STILLBUSTER
Well-Known Member
[ IMPROVEMENT UNDER McCAFFERY IN SECOND YEAR OF PROGRAMFran McCaffery-coached teams have posted improved win totals from their first year to second with McCaffery as a head coach. At Lehigh, his team improved by two wins (13 in 1986 to 15 in 1987). His UNC Greensboro team had four more victories from 2000 (15) and 2001 (19). At Siena his team improved by five victories, registering 15 in 2006 to 20 in 2007. ]
The above is from the routine U of I release before every game over on Hawkeyesports.com. I read it for the first time before the Clemson game, and, despite the awesome blowout losses and how horrible the team has regressed the last 10 days, it actually gave me hope for the rest of the season. Then, Clemson ...
As you can see, each progressive stop in his career showed greater improvement between years 1 and 2 than his previous stop -- +2 games (+15%) better his first gig, +4 games (+27%) better is 2nd, +5 games (+33%) better his 3rd. If he can just match his average level of improvement, he should win 3 or 4 more games (+11 / 3) this year, which would also be about right with his average annual % of wins improvement (30% - 40%).
This all = 13 or 14 W's this season. My concern, where do you get 10 more wins in the schedule?
While there isn't a single "guarantee" left, I'm hoping they beat:
Brown, Central-Ark, & Boise St.
Beyond that, they MIGHT have a chance at home against:
Nebraska, Minny, PSU, Indiana & NwU
less likely:
at Minny, at PSU.
I give 'em a 50% chance of winning 7 more and a 30% chance of winning 10 more.
Is Iowa really so horrible that it could destroy Fran-Mac's rep of being a rebuilder and track record of progressive improvement?
I still believe he actually has MORE overall athletic and bball talent and depth than he had last year. Which brings him to his first cross road with regards to the future of the Iowa program and his ability to coach when that his team is not mentally talented. Here's what he faces:
The rotation is, at best, desparation scatter-shot. Objectively identify your best 5 and go with them. If you recognize guys are struggling because they need to get in the flow, than quit the quick-hook, experimental rotations that disrupt that flow.
Are you focusing too much on getting May, Basabe, Brommer (and, somewhat, Cartwright) on track -- allowing them to fail to perform, game after game after game -- to the detriment of the TEAM development? Continuing to bet on the come with these guys is thin ice in terms of the message to the younger talent, who are willing to work harder for little reward. (YES! It is an effort, intensity, pride and toughness issue as much as it is a talent / funk issue).
There is absolutely NOTHING to play for maintaining the status quo. On a positive note, there is absolutely NOTHING to lose overhauling the status quo.
Right now, the gamble with the least to lose and most to gain is not on Basabe, Brommer, Cartwright, Gatens and May getting on track but on honing the skills and, most importantly, developing the competitive toughness of Oglesby, White, Olaseni, McCabe and Marble. They need to gain experience and take their lumps and develop thier hunger.
I believe in the impression Fran portrays as being astute enough to recognize the big picture and having the integrity to do what's necessary for the program. I'm also convinced these are the crucial decision points he has to reconcile before Brown comes to town.
The above is from the routine U of I release before every game over on Hawkeyesports.com. I read it for the first time before the Clemson game, and, despite the awesome blowout losses and how horrible the team has regressed the last 10 days, it actually gave me hope for the rest of the season. Then, Clemson ...
As you can see, each progressive stop in his career showed greater improvement between years 1 and 2 than his previous stop -- +2 games (+15%) better his first gig, +4 games (+27%) better is 2nd, +5 games (+33%) better his 3rd. If he can just match his average level of improvement, he should win 3 or 4 more games (+11 / 3) this year, which would also be about right with his average annual % of wins improvement (30% - 40%).
This all = 13 or 14 W's this season. My concern, where do you get 10 more wins in the schedule?
While there isn't a single "guarantee" left, I'm hoping they beat:
Brown, Central-Ark, & Boise St.
Beyond that, they MIGHT have a chance at home against:
Nebraska, Minny, PSU, Indiana & NwU
less likely:
at Minny, at PSU.
I give 'em a 50% chance of winning 7 more and a 30% chance of winning 10 more.
Is Iowa really so horrible that it could destroy Fran-Mac's rep of being a rebuilder and track record of progressive improvement?
I still believe he actually has MORE overall athletic and bball talent and depth than he had last year. Which brings him to his first cross road with regards to the future of the Iowa program and his ability to coach when that his team is not mentally talented. Here's what he faces:
The rotation is, at best, desparation scatter-shot. Objectively identify your best 5 and go with them. If you recognize guys are struggling because they need to get in the flow, than quit the quick-hook, experimental rotations that disrupt that flow.
Are you focusing too much on getting May, Basabe, Brommer (and, somewhat, Cartwright) on track -- allowing them to fail to perform, game after game after game -- to the detriment of the TEAM development? Continuing to bet on the come with these guys is thin ice in terms of the message to the younger talent, who are willing to work harder for little reward. (YES! It is an effort, intensity, pride and toughness issue as much as it is a talent / funk issue).
There is absolutely NOTHING to play for maintaining the status quo. On a positive note, there is absolutely NOTHING to lose overhauling the status quo.
Right now, the gamble with the least to lose and most to gain is not on Basabe, Brommer, Cartwright, Gatens and May getting on track but on honing the skills and, most importantly, developing the competitive toughness of Oglesby, White, Olaseni, McCabe and Marble. They need to gain experience and take their lumps and develop thier hunger.
I believe in the impression Fran portrays as being astute enough to recognize the big picture and having the integrity to do what's necessary for the program. I'm also convinced these are the crucial decision points he has to reconcile before Brown comes to town.
. Most of the folks on this site would be outraged (unless they win, of course).
