUTES than last year.