Forecasting the NCAA basketball top 25 in 2013-14



After digesting the post-season, the "Iowa-factor" has me backpedaling, just a bit, on next season's expectations. I still think Iowa is an NCAA lock next year but have tempered the "B1G contentender" thoughts.

I see a mid-teens ranking, most likely heading into conference play, and 3rd / 4th in the B1G as the ceiling for this team, based on the following:

-- The biggest issue -- making baskets -- is still unsettled. Notice I said, "making baskets".
1) While it's hard to imagine being any worse, outside shooting is still unproven between Uthoff and Jok (JO is proven to be bad, in games.)
2) I couldn't believe the bunnies missed against Baylor. Then, really thinking about it, this wasn't the first game were 3-5 foot shots were short-stringed. Woodbury really needs to find a mean streak attacking the rim. Dude is too deliberate with his backdown and has alligator-arms when he finally does shoot. Which leads to the next concern ...

-- Front-Court toughness and physicality. See Woody, above. White tends to flail about as much as attack the basket and Mel just being undersized. I was amazed to see how guys like McGary, Dieng, Len and even skinny Austin just owned the lane. In comparison, it made me realize how physically challenged the Hawk's front-court is.

-- The loss of May, for a couple reasons.
1) He's the most athletic defender on the team. Of all things, the most significant improvement this season was on D and May's intensity was a huge part of that.
2) His leadership. Against Baylor, we saw how Dev tried to do too much and the rest of the team just willingly grabbed a seat to watch and wait. May was the guy that got into him. He also had some words for Dev several other times throughout the season and, noticeably, during the NIT run, when he was getting a little too out of control. Yes, Dev is the best all-around player on the team and gets his but May contributed a lot to Dev's box score by keeping him in check. Who's going to do that next year? Answer: No one.

Again, still very excited for next season and believe it will be another step forward in terms of success, but just not as wild-eyed as I was a week ago.
 


After digesting the post-season, the "Iowa-factor" has me backpedaling, just a bit, on next season's expectations. I still think Iowa is an NCAA lock next year but have tempered the "B1G contentender" thoughts.

I see a mid-teens ranking, most likely heading into conference play, and 3rd / 4th in the B1G as the ceiling for this team, based on the following:

-- The biggest issue -- making baskets -- is still unsettled. Notice I said, "making baskets".
1) While it's hard to imagine being any worse, outside shooting is still unproven between Uthoff and Jok (JO is proven to be bad, in games.)
2) I couldn't believe the bunnies missed against Baylor. Then, really thinking about it, this wasn't the first game were 3-5 foot shots were short-stringed. Woodbury really needs to find a mean streak attacking the rim. Dude is too deliberate with his backdown and has alligator-arms when he finally does shoot. Which leads to the next concern ...

-- Front-Court toughness and physicality. See Woody, above. White tends to flail about as much as attack the basket and Mel just being undersized. I was amazed to see how guys like McGary, Dieng, Len and even skinny Austin just owned the lane. In comparison, it made me realize how physically challenged the Hawk's front-court is.

-- The loss of May, for a couple reasons.
1) He's the most athletic defender on the team. Of all things, the most significant improvement this season was on D and May's intensity was a huge part of that.
2) His leadership. Against Baylor, we saw how Dev tried to do too much and the rest of the team just willingly grabbed a seat to watch and wait. May was the guy that got into him. He also had some words for Dev several other times throughout the season and, noticeably, during the NIT run, when he was getting a little too out of control. Yes, Dev is the best all-around player on the team and gets his but May contributed a lot to Dev's box score by keeping him in check. Who's going to do that next year? Answer: No one.

Again, still very excited for next season and believe it will be another step forward in terms of success, but just not as wild-eyed as I was a week ago.

Agree with the part about May but he was also a part of the not making baskets problem we had. He rarely looked to shoot, and while extremely efficient when he did, there were times when we could have used more offense out of him. Replacing him with a more capable scorer will make up for some of what we lose on defense.
 


I have supreme confidence in Fran's ability to solve problem areas over the offseason. Last offseason he said defense was the focus,and it improved by miles...this season he says shooting is a priority,and cites Uthoff and Jok as part of the solution,so I am very confident that we will shoot the rock better next year.

If that happens and our frosh/soph big guys have natural maturation,we will be in the hunt in the Big Ten next year....I like #16.
 




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