I don't think most coaches make record projections, or even judge their team solely on record after the end of the season. Most people who have played sports in a solid program have gotten their butts chewed after a win at some point. I think Fran expects the guys to go at maximum effort, and he probably hasn't even thought about what their record 'should' be.
If they do finish 10-8, though, I'm sure he'll be pleased with the effort and the progress.
Aside: After watching yesterday's replay of the Iowa-Indiana game at Carver last year and watching about five minutes of Indiana's game today, I've decided I really want to see the Hawks give those toolbags an 0-1 start to the conference this year. It'll be a tall task, but those guys (esp. Hulls, Sheehey, and Oladipo) annoy me.