Don't Panic

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dirtwrap

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After watching Iowa all season and Wisconsin's games against LSU, Michigan and OSU, I have confidence that not only will this be a close game, but that we actually have some tactical advantages. Both teams play very similar styles of play, like we have for a long time, and will undoubtedly be a slug fest.

Wisconsin on offense:

- Corey Clement is a very good back, however, there is not a lot of depth behind him. Especially after that game with OSU I don't see him being able to physically stand up for the entire game. They can only run him so much.
- Hornibrook throws a really good ball and is fairly accurate. However, from what I saw he locks on to his receiver from the beginning of the play and doesn't check out of any plays.
- Hornibrook stands in the pocket tall, his line is pretty solid, so blitzing him like OSU did can lead to big plays. This may be an instance where our philosophy of making him be patient and check underneath for long drives will be to our advantage.
- Fumigali is by far the favorite receiver of Hornibrook. We have to scheme for that because if we take away that option, play safeties over the top, we will force him to make some mistakes. I can see putting Desmond on him a lot.
- Our run defense has been playing much better the past couple of weeks, and we are going to be gifted with a quarterback that isnt going to beat us with his legs. This plays right into our strength.
- Wisconsin doesn't appear to have a quick, slot type guy that has a tendency to kill us as well either. We traditionally handle wideouts because of our zone coverage. They tend to use Fumigali a lot here but he should be a focal point for us.

Iowa on offense:

- Our run blocking has really improved here lately and we may be able to run with some success.
- We cannot get into obvious passing situations, they will put more pressure on us than we have seen yet. Wisconsin's strength is with their linebackers.
- Hopefully we spread them out a lot, and run and pass out of these formations. We have been very successful with three wide receiver sets in both run and pass and will slow down their pass rush.
- Our quarterback has more experience, can read the defense better and will check into and out of plays to our advantage. To me this is huge.

Keys to the game:

- Officiating: this game will probably come down to 1-4 plays that is the difference, and will they call Wisconsin for holding as they did pretty much every play against OSU? Are we going to get that holding penalty that will cost us the game like NDSU and NW? Even though we are home it doesn't seem like we get those calls here.
- Kittle and Myers: will they play? We need Kittle in the worst kind of way.
- Time of possession: especially in the first quarter, who will control the clock? Our defenses are so predicated on running a set number of plays that we need to get the ball, score, get a three and out and drive again. We need long, sustained drives to wear them out. They will try to do the same to us.
- Scoring first: This is imperative, neither team will be effective playing from behind.

My prediction:

I think we get the ball first on offense, come out with intensity and unpredictability, spread them out, stay ahead of the chains and score first. I then think we shut down the run, scheme against the TE on third down, and get the ball back and score again. Then it will be an intense between the tackle brawl from then on out. It will be close, but I think we pull it out.
 
dirtwrap said:
My prediction:

I think we get the ball first on offense, come out with intensity and unpredictability,
Click to expand...

See, you had a nice post going but you got greedy.

You predict unpredictability ??? Is that logically possible ?? Are you trying to break the matrix ?

Also, since Iowa seems to approach every game the same way ( announcers every game: "when we talked to the coaches they said Iowa doesn't do anything to surprise you" ), I think you've got a more specific gameplan here than what the Hawks will have. Some good ideas though.
 
I have been an Iowa fan all of my life and have come to understand the method to the madness of the Ferentz regime:

1. Fundamentals are of the utmost importance. That is why we are slow starters, because we don't scheme early in the season, and may not at all, because we stress base fundamentals in all phases of the game. We are what we are, we don't hide that, and teams early in the season can knock us off if they play to our weaknesses.
2. That is because this coach believes in logic, reasoning and statistics. He feels that if we execute what we want to do, don't turn the ball over and not get penalized, we will have a better than 50% chance to win. This is why he won't play Desmond on offense, because logic says that he is a defensive back, and would only practice the position sparingly and wouldn't be able to catch up to the full time wide receivers. This has a lot of truth in it. We as fans are emotional. Its also why we are so frustrated to watch our team get beat by a team we feel we should beat and we don't do anything different.
3. Which leads us to make deductions and analyze that are off-based. How many times do you see a team come out in the out of conference schedule and blow teams out only to get wrecked in conference? Or see a team blow somebody out by 50, only to lose the next week to the team that lost to the team they beat by 50? While we certainly can only play one game at a time, the coaches are looking at the improvement over the course of the season to get themselves in a position to be there at the end, "when things count in October and November".
4. And Ferentz does not care at all about margin of victory. He actually cares about respecting his opponents (take Purdue for instance, we wanted Hazell to keep his job much like we should have wanted Brady Hoke to keep his job because if they don't, there is a new wildcard) unlike some coaches (Harbaugh) and this will come back to bite him. Ferentz also has a much different philosophy about wins and losses, much like the NFL, where you try to win them all but if you lose you just improve and nothing is done. In the current state of college football, we feel our team is done if they lose once. We may be out of the national title chase, but we still have much to play for.

So where does my comment about "unpredictability" come from? Because in certain situations, Ferentz knows at this point in the season that our fundamental base scheme is not going to be good enough to give us a better than 50% advantage to win. Think about the Ohio State game a few years ago when we should have gotten blown out but we did a great job game planning to put ourselves in a position to keep it close. We didn't win, but we were in the game. Also, this game for all practical purposes is for our season. We can stand to lose to Michigan, but we cannot go down a tie breaker to Wisconsin and the Nebraska game will have no guess work with the ramifications. I think because of all of this, we will have a game plan created to exploit Wisconsin's weaknesses. I think especially early in the game we are going to look different, three wide sets on first down, screens to Wadley and slants to McCarron, uptempo, etc. The goal I am thinking will be to catch them off guard, use the crowd to our advantage, get a 2 score lead and then settle back into base and make Hornibrook beat us with his arm. If I were betting, I would bet against Hornibrook being able to consistently make wise decisions as a redshirt freshman.
 
dirtwrap said:
You asked a question, you deserved an answer right? LOL
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Yeah, but this is my 100th post on HN and your 2 here probably have more words than all of mine.

Well stated!

Oh, except in the last paragraph where you say "the goal is to get a 2 score lead". It's a strange combination of obvious (get a lead) and overly specific (why have an upper limit to the goal?).

And, your second post didn't answer how you could logically "predict unpredictability ". Unless you covered that in one of the middle chapters, which I admittedly only skimmed.

( end wordcount boosting )
 
Ferentz goes into conservative mode offensively with a 2 score lead. We may score more, but usually that is due to defensive or special teams touchdowns. Their goal is to shorten the game, limit the number of plays on both sides of the ball and keep everything in front of them.

To predict unpredictabilty is just a guess of course, but I am basing that on the fact that Ferentz knows that we do not have a tactical advantage with our base offensive scheme. It seems obvious to me that we just can't line up against OSU, Michigan and Wisconsin and telegraph what we are doing with success. We can with other teams, but not them, they are too talented and strong. So to gain a tactical advantage we have to negate their advantage, disguise our run/pass with throwing out of running sets and running out of passing sets, and not let them pin their ears back. As Hawk fans watching the games, I am sure most of us can tell you with a reasonable accuracy what play we are going to run depending on our formation, so that means the other team knows exactly what we are doing. Like I said though, its just a guess.
 
I was only referring to the catch-22. Anything you correctly predict is clearly not, by definition, unpredictable. So you can't "predict unpredictability".

As for your last suggestion that KF would change things up just because the normal stuff might not / doesn't / has never really worked?

I can't decide on a "Final Answer", so please choose a reply from these:
1) If only that was true !
2) I don't agree
3) ( guffaw ) Good one !
 
Love the optimism. My only issue was the comment about the officiating costing us the NW and NDSU games. The outcome of those two games shouldn't have come down to a couple of flags. We played poorly those games and lost, because of the effort/performance; not because of two bad penalties.
 
kicker22 said:
Love the optimism. My only issue was the comment about the officiating costing us the NW and NDSU games. The outcome of those two games shouldn't have come down to a couple of flags. We played poorly those games and lost, because of the effort/performance; not because of two bad penalties.
Click to expand...

Actually it was a combination of all of those things. If we would have performed better, it wouldn't have come down to one call costing us. But if that one bad call didn't happen, we win despite our poor performance. I won't even get into how hard it is to perform well when they are holding so often with zero calls.

Players and coaches need to blame their play because it is the only thing they can control. As a fan, I can't control anything so I can blame every contributing factor. The refs sucked and it cost us sneaking out with a win after a poor performance.
 
PCHawk said:
Actually it was a combination of all of those things. If we would have performed better, it wouldn't have come down to one call costing us. But if that one bad call didn't happen, we win despite our poor performance. I won't even get into how hard it is to perform well when they are holding so often with zero calls.

Players and coaches need to blame their play because it is the only thing they can control. As a fan, I can't control anything so I can blame every contributing factor. The refs sucked and it cost us sneaking out with a win after a poor performance.
Click to expand...

Totally understand where you're coming from, but I'm one of those that firmly believe regardless of how close/tight a game is, one call will never determine the outcome of a game.
 
kicker22 said:
Totally understand where you're coming from, but I'm one of those that firmly believe regardless of how close/tight a game is, one call will never determine the outcome of a game.
Click to expand...

What about the hail mary play a few weeks ago that shouldn't have happened?
 
Last year Beathard was the X factor. He made so many plays, picked up first downs extended plays and extended possessions. This year, can you name an impact he has had? I'll hang up and listen
 
dirtwrap said:
After watching Iowa all season and Wisconsin's games against LSU, Michigan and OSU, I have confidence that not only will this be a close game, but that we actually have some tactical advantages. Both teams play very similar styles of play, like we have for a long time, and will undoubtedly be a slug fest.

Wisconsin on offense:

- Corey Clement is a very good back, however, there is not a lot of depth behind him. Especially after that game with OSU I don't see him being able to physically stand up for the entire game. They can only run him so much.
- Hornibrook throws a really good ball and is fairly accurate. However, from what I saw he locks on to his receiver from the beginning of the play and doesn't check out of any plays.
- Hornibrook stands in the pocket tall, his line is pretty solid, so blitzing him like OSU did can lead to big plays. This may be an instance where our philosophy of making him be patient and check underneath for long drives will be to our advantage.
- Fumigali is by far the favorite receiver of Hornibrook. We have to scheme for that because if we take away that option, play safeties over the top, we will force him to make some mistakes. I can see putting Desmond on him a lot.
- Our run defense has been playing much better the past couple of weeks, and we are going to be gifted with a quarterback that isnt going to beat us with his legs. This plays right into our strength.
- Wisconsin doesn't appear to have a quick, slot type guy that has a tendency to kill us as well either. We traditionally handle wideouts because of our zone coverage. They tend to use Fumigali a lot here but he should be a focal point for us.

Iowa on offense:

- Our run blocking has really improved here lately and we may be able to run with some success.
- We cannot get into obvious passing situations, they will put more pressure on us than we have seen yet. Wisconsin's strength is with their linebackers.
- Hopefully we spread them out a lot, and run and pass out of these formations. We have been very successful with three wide receiver sets in both run and pass and will slow down their pass rush.
- Our quarterback has more experience, can read the defense better and will check into and out of plays to our advantage. To me this is huge.

Keys to the game:

- Officiating: this game will probably come down to 1-4 plays that is the difference, and will they call Wisconsin for holding as they did pretty much every play against OSU? Are we going to get that holding penalty that will cost us the game like NDSU and NW? Even though we are home it doesn't seem like we get those calls here.
- Kittle and Myers: will they play? We need Kittle in the worst kind of way.
- Time of possession: especially in the first quarter, who will control the clock? Our defenses are so predicated on running a set number of plays that we need to get the ball, score, get a three and out and drive again. We need long, sustained drives to wear them out. They will try to do the same to us.
- Scoring first: This is imperative, neither team will be effective playing from behind.

My prediction:

I think we get the ball first on offense, come out with intensity and unpredictability, spread them out, stay ahead of the chains and score first. I then think we shut down the run, scheme against the TE on third down, and get the ball back and score again. Then it will be an intense between the tackle brawl from then on out. It will be close, but I think we pull it out.
Click to expand...

I like it. Nice take.
 
dirtwrap said:
After watching Iowa all season and Wisconsin's games against LSU, Michigan and OSU, I have confidence that not only will this be a close game, but that we actually have some tactical advantages. Both teams play very similar styles of play, like we have for a long time, and will undoubtedly be a slug fest.

Wisconsin on offense:

- Corey Clement is a very good back, however, there is not a lot of depth behind him. Especially after that game with OSU I don't see him being able to physically stand up for the entire game. They can only run him so much.
- Hornibrook throws a really good ball and is fairly accurate. However, from what I saw he locks on to his receiver from the beginning of the play and doesn't check out of any plays.
- Hornibrook stands in the pocket tall, his line is pretty solid, so blitzing him like OSU did can lead to big plays. This may be an instance where our philosophy of making him be patient and check underneath for long drives will be to our advantage.
- Fumigali is by far the favorite receiver of Hornibrook. We have to scheme for that because if we take away that option, play safeties over the top, we will force him to make some mistakes. I can see putting Desmond on him a lot.
- Our run defense has been playing much better the past couple of weeks, and we are going to be gifted with a quarterback that isnt going to beat us with his legs. This plays right into our strength.
- Wisconsin doesn't appear to have a quick, slot type guy that has a tendency to kill us as well either. We traditionally handle wideouts because of our zone coverage. They tend to use Fumigali a lot here but he should be a focal point for us.

Iowa on offense:

- Our run blocking has really improved here lately and we may be able to run with some success.
- We cannot get into obvious passing situations, they will put more pressure on us than we have seen yet. Wisconsin's strength is with their linebackers.
- Hopefully we spread them out a lot, and run and pass out of these formations. We have been very successful with three wide receiver sets in both run and pass and will slow down their pass rush.
- Our quarterback has more experience, can read the defense better and will check into and out of plays to our advantage. To me this is huge.

Keys to the game:

- Officiating: this game will probably come down to 1-4 plays that is the difference, and will they call Wisconsin for holding as they did pretty much every play against OSU? Are we going to get that holding penalty that will cost us the game like NDSU and NW? Even though we are home it doesn't seem like we get those calls here.
- Kittle and Myers: will they play? We need Kittle in the worst kind of way.
- Time of possession: especially in the first quarter, who will control the clock? Our defenses are so predicated on running a set number of plays that we need to get the ball, score, get a three and out and drive again. We need long, sustained drives to wear them out. They will try to do the same to us.
- Scoring first: This is imperative, neither team will be effective playing from behind.

My prediction:

I think we get the ball first on offense, come out with intensity and unpredictability, spread them out, stay ahead of the chains and score first. I then think we shut down the run, scheme against the TE on third down, and get the ball back and score again. Then it will be an intense between the tackle brawl from then on out. It will be close, but I think we pull it out.
Click to expand...

I thought the same thing as you, including when Wisky gave up the lead. Then I didn't see it.
 
PCHawk said:
What about the hail mary play a few weeks ago that shouldn't have happened?
Click to expand...

Was this intended for me? My comment was in response to officiating, but at the same time there's always going to be huge plays during the course of a game. A game may be won or lost on that single play, but I don't think that play alone is viewed under a microscope as the only play that mattered that game. I'm not saying some plays aren't more detrimental then others, but a lot of little things can happen during a 60 minute game. Rather than a successful play or a missed call I think there are numerous things that can influence a game just as much.
 
I think there is a lot of truth in the fact that one play doesn't win or lose a game because a team should be good enough to overcome a bad call, a bad play, turnover, etc. That is if you are defining a team based on how good they are. However, we are talking wins and losses here. And one play can and does totally affect the outcome of the game, but also the entire landscape of college football.

For instance, the NDSU kicker hit his field goal. NC State did not. So we lose and Clemson wins. Clemson is not any better whether they won or lost the game, it was just circumstance. We aren't either. The cold reality is that we are good enough to overcome mistakes, bad calls, bad luck, anything. Nobody is, although a few teams like Alabama have a larger margin. It for a team to go undefeated or have a special season those things will always eventually go their way. Last year they did for us and this year they didn't. Some are self inflicted and some are not.

What I am saying is that on Saturday neither team is so dominant that they can overcome anything bad and win. I just hope it is not the officials because they can control it whenever they want.
 
NCHawker said:
Last year Beathard was the X factor. He made so many plays, picked up first downs extended plays and extended possessions. This year, can you name an impact he has had? I'll hang up and listen
Click to expand...


NC all I hear are crickets, nope, can't think of 1...
 
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