beaverdaleguy
Well-Known Member
Penn State (3-1) at Iowa (3-1) Oct. 2, 8:05, ESPN
Here’s The Deal … Yes, you’re going to be watching Florida - Alabama, and you should have a second TV handy to watch Stanford – Oregon, but Penn State – Iowa is always worth the effort. Iowa has owned the Nittany Lions lately, winning seven of the last eight games including a 6-4 shootout in 2004 (which then-Hawkeye quarterback Drew Tate called “the worst and weirdest game he has ever played in or watchedâ€), a 24-23 classic in Iowa City in 2008, which ruined Penn State’s national title shot, and last year’s brutal-hitting 21-10 statement. It might be 8-of-9 unless the Nittany Lions are appreciably better than they’ve been over the first month. With a spotty running game, mediocre passing attack, and problems with turnovers, this isn’t Joe Paterno’s best team, but everything can change in a hurry if it can come away with the upset. With a win, and with Illinois and Minnesota to follow, a 3-0 Big Ten start is almost a lock before dealing with Michigan in Happy Valley. However, it’ll take a superior defensive effort and a night-and-day better performance from an offense that had a nightmare of a time putting away Temple. Iowa rebounded from the loss to Arizona with a 45-0 pasting of Ball State, and while the home schedule might not have been that great so far, the combined score of 117 to 14 is still impressive. With two weeks off to prepare for a trip to Michigan, and with Wisconsin to follow, this is when Iowa can make its big push in the title chase.
Why Penn State Might Win: How did Iowa lose to Arizona? Wildcat QB Nick Foles was deadly accurate and almost mistake free, but Penn State QB Robert Bolden isn’t going to complete 28-of-39 passes for 303 yards and two touchdowns, so that’s out. The biggest key was the way the Arizona offensive line held its own, and then some, against the Iowa defensive line, and while the Hawkeyes came up with two sacks and six tackles for loss, it wasn’t the front four’s best performance. Penn State’s offensive line hasn’t been anything special for the running game, and it hasn’t been consistent, but it has been fantastic in pass protection allowing just one sack so far. Against Alabama, Penn State allowed just one tackle for loss and no sacks, while doing a decent job for the ground game paving the way for 127 yards. Penn State won’t win the battle up front, but it needs to hold its own and play to a standstill while hoping the defense will keep the score low because …
Why Iowa Might Win: … Penn State’s offense is going to get eaten alive. Bolden hasn’t been bad, and even though he’s a true freshman, he’s not the problem. The offense simply isn’t clicking and it’s not coming up with the big play needed to take over games and it can’t score. The red zone offense has been horrendous, while the inability to click on enough deep balls is allowing defenses to pounce all over Evan Royster and the ground game. Even if Iowa’s offense is playing well, this is likely going to be a relatively tight defensive battle, and it could come down to who screws up the most. Iowa is +4 on the year in turnover margin, while Penn State is 80th in the nation in turnover margin. One of Penn State’s biggest plusses so far has been a lack of penalties, committing a mere 11 so far, but Iowa isn’t shooting itself in the foot with just 20 on the year. In other words, Penn State probably isn’t going to get the breaks on the road that it needs.
What To Watch Out For: Robert Bolden’s first road game as the starting quarterback? Alabama. The second? Iowa. He has made his share of true freshman mistakes, but for the most part he has been able to keep his poise throwing for over 200 yards in each of the three wins, and predictably struggling against Alabama. Against Iowa, he can’t make mistakes and he has to prove right away that he can hit on a few downfield throws just to show that he can. However, it’s not like Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi has done anything special in the last two games in the series and Iowa came out just fine. Stanzi completed just 11-of-26 passes for 135 yards with two interceptions in 2008, and he completed 15-of-25 passes for 171 yards with a touchdown and an interception in last year’s win. So far this season, Stanzi has been tremendous throwing for over 200 yards in each of the four games with nine touchdown passes and just one interception.
What Will Happen: If Iowa plays up to its capabilities, it should be able to win in a walk. Penn State doesn’t have the offensive punch to do much against a frothing-at-the-mouth Hawkeye defense, but the Nittany Lion D should be just stout enough to keep the score from getting out of hand. This won’t necessarily be when Penn State gets exposed, but it’s going to have a tough time putting points on the board and won’t have any ability to mount a comeback.
Here’s The Deal … Yes, you’re going to be watching Florida - Alabama, and you should have a second TV handy to watch Stanford – Oregon, but Penn State – Iowa is always worth the effort. Iowa has owned the Nittany Lions lately, winning seven of the last eight games including a 6-4 shootout in 2004 (which then-Hawkeye quarterback Drew Tate called “the worst and weirdest game he has ever played in or watchedâ€), a 24-23 classic in Iowa City in 2008, which ruined Penn State’s national title shot, and last year’s brutal-hitting 21-10 statement. It might be 8-of-9 unless the Nittany Lions are appreciably better than they’ve been over the first month. With a spotty running game, mediocre passing attack, and problems with turnovers, this isn’t Joe Paterno’s best team, but everything can change in a hurry if it can come away with the upset. With a win, and with Illinois and Minnesota to follow, a 3-0 Big Ten start is almost a lock before dealing with Michigan in Happy Valley. However, it’ll take a superior defensive effort and a night-and-day better performance from an offense that had a nightmare of a time putting away Temple. Iowa rebounded from the loss to Arizona with a 45-0 pasting of Ball State, and while the home schedule might not have been that great so far, the combined score of 117 to 14 is still impressive. With two weeks off to prepare for a trip to Michigan, and with Wisconsin to follow, this is when Iowa can make its big push in the title chase.
Why Penn State Might Win: How did Iowa lose to Arizona? Wildcat QB Nick Foles was deadly accurate and almost mistake free, but Penn State QB Robert Bolden isn’t going to complete 28-of-39 passes for 303 yards and two touchdowns, so that’s out. The biggest key was the way the Arizona offensive line held its own, and then some, against the Iowa defensive line, and while the Hawkeyes came up with two sacks and six tackles for loss, it wasn’t the front four’s best performance. Penn State’s offensive line hasn’t been anything special for the running game, and it hasn’t been consistent, but it has been fantastic in pass protection allowing just one sack so far. Against Alabama, Penn State allowed just one tackle for loss and no sacks, while doing a decent job for the ground game paving the way for 127 yards. Penn State won’t win the battle up front, but it needs to hold its own and play to a standstill while hoping the defense will keep the score low because …
Why Iowa Might Win: … Penn State’s offense is going to get eaten alive. Bolden hasn’t been bad, and even though he’s a true freshman, he’s not the problem. The offense simply isn’t clicking and it’s not coming up with the big play needed to take over games and it can’t score. The red zone offense has been horrendous, while the inability to click on enough deep balls is allowing defenses to pounce all over Evan Royster and the ground game. Even if Iowa’s offense is playing well, this is likely going to be a relatively tight defensive battle, and it could come down to who screws up the most. Iowa is +4 on the year in turnover margin, while Penn State is 80th in the nation in turnover margin. One of Penn State’s biggest plusses so far has been a lack of penalties, committing a mere 11 so far, but Iowa isn’t shooting itself in the foot with just 20 on the year. In other words, Penn State probably isn’t going to get the breaks on the road that it needs.
What To Watch Out For: Robert Bolden’s first road game as the starting quarterback? Alabama. The second? Iowa. He has made his share of true freshman mistakes, but for the most part he has been able to keep his poise throwing for over 200 yards in each of the three wins, and predictably struggling against Alabama. Against Iowa, he can’t make mistakes and he has to prove right away that he can hit on a few downfield throws just to show that he can. However, it’s not like Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi has done anything special in the last two games in the series and Iowa came out just fine. Stanzi completed just 11-of-26 passes for 135 yards with two interceptions in 2008, and he completed 15-of-25 passes for 171 yards with a touchdown and an interception in last year’s win. So far this season, Stanzi has been tremendous throwing for over 200 yards in each of the four games with nine touchdown passes and just one interception.
What Will Happen: If Iowa plays up to its capabilities, it should be able to win in a walk. Penn State doesn’t have the offensive punch to do much against a frothing-at-the-mouth Hawkeye defense, but the Nittany Lion D should be just stout enough to keep the score from getting out of hand. This won’t necessarily be when Penn State gets exposed, but it’s going to have a tough time putting points on the board and won’t have any ability to mount a comeback.
