Do you think Jon is po-boying us on the podcast?

CJHawkeye

CJHawkeye

Well-Known Member
I've listened to the podcast for a few years now without missing a single episode. I come to the forum less frequently but more so when football and basketball season are just starting.

Jon seems intent on sticking with his 6-6 prediction. I'll say at first that I don't think that's a "whachu smokin?" prediction at all. But it does feel more on the low end. I would say 6-8 wins would be my range. Barring something catastrophic I don't think 5 wins is on the table so 6 is my floor.

I know there are a lot of question marks. Apparently the QB situation is a real situation and not coach speak or motivational psychology and WR will still be a big question. But our O line should be good, our D backs should be good, our D line sounds like it is going to be extremely good, and RB should be better than good.

So yeah, QB and WR are not great places to have big questions but I'm just starting to question if Jon is maybe kind of managing his flock a bit here. Am I way off base?
 
CJHawkeye said:
I've listened to the podcast for a few years now without missing a single episode. I come to the forum less frequently but more so when football and basketball season are just starting.

Jon seems intent on sticking with his 6-6 prediction. I'll say at first that I don't think that's a "whachu smokin?" prediction at all. But it does feel more on the low end. I would say 6-8 wins would be my range. Barring something catastrophic I don't think 5 wins is on the table so 6 is my floor.

I know there are a lot of question marks. Apparently the QB situation is a real situation and not coach speak or motivational psychology and WR will still be a big question. But our O line should be good, our D backs should be good, our D line sounds like it is going to be extremely good, and RB should be better than good.

So yeah, QB and WR are not great places to have big questions but I'm just starting to question if Jon is maybe kind of managing his flock a bit here. Am I way off base?
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I dunno I'm no more of a mind reader than the next guy. But the closer we get to kickoff the things that seem to be evident to me are this.
Iowa will have arguably the best combination of offensive and defensive lines/front 7s they've ever had at the same time. Now the skill guys and DBs have some question marks and how they do (QB most obviously) will be the biggest marker as to how they end up... Heck if I know how they outta do but if you want to have a couple of building blocks for a team I'd say having the best lines in the league or darn close to it sure won't hurt.
 
I think Jon is still recovering from his 12-0 prediction for the 2010 team, and has vowed, whether consciously or subconsciously, not to go that far out on the proverbial limb again. A year of being forced to cheer exclusively for Iowa State would cure him of any residuals of that failed forecast.
 
I think Jon is taking the position of...."I made a prediction and, dammit, I'm sticking to it!" :) He always gets after Deace, for example, for filling out multiple march madness brackets.

On the team as a whole, this is what I know....

1. We have the deepest and most talented offensive line, man 1-8, than we've had since 2002.
2. We have the most talented backfield tandem than we've had since probably 2002 (Russell and Lewis). One could maybe argue Young and Sims in 2007, but I think this tandem is better.
3. We have maybe the most athletic DL since probably 2010 and before that, probably 2004.
4. The LB crew, as a whole, is probably the 3rd most talented in KFs tenure behind the Hodge/Greenway/Miles threesome of 2004 and the Morris/Kirskey/Hitchens threesome of 2013.
5. While unproven, we have the deepest, most athletic group of TEs as a whole in KFs tenure.
6. The QB, receivers, and DBs are unproven at this point.

But we've been successful with the above formula before. I'm going with 9 wins.
 
JMO, but the whole 6 wins (or even 7 wins) seems like an insult to the new coaches and current players. I know I know - "But it's the toughest schedule in history" - not buyin it. Welp, I guess we'll find out who was right and who was wrong over the next few months.
 
homes said:
I think Jon is still recovering from his 12-0 prediction for the 2010 team, and has vowed, whether consciously or subconsciously, not to go that far out on the proverbial limb again. A year of being forced to cheer exclusively for Iowa State would cure him of any residuals of that failed forecast.
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In Jon's defense he was only 5 years early with that prediction.
 
Jon's been burnt in the past so seems he's going conservative. Better to come back with a positive write up at the end of the season citing overachieving than negative one about missed opportunities. Human nature, protecting himself. He bleeds black and gold like most of us.
 
I think he's trying not to stoke the "hype flames" on the season, much as he has been doing with AJ Ep. The fact is the most important position (arguably) is also our least proven position. I think he's concerned, like many of us, that Stanley hasn't separated himself more as the #1, or vice versa.
I think there are 3 for sure losses on this schedule (OSU, Wiscy, Penn State) along with a few that could go either way (Nebby, ISU, NW, MSU). To me, even if we go 2-2 with the either/or 4 games, we're looking at 7-5 high end. I do think we get ISU.
 
I'm not sure how we can expect the DL to be one of the best we've had, in conjunction with the OL. Ballard, Clayborn, Klug and Daniels were all NFL'ers. Our DT's are thin and inexperienced. While Lattimore has promise, he's inexperienced. Our depth isn't good. Bazata is good, but he isn't dominant, or hasn't been, and is coming off injury. While our db's "should be good" we have a lot of inexperience there, as well. Michael OJ shows promise; but limited experience. JJ has been good but mostly as a nickel. Manny looks the part and had a good UM game; but he also got burnt deep a couple of times and will miss the 1st game for team rules violations. Brand new guy at FS. We've spent entire seasons under ferentz struggling on offense when we've had an experienced qb and wr's. Now that we lack experience at both positions; I'm not willing to take the leap that both positions will flourish. Six wins will be a good season. And yes, we have the toughest schedule we've had in some time.
 
If this team had last year's schedule, I would pick them 8-4/9-3. They do not have last year's schedule. They have a much harder schedule.

Road: Wisconsin, ISU, Nebraska, MSU, NW
Home: OSU, PSU

Those games right there will be rock fights at worst...if Iowa can go 3-4 in those games, I would take that right now sight unseen..and they would have an 8-4/9-3 ceiling. But with unproven QB/WR combo, it concerns me a good deal...I am feeling better about DL as we approach the season....I still feel the highest probability right now is 6-6/7-5. So that being the case, I don't see a reason to change a prediction based on 'talk' from preseason camp...and I hope I will be wrong.
 
JonDMiller said:
If this team had last year's schedule, I would pick them 8-4/9-3. They do not have last year's schedule. They have a much harder schedule.

Road: Wisconsin, ISU, Nebraska, MSU, NW
Home: OSU, PSU

Those games right there will be rock fights at worst...if Iowa can go 3-4 in those games, I would take that right now sight unseen..and they would have an 8-4/9-3 ceiling. But with unproven QB/WR combo, it concerns me a good deal...I am feeling better about DL as we approach the season....I still feel the highest probability right now is 6-6/7-5. So that being the case, I don't see a reason to change a prediction based on 'talk' from preseason camp...and I hope I will be wrong.
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Can't disagree with anything you've said. Except to point out a couple of examples:

1. In 2003 we had an unproven and inexperienced QB and huge question marks at receiver. Then Mo Brown got injured so we basically had Ramon Ochoa, a freshman Calvin Davis and FB Edgar Cervantes (who ended up being our 3rd leading pass catcher that year). But we had great RBs, a great OL, and a damn good defense. We also had a killer schedule with a non-con against a Top 25 ASU team, roadies at OSU, Wisky, MSU, and Purdue. We finished with 9 wins.

2. In 2013, we had an unproven and inexperienced QB, and huge question marks at receiver, with KMM the only proven receiver. Not only that, but we didn't have much to speak of in the RB area either with basically Mark Weismann and a few unproven guys in Bullock and Canzeri. But we had a pretty salty OL, pretty decent TEs, and a great set of LBs. We also had a pretty tough schedule as well with roadies at OSU and at Nebraska with home games against Wisky and Michigan. We finished with 8 wins.

Sure, it could turn into 2007 instead, but the big difference there is OL play...we are light years better on the OL than the 2007 team.

I'm pretty excited to see how things turn out!
 
I think the 2003 defense was much, much better than what we're looking at for 2017. We have some unknown with the DT, and secondary. The big10 and college football were different 14 years ago too. We played teams that didn't quite go crazy with the spread offenses. OSU and PSU are probably going to score, and score often. Do we have the offense to keep up? I don't see either of those teams using the Michigan gameplan from last year

We're probably going to see KF ball at it's worst (or best, if you're into his style). Obviously with our strength being run game, we'll lean on that. But I'm not confident at all with our QB and WR, and neither will opposing defenses.

I do think we are a 6-8 win team depending on turnovers / bounce of the ball.

One thing to mention too is our punter, do we know much about him? For KF teams, the punter needs to flip the field for us to be successful.

We'll know more in 8 days!
 
6-6 shouldn't happen unless we have some bad injury problems or the QB production is just terrible. Running game, linebackers, OL, DL, TE's should all be areas of strength. Have to believe one or two more WR will step up. Parker usually gets the secondary in order, and his comments on the DL are very intriguing. I will be very disappointed with 7-5 or less.
 
These would be my most critical areas in which to have strength...for a good season...

Defensive Line -

Offensive Line -

Quarterback -

Tight ends -

Special teams -

Running backs -

Linebackers -

Secondary -

Wide receivers -

Will the wide receivers be able to get open? Perhaps a more important question would be...are the wide receivers willing to pay the price for blocking...which is their most important role under KF ball...

Will a quarterback break out to become a star?

Will the offensive line be more than a pre-season paper tiger?

Note - rankings above refer to KF style football...not other systems...

I would like to hope that Iowa can surprise and dump some :"better" teams this year, given their strengths? OSU? Wisconsin, Nebraska?
 
TulipCityHawk said:
I think he's trying not to stoke the "hype flames" on the season, much as he has been doing with AJ Ep. The fact is the most important position (arguably) is also our least proven position. I think he's concerned, like many of us, that Stanley hasn't separated himself more as the #1, or vice versa.
I think there are 3 for sure losses on this schedule (OSU, Wiscy, Penn State) along with a few that could go either way (Nebby, ISU, NW, MSU). To me, even if we go 2-2 with the either/or 4 games, we're looking at 7-5 high end. I do think we get ISU.
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Glass half empty looker I see.. I think we'll put up a fight against everyone we play due to the strength of the lines on both sides. I think catching PSU right out of the gates in the BIG might be as good of a time to get them as there is. Remember the taste in the returning players mouths from last years meeting? They have some payback in mind and I'm just not going to assume we go down so easily against them. Wisky is always a dog fight and I'm not calling that a for sure loss even if the rest of the college football landscape is calling them a top 10 team right now I just don't buy it. OSU I have less of an argument against. They've owned us. They'll be good. It'd take a magical night where everything would have to go right for us to be in it let alone win. So I'm not putting Mayweather money down on it...
 
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