SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Final 2011 College Football Report
Final Top 25
If I had a vote in the AP Poll this would be my ballot based on how good I think the teams are right now.
1. LSU (13-1)…The Tigers still had the better season and played the better schedule. They soundly beat two non-conference opponents with explosive offenses who also won BCS bowls. They beat Alabama on their own field. They won the best conference in the country. I’m not going to penalize them for losing a game to a team in a revenge match that was almost 50 days after the season concluded.
2. Alabama (12-1)…Put forth a dominant effort in the BCS national championship game, but over the course of the season LSU was the better team that played the better schedule. There is no doubt the Crimson Tide played defense at a historic level statistically this season. However, other than LSU they only played one team all season in the top 60 nationally in scoring offense, and four of Alabama’s opponents were 100th or worst in scoring offense. In addition, until there’s a true tournament I philosophically don’t believe a team that couldn’t win its own conference should win the national championship.
3. Oklahoma State (12-1)…Finished off the best season in school history with a thrilling overtime victory in their first BCS bowl.
4. Oregon (12-2)…Won their first Rose Bowl since 1917, and that could be a springboard to Chip Kelly’s best team yet next season.
5. Stanford (11-2)…The Cardinal is going to take a major hit in player attrition aside from Andrew Luck, so now we’ll really find out how good of a coach David Shaw is.
6. Arkansas (11-2)…Only two losses this season was against the top two teams in the country, and both were on the road.
7. Boise State (12-1)…For the second straight season the Broncos’ national title hopes were dashed by a kicker choking in the clutch.
8. Michigan (11-2)…It didn’t take long for Brady Hoke to right the ship, and the Wolverines won their first BCS bowl in 12 years. For more on my thoughts on this season for Michigan and what it means, click here. Beyond that, I ranked Michigan higher than Wisconsin and Michigan State in my final poll by virtue of having played a tougher schedule and posting more quality wins.
9. Michigan State (11-3)…One year after getting dismantled by a SEC team in a Florida bowl game, Sparty returns to post a thrilling comeback victory over a SEC team that positively changes the perception of the program.
10. South Carolina (11-2)…Posted its first 11-win season in school history despite not finishing the year with its All-American running back and starting quarterback.
11. Wisconsin (11-3)…The Badgers might have played the most unimpressive schedule of any Big Ten champion since the days of the Big 2 and the little 8.
12. Baylor (10-3)…Best season on the Brazos since 1986, which is the last time the Bears won at least 9 games.
13. TCU (11-2)…Pretty good “rebuilding year†when you still win 11 games and an outright conference title.
14. Oklahoma (10-3)…It’s not often a 10-win season is a disappointment, but when you’re the preseason #1 team and you don’t even win your own conference and finish with three losses, in this case it is.
16. Kansas State (10-3)…The Cotton Bowl didn’t turn out well for the Wildcats, but that should do little to dampen an otherwise stellar season.
17. West Virginia (10-3)…Surprising Orange Bowl rout could be a bad omen for Big East foes in 2012, since the Mountaineers return virtually every key piece of their potent offense.
18. Southern Mississippi (12-2)…Perhaps the most overshadowed program in the country, the Golden Eagles are to college football what Xavier is to college basketball: a mid-major program with a solid foundation which any competent young coach can use as a springboard to future success.
19. Houston (13-1)…Case Keenum and the Cougars took full advantage of a Penn State program in total and complete disarray.
20. Georgia (10-4)…Some very questionable timid coaching by Mark Richt down the stretch cost his Bulldogs a bowl win.
21. Clemson (10-4)…Winning its first conference title in 20 years is nothing to sneeze at, but what was that in the Orange Bowl?
22. Virginia Tech (11-3)…Ironic that it was special teams, long Coach Frank Beamer’s trademark, which cost the Hokies the Sugar Bowl.
23. Florida State (9-4)…Finished 4th nationally in scoring defense, and averaged over 31 points per game, so how did Seminoles lose four times?
24. Cincinnati (10-3)…Anybody else notice the Bearcats won more games in year two since Brian Kelly left for Notre Dame, then Notre Dame won in year two with Brian Kelly?
25. Nebraska (9-4)…No way around it, this was a disappointing season for Nebraska and both the defense and Taylor Martinez took a step back.
Honorable Mention:
26. BYU (10-3), 27. Missouri (8-5), 28. Northern Illinois (11-3), 29. Auburn (8-5), 30. Utah (8-5).
Reconciling My Preseason Predictions
How did my preseason projections of how the season would play out on July 25th reconcile with the final poll?
1. Alabama
2. Oklahoma
3. Wisconsin
4. LSU
5. Texas A&M
6. Stanford
7. Florida State
8. Boise State
9. Nebraska
10. Virginia Tech
11. Oregon
12. Notre Dame
13. Oklahoma State
14. Arkansas
15. Michigan State
16. Georgia
17. South Carolina
18. Michigan
19. TCU
20. Arizona State
21. Mississippi State
22. South Florida
23. Florida
24. Missouri
25. Miami, Fla.
Reconciling My Crystal Ball Predictions
Back on July 25th I made 25 predictions for the 2011 season. How many of them actually came true?
1. This will be Joe Paterno’s final season. Right
2. Steve Spurrier will retire at the end of the season. Wrong
3. Urban Meyer will not return to college coaching. Wrong
4. New conference members Nebraska and Boise State will either win their conferences in their first seasons or qualify for their conference championship games. Wrong on both counts
5. Ohio State’s best in the nation streak of six straight BCS bowl appearances will end. Right
6. Since the NCAA won’t be ready to announce the penalties against the Ohio State football program until at least after the first of the year, leaving the program in flux, Luke Fickell will be named the permanent head coach. Wrong
7. Frank Beamer will retire at Virginia Tech, and the school will appoint heralded defensive coordinator Bud Foster his successor. Wrong on this for the second year in a row
8. The streak of national champions from the SEC will end at five. Wrong
9. Brady Hoke will win more games in his first season at Michigan than Rich Rodriguez won in his third and final season in Ann Arbor. Right
10. Michigan will snap its worst ever seven-year losing streak to Ohio State. Right
11. Rich Rodriguez will be the next coach at Clemson. Wrong
12. Stanford’s Andrew Luck will win the Heisman Trophy. Wrong
13. There will be no undefeated teams remaining when the final BCS ratings are released on December 4th. Wrong
14. Texas A&M will make its first BCS bowl appearance since 1998. Wrong
15. ESPN will say goodbye to longtime College Gamedayco-host Lee Corso at the end of the season and replace him with Mark May. TBD
16. Houston’s Case Keenum will return from a knee injury to break Timmy Chang’s NCAA career passing yardage record, as well as Graham Harrell’s NCAA career touchdown passes mark. Right
17. The Big 12 will be the only BCS conference without any coaching changes. Wrong
18. The inaugural Big Ten Championship Game will be the highest-rated televised game of the season, other than the BCS National Championship and the Rose Bowl. Wrong
19. Defending national champion Auburn will lose at least four games. Right
20. The results of the season’s top five non-conference games will be:
LSU over Oregon…The suspension of All-American Cliff Harris means the Ducks will play their biggest game of the season without the best player on defense and special teams. Right
Oklahoma over Florida State…Revenge spot for the Seminoles, who were thrashed last year in Norman, but the Sooners are the overall better team. Right
Georgia over Boise State…This time the Broncos venture east and lose thanks to the loss of several key players who graduated. Wrong
Texas A&M over Arkansas…Hard to believe the Aggies have been waiting since 1991 to get a win in this old SWC rivalry. Wrong
Michigan over Notre Dame…Wolverines lost first night game in Notre Dame Stadium history in 1982, and now it’s the Irish’s turn to return the favor. Right
21. Ohio State, Penn State, and Auburn will start the season ranked in the top 25 but won’t finish there. Right on all three.
22. South Florida, Michigan, and Mississippi State will begin the season outside the top 25 but will finish there. Wrong except for Michigan
23. The following first year coaches will lead their teams to bowl games this season: Steve Addazio (Temple), Bill Blankenship (Tulsa), Dave Doeren (Northern Illinois), Randy Edsall (Maryland), Al Golden (Miami, Fla.), Todd Graham (Pittsburgh), Brady Hoke (Michigan), Rocky Long (San Diego State), Will Muschamp (Florida), Paul Pasqualoni (Connecticut), David Shaw (Stanford), and Don Treadwell (Miami, Oh.). Right on 9 out of 12
24. Liquidate on these teams that will lose at least two more games than they lost last season: Auburn, Central Florida, Iowa State, Miami (Oh.), N.C. State , Nevada, Northern Illinois, and Ohio State. Right on 4 out of 8
25. Buy low and sell high on these teams that will win at least two more games than they won last season: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Georgia, Houston, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Purdue. Right on 5 out of 7
Way too early top 10 for 2012
1. Oregon…This will be Chip Kelly’s best team yet, and they will benefit from all the preseason hype on conference rival USC taking the pressure off them for a change.
2. LSU…If Rueben Randle and Morris Claiborne return this will be the most talented team in the country (provided Zach Mettenberger is a capable quarterback), but that’s a big if. Schedule is much more favorable than this year’s.
3. Oklahoma…With Landry Jones likely returning to school, the Sooners are the clear favorites in the Big 12 and should be motivated after this season’s disappointment.
4. USC…Will re-emerge from NCAA probation in a big way with a soft schedule and 16 returning starters, including Matt Barkley. However, I don’t believe they’ll be good enough on defense yet to beat Oregon twice.
5. Florida State…We keep hearing about the Seminoles being the team of “next year,†but next year better be 2012 with 18 starters returning and a soft ACC schedule (minus a road trip to Blacksburg) looming.
6. Georgia…Loaded everywhere except the offensive line, where Bulldogs have to replace three starters. However, they’re still returning the best quarterback in a SEC that lacks proven playmakers at the sport’s most crucial position.
7. Alabama…On top of the standouts already leaving school, the Tide could also lose 5 other key players like Trent Richardson and Dont’a Hightower, who are expected to leave school early for the NFL. Nick Saban is now recruiting at the level Miami was in the 1980s, Florida State was in the 1990s, and USC was in the 2000s, so they’re going to be good regardless. But replacing all those players and then winning a national title just doesn’t happen.
8. Virginia Tech…Hokies might have the best defense not played in the SEC next season, and quarterback Logan Thomas returns as well. The loss of David Wilson won’t be as big as the loss of four, 5th-year seniors on the offensive line. But another manageable (see that as soft) schedule awaits and Virginia Tech could be favored in every game.
9. West Virginia…Returns 15 starters and one of the best passing games in college football. Should go through the Big East like a knife through butter, but will be tested by a non-conference trip to Florida State.
10. Arkansas…Loses some outstanding talent at wide receiver, but returns virtually everyone else as well as some good depth at running back. Also gets SEC West rivals Alabama and LSU at home this time.
Way too early 2012 Big Ten predictions
LEADERS DIVISION
1. Ohio State (6-2, 10-2)…ineligible for postseason due to NCAA probation
2. Wisconsin (5-4, 8-5)…Insight Bowl
3. Illinois (4-4, 7-5)…Ticket City Bowl
4. Penn State (3-5, 6-6)…Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
5. Purdue (3-5, 6-6)
6. Indiana (0-8, 3-9)
LEGENDS DIVISION
1. Michigan (7-2, 10-3)…Rose Bowl
2. Michigan State (6-2, 9-3)…Capitol One Bowl
3. Nebraska (5-3, 9-3)…Outback Bowl
4. Iowa (4-4, 7-5)…Gator Bowl
5. Northwestern (4-4, 6-6)…Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl
6. Minnesota (2-6, 6-6)
Michigan over Wisconsin in Big Ten Championship Game.
Final Top 25
If I had a vote in the AP Poll this would be my ballot based on how good I think the teams are right now.
1. LSU (13-1)…The Tigers still had the better season and played the better schedule. They soundly beat two non-conference opponents with explosive offenses who also won BCS bowls. They beat Alabama on their own field. They won the best conference in the country. I’m not going to penalize them for losing a game to a team in a revenge match that was almost 50 days after the season concluded.
2. Alabama (12-1)…Put forth a dominant effort in the BCS national championship game, but over the course of the season LSU was the better team that played the better schedule. There is no doubt the Crimson Tide played defense at a historic level statistically this season. However, other than LSU they only played one team all season in the top 60 nationally in scoring offense, and four of Alabama’s opponents were 100th or worst in scoring offense. In addition, until there’s a true tournament I philosophically don’t believe a team that couldn’t win its own conference should win the national championship.
3. Oklahoma State (12-1)…Finished off the best season in school history with a thrilling overtime victory in their first BCS bowl.
4. Oregon (12-2)…Won their first Rose Bowl since 1917, and that could be a springboard to Chip Kelly’s best team yet next season.
5. Stanford (11-2)…The Cardinal is going to take a major hit in player attrition aside from Andrew Luck, so now we’ll really find out how good of a coach David Shaw is.
6. Arkansas (11-2)…Only two losses this season was against the top two teams in the country, and both were on the road.
7. Boise State (12-1)…For the second straight season the Broncos’ national title hopes were dashed by a kicker choking in the clutch.
8. Michigan (11-2)…It didn’t take long for Brady Hoke to right the ship, and the Wolverines won their first BCS bowl in 12 years. For more on my thoughts on this season for Michigan and what it means, click here. Beyond that, I ranked Michigan higher than Wisconsin and Michigan State in my final poll by virtue of having played a tougher schedule and posting more quality wins.
9. Michigan State (11-3)…One year after getting dismantled by a SEC team in a Florida bowl game, Sparty returns to post a thrilling comeback victory over a SEC team that positively changes the perception of the program.
10. South Carolina (11-2)…Posted its first 11-win season in school history despite not finishing the year with its All-American running back and starting quarterback.
11. Wisconsin (11-3)…The Badgers might have played the most unimpressive schedule of any Big Ten champion since the days of the Big 2 and the little 8.
12. Baylor (10-3)…Best season on the Brazos since 1986, which is the last time the Bears won at least 9 games.
13. TCU (11-2)…Pretty good “rebuilding year†when you still win 11 games and an outright conference title.
14. Oklahoma (10-3)…It’s not often a 10-win season is a disappointment, but when you’re the preseason #1 team and you don’t even win your own conference and finish with three losses, in this case it is.
16. Kansas State (10-3)…The Cotton Bowl didn’t turn out well for the Wildcats, but that should do little to dampen an otherwise stellar season.
17. West Virginia (10-3)…Surprising Orange Bowl rout could be a bad omen for Big East foes in 2012, since the Mountaineers return virtually every key piece of their potent offense.
18. Southern Mississippi (12-2)…Perhaps the most overshadowed program in the country, the Golden Eagles are to college football what Xavier is to college basketball: a mid-major program with a solid foundation which any competent young coach can use as a springboard to future success.
19. Houston (13-1)…Case Keenum and the Cougars took full advantage of a Penn State program in total and complete disarray.
20. Georgia (10-4)…Some very questionable timid coaching by Mark Richt down the stretch cost his Bulldogs a bowl win.
21. Clemson (10-4)…Winning its first conference title in 20 years is nothing to sneeze at, but what was that in the Orange Bowl?
22. Virginia Tech (11-3)…Ironic that it was special teams, long Coach Frank Beamer’s trademark, which cost the Hokies the Sugar Bowl.
23. Florida State (9-4)…Finished 4th nationally in scoring defense, and averaged over 31 points per game, so how did Seminoles lose four times?
24. Cincinnati (10-3)…Anybody else notice the Bearcats won more games in year two since Brian Kelly left for Notre Dame, then Notre Dame won in year two with Brian Kelly?
25. Nebraska (9-4)…No way around it, this was a disappointing season for Nebraska and both the defense and Taylor Martinez took a step back.
Honorable Mention:
26. BYU (10-3), 27. Missouri (8-5), 28. Northern Illinois (11-3), 29. Auburn (8-5), 30. Utah (8-5).
Reconciling My Preseason Predictions
How did my preseason projections of how the season would play out on July 25th reconcile with the final poll?
1. Alabama
2. Oklahoma
3. Wisconsin
4. LSU
5. Texas A&M
6. Stanford
7. Florida State
8. Boise State
9. Nebraska
10. Virginia Tech
11. Oregon
12. Notre Dame
13. Oklahoma State
14. Arkansas
15. Michigan State
16. Georgia
17. South Carolina
18. Michigan
19. TCU
20. Arizona State
21. Mississippi State
22. South Florida
23. Florida
24. Missouri
25. Miami, Fla.
Reconciling My Crystal Ball Predictions
Back on July 25th I made 25 predictions for the 2011 season. How many of them actually came true?
1. This will be Joe Paterno’s final season. Right
2. Steve Spurrier will retire at the end of the season. Wrong
3. Urban Meyer will not return to college coaching. Wrong
4. New conference members Nebraska and Boise State will either win their conferences in their first seasons or qualify for their conference championship games. Wrong on both counts
5. Ohio State’s best in the nation streak of six straight BCS bowl appearances will end. Right
6. Since the NCAA won’t be ready to announce the penalties against the Ohio State football program until at least after the first of the year, leaving the program in flux, Luke Fickell will be named the permanent head coach. Wrong
7. Frank Beamer will retire at Virginia Tech, and the school will appoint heralded defensive coordinator Bud Foster his successor. Wrong on this for the second year in a row
8. The streak of national champions from the SEC will end at five. Wrong
9. Brady Hoke will win more games in his first season at Michigan than Rich Rodriguez won in his third and final season in Ann Arbor. Right
10. Michigan will snap its worst ever seven-year losing streak to Ohio State. Right
11. Rich Rodriguez will be the next coach at Clemson. Wrong
12. Stanford’s Andrew Luck will win the Heisman Trophy. Wrong
13. There will be no undefeated teams remaining when the final BCS ratings are released on December 4th. Wrong
14. Texas A&M will make its first BCS bowl appearance since 1998. Wrong
15. ESPN will say goodbye to longtime College Gamedayco-host Lee Corso at the end of the season and replace him with Mark May. TBD
16. Houston’s Case Keenum will return from a knee injury to break Timmy Chang’s NCAA career passing yardage record, as well as Graham Harrell’s NCAA career touchdown passes mark. Right
17. The Big 12 will be the only BCS conference without any coaching changes. Wrong
18. The inaugural Big Ten Championship Game will be the highest-rated televised game of the season, other than the BCS National Championship and the Rose Bowl. Wrong
19. Defending national champion Auburn will lose at least four games. Right
20. The results of the season’s top five non-conference games will be:
LSU over Oregon…The suspension of All-American Cliff Harris means the Ducks will play their biggest game of the season without the best player on defense and special teams. Right
Oklahoma over Florida State…Revenge spot for the Seminoles, who were thrashed last year in Norman, but the Sooners are the overall better team. Right
Georgia over Boise State…This time the Broncos venture east and lose thanks to the loss of several key players who graduated. Wrong
Texas A&M over Arkansas…Hard to believe the Aggies have been waiting since 1991 to get a win in this old SWC rivalry. Wrong
Michigan over Notre Dame…Wolverines lost first night game in Notre Dame Stadium history in 1982, and now it’s the Irish’s turn to return the favor. Right
21. Ohio State, Penn State, and Auburn will start the season ranked in the top 25 but won’t finish there. Right on all three.
22. South Florida, Michigan, and Mississippi State will begin the season outside the top 25 but will finish there. Wrong except for Michigan
23. The following first year coaches will lead their teams to bowl games this season: Steve Addazio (Temple), Bill Blankenship (Tulsa), Dave Doeren (Northern Illinois), Randy Edsall (Maryland), Al Golden (Miami, Fla.), Todd Graham (Pittsburgh), Brady Hoke (Michigan), Rocky Long (San Diego State), Will Muschamp (Florida), Paul Pasqualoni (Connecticut), David Shaw (Stanford), and Don Treadwell (Miami, Oh.). Right on 9 out of 12
24. Liquidate on these teams that will lose at least two more games than they lost last season: Auburn, Central Florida, Iowa State, Miami (Oh.), N.C. State , Nevada, Northern Illinois, and Ohio State. Right on 4 out of 8
25. Buy low and sell high on these teams that will win at least two more games than they won last season: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Georgia, Houston, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Purdue. Right on 5 out of 7
Way too early top 10 for 2012
1. Oregon…This will be Chip Kelly’s best team yet, and they will benefit from all the preseason hype on conference rival USC taking the pressure off them for a change.
2. LSU…If Rueben Randle and Morris Claiborne return this will be the most talented team in the country (provided Zach Mettenberger is a capable quarterback), but that’s a big if. Schedule is much more favorable than this year’s.
3. Oklahoma…With Landry Jones likely returning to school, the Sooners are the clear favorites in the Big 12 and should be motivated after this season’s disappointment.
4. USC…Will re-emerge from NCAA probation in a big way with a soft schedule and 16 returning starters, including Matt Barkley. However, I don’t believe they’ll be good enough on defense yet to beat Oregon twice.
5. Florida State…We keep hearing about the Seminoles being the team of “next year,†but next year better be 2012 with 18 starters returning and a soft ACC schedule (minus a road trip to Blacksburg) looming.
6. Georgia…Loaded everywhere except the offensive line, where Bulldogs have to replace three starters. However, they’re still returning the best quarterback in a SEC that lacks proven playmakers at the sport’s most crucial position.
7. Alabama…On top of the standouts already leaving school, the Tide could also lose 5 other key players like Trent Richardson and Dont’a Hightower, who are expected to leave school early for the NFL. Nick Saban is now recruiting at the level Miami was in the 1980s, Florida State was in the 1990s, and USC was in the 2000s, so they’re going to be good regardless. But replacing all those players and then winning a national title just doesn’t happen.
8. Virginia Tech…Hokies might have the best defense not played in the SEC next season, and quarterback Logan Thomas returns as well. The loss of David Wilson won’t be as big as the loss of four, 5th-year seniors on the offensive line. But another manageable (see that as soft) schedule awaits and Virginia Tech could be favored in every game.
9. West Virginia…Returns 15 starters and one of the best passing games in college football. Should go through the Big East like a knife through butter, but will be tested by a non-conference trip to Florida State.
10. Arkansas…Loses some outstanding talent at wide receiver, but returns virtually everyone else as well as some good depth at running back. Also gets SEC West rivals Alabama and LSU at home this time.
Way too early 2012 Big Ten predictions
LEADERS DIVISION
1. Ohio State (6-2, 10-2)…ineligible for postseason due to NCAA probation
2. Wisconsin (5-4, 8-5)…Insight Bowl
3. Illinois (4-4, 7-5)…Ticket City Bowl
4. Penn State (3-5, 6-6)…Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
5. Purdue (3-5, 6-6)
6. Indiana (0-8, 3-9)
LEGENDS DIVISION
1. Michigan (7-2, 10-3)…Rose Bowl
2. Michigan State (6-2, 9-3)…Capitol One Bowl
3. Nebraska (5-3, 9-3)…Outback Bowl
4. Iowa (4-4, 7-5)…Gator Bowl
5. Northwestern (4-4, 6-6)…Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl
6. Minnesota (2-6, 6-6)
Michigan over Wisconsin in Big Ten Championship Game.
