CBS mailbag - how will the Hawks do?

HawkeyeHypnosis

HawkeyeHypnosis

Well-Known Member
Mailbag: Selection committee talk; Iowa's prospects & more - CBSSports.com

Here's the part on Iowas season:

How do u think the Iowa Hawkeyes will do this season? Is it another 7-5 season, make a bowl & lose the bowl game kinda season?

I like QB James Vandenberg. You have to be impressed any time a first-year starter in a big conference has anything like a 25-7 TD-INT ratio as he did in 2011. He's got a lot of talent for new OC Greg Davis to build around. Expect his completion percentage (under 59 percent last season) to go up quite a bit under Davis and with the added experience. They are going to miss WR Marvin McNutt, but Vandenberg has a bunch of capable targets still around. Imposing TE C.J. Fiedorowicz could be a star. It's the running game you have to worry about especially in that league. They also have to replace a lot of solid players on the defense. That D-line needs to be overhauled.

Iowa's been good but not outstanding for most of the past seven years with only one double-digit win season (2009's 11-2 record). I don't think they have enough experience or the ground attack to be as good as they were in '09, but I do think they may be getting underrated a bit.

They have a tricky opener against a solid NIU team in Chicago and host ISU in Week 2, but there is a real good chance for the Hawkeyes to be 5-0 by the middle of October when things heat up with a trip to Michigan State. You'd think that by that point it would've given the young D some time to jell. Also, after that MSU game, it looks pretty manageable for the Hawkeyes. They do have to go to Michigan late, but the other two road games are at Northwestern and at Indiana. They also don't have to play Wisconsin or Ohio State. My hunch is, as long they can get a decent running game (not necessarily a very good ground attack but at least respectable), they'll be 8-2 going to Ann Arbor (with the finale being home to Nebraska).
 
If we could beat Nebby to finish 9-3, I would consider the season a great success. Unfortunately I think we're looking at anywhere from 5-7 to 7-5.
 
Eh , a pretty good assessment and seems to be more optimistic than most fans are of the upcoming season.
 
He didn't say anything about the OL but, considering this is Iowa we are talking about, history tells me that we will have a respectable ground attack. I look to see Rogers in the power package and at least one of the committee will step up and give us some sort of break away game.

The receiving corps will have the benefit of a relatively easy early schedule and if JVB improves by even 10% then we will be competitive in the air game.

I think the strength of team is going to be the defensive backfield. I would like to see a little more depth at LB but they look capable. There should be little if any fall off at corner.

The DL is the big question. This year's incarnation looked better relatively speaking when compared to the OL then last year's during the Spring practice. If the OL is about the same or better then last year's then the DL won't totally suck. If the OL is not up to last year's standard then it's going to be a long season.
 
Sounded like a pretty reasonable assessment of the Hawks. I'm expecting another 7-5 season and I wouldn't be disappointed with that.
 
That's what I expect. We have a very young, yet talented team. Our only glarin weaknesses are D-Line and our running game. However, there is a lot of young talent at both spots, and, like the writer said, our schedule sets up well to be 5-0, right when our younger guys should be coming around. I think we finish 8-4 with a lot of optimism looking towards the 2013 season.
 
Although I hope for more wins my prediction is 5-7 to 6-6 is most likely.

Way too many gaps in experience in the two deeps, unknowns and key graduation losses. The is the first go around for the new staff shake-ups as well. All this spells trouble this year. We will likely be much improved by the end of the season and will upset Nebby. I look for us to stumble out of the gates though resulting in a 5-7 or 6-6 campaign.

A perceived soft schedule is always misleading and counts for little unless u r returning a bonafide set of two deeps.
 
SpecialKHawk said:
Although I hope for more wins my prediction is 5-7 to 6-6 is most likely.

Way too many gaps in experience in the two deeps, unknowns and key graduation losses. The is the first go around for the new staff shake-ups as well. All this spells trouble this year. We will likely be much improved by the end of the season and will upset Nebby. I look for us to stumble out of the gates though resulting in a 5-7 or 6-6 campaign.

A perceived soft schedule is always misleading and counts for little unless u r returning a bonafide set of two deeps.
Click to expand...

I can not see 5-7, no matter how drunk I get. Our schedule sets up way too easy to lose seven games. Our offense will carry us more than people think, and I like what I see in our LB and DB units on defense.. The ONLY way we drop to five wins or less is if the injury bug bites hard.
 
Hawkfromnorwalk said:
I can not see 5-7, no matter how drunk I get. Our schedule sets up way too easy to lose seven games. Our offense will carry us more than people think, and I like what I see in our LB and DB units on defense.. The ONLY way we drop to five wins or less is if the injury bug bites hard.
Click to expand...

I hope you are right about the offense....

Here's a few items to consider
1. Lost our best WR -> drafted and made countless big plays (record setter)
2. Lost our best Offensive Lineman -> first round pick
3. Lost our top RB -> transfer out (1400 + yds from scrimmage)
4. Retained our top quality QB - no proven back-up if he goes down even for a game
5. New Coordinator running a moderation of familiar scheme -> X Factor

On the defensive side of the ball I believe we would have a potential Top 20 defense worthy of carrying this year's team to a better record if we were returning an experienced and healthy D-Line. Although I like the young talent, it is way too much to expect results from freshman and red-shirt freshman in the trenches in major college football. When you can't stop anyone one up front in the trenches it negates any talent you have in the LB's and secondary. In addition, James morris has to show me much, much more than he has the first two years at LB as well (he may but it remains to be seen). The defense was one of the worst statisically in the KF era last season it included three NFL drafted players and another quality 5th year Sr. d-lineman. New position coaches and coordinators as well.

Again I see a lot of trouble this season. If JB goes down, we will be begging for 5 wins.

Here's my W-L ...
L - NIU
L - ISU
W - UNI
W - Central Michigan
W - Minnesota
L - MSU
W - PSU
L - NW
L - Indiana
W- Purdue
L - Mich
W - Nebby

6-6 at best... we usually beat one team we shouldn't and lose to one we should not under any circumstances in these type of years.
 
SpecialKHawk said:
I hope you are right about the offense....

Here's a few items to consider
1. Lost our best WR -> drafted and made countless big plays (record setter)
2. Lost our best Offensive Lineman -> first round pick
3. Lost our top RB -> transfer out (1400 + yds from scrimmage)
4. Retained our top quality QB - no proven back-up if he goes down even for a game
5. New Coordinator running a moderation of familiar scheme -> X Factor

On the defensive side of the ball I believe we would have a potential Top 20 defense worthy of carrying this year's team to a better record if we were returning an experienced and healthy D-Line. Although I like the young talent, it is way too much to expect results from freshman and red-shirt freshman in the trenches in major college football. When you can't stop anyone one up front in the trenches it negates any talent you have in the LB's and secondary. In addition, James morris has to show me much, much more than he has the first two years at LB as well (he may but it remains to be seen). The defense was one of the worst statisically in the KF era last season it included three NFL drafted players and another quality 5th year Sr. d-lineman. New position coaches and coordinators as well.

Again I see a lot of trouble this season. If JB goes down, we will be begging for 5 wins.

Here's my W-L ...
L - NIU
L - ISU
W - UNI
W - Central Michigan
W - Minnesota
L - MSU
W - PSU
L - NW
L - Indiana
W- Purdue
L - Mich
W - Nebby

6-6 at best... we usually beat one team we shouldn't and lose to one we should not under any circumstances in these type of years.
Click to expand...

I'm not even going to touch that. I will agree to totally and unequivocally disagree.
 
Hawkfromnorwalk said:
I'm not even going to touch that. I will agree to totally and unequivocally disagree.
Click to expand...

No problem. I hope they can pull a rabbit out-of-the hat this season but common football sense says otherwise. It takes a cohesive program, talented and experienced players and some luck to win 8+ games in major college football.

I'm really interested in all seriousness how you see our offense improving over last year. Can you list some aspects that you believe will translate to a greater improvement this coming season?
 
SpecialKHawk said:
I hope you are right about the offense....

Here's a few items to consider
1. Lost our best WR -> drafted and made countless big plays (record setter)
2. Lost our best Offensive Lineman -> first round pick
3. Lost our top RB -> transfer out (1400 + yds from scrimmage)
4. Retained our top quality QB - no proven back-up if he goes down even for a game
5. New Coordinator running a moderation of familiar scheme -> X Factor

On the defensive side of the ball I believe we would have a potential Top 20 defense worthy of carrying this year's team to a better record if we were returning an experienced and healthy D-Line. Although I like the young talent, it is way too much to expect results from freshman and red-shirt freshman in the trenches in major college football. When you can't stop anyone one up front in the trenches it negates any talent you have in the LB's and secondary. In addition, James morris has to show me much, much more than he has the first two years at LB as well (he may but it remains to be seen). The defense was one of the worst statisically in the KF era last season it included three NFL drafted players and another quality 5th year Sr. d-lineman. New position coaches and coordinators as well.

Again I see a lot of trouble this season. If JB goes down, we will be begging for 5 wins.

Here's my W-L ...
L - NIU
L - ISU
W - UNI
W - Central Michigan
W - Minnesota
L - MSU
W - PSU
L - NW
L - Indiana
W- Purdue
L - Mich
W - Nebby

6-6 at best... we usually beat one team we shouldn't and lose to one we should not under any circumstances in these type of years.
Click to expand...
WTF
 
We've had worse WRs and QB in past and had no problem. We always lose a top O-lineman. We've had RB issues for a long time. I honestly don't see why anyone would think 5-7 ever.
 
With all the variables...new coaches...turnover in positions..etc etc..my take is this.

If Ferentz really is a great coach, this is the kind of season where he proves it. If it's 6-6 or 7-5 again...then he's not all that he's cracked up to be. It's seasons like this, where "average" is the consensus, that define a coach. with 6-6 or 7-5 "talent"...do you just plod along...or do you get that extra 1-2 wins out of our players?

The reason Ferentz makes "the big bucks"...is that he's expected to make those 6-6 or 7-5 teams perform at a 9-3 level. If not...he's as overpaid as some would assert.
 
HawkeyeHypnosis said:
We've had worse WRs and QB in past and had no problem. We always lose a top O-lineman. We've had RB issues for a long time. I honestly don't see why anyone would think 5-7 ever.
Click to expand...

Some of our past teams may have had an outstanding defense or an outstanding running game to offset the weakness at one position or position group? You are throwing out a single item from a single past team... i'm not sure that is accurate comparison to this year's personnel group.

In what areas or position groups do you feel we will be much improved over last season? We won 7 games with a very similar schedule and more experience in both the offensive and defensive lines. Last year's personnel group also contained 6 NFL drafted players.

I just want someone to pencil out for me how they see an improved team, in what position groups, etc. from last season? Which players will step up and offset key losses from last year's down year no less?
 
SpecialKHawk said:
No problem. I hope they can pull a rabbit out-of-the hat this season but common football sense says otherwise. It takes a cohesive program, talented and experienced players and some luck to win 8+ games in major college football.

I'm really interested in all seriousness how you see our offense improving over last year. Can you list some aspects that you believe will translate to a greater improvement this coming season?
Click to expand...

Ok. Quick hit on the offense. Losing Marvin is a big loss, however Davis and KMM should fill in nicely. The passing game however will benefit much more from increased production from the TE position. CJ's production was barely noticed the first half of the season. That will change this year. The combo of those three will make up for the loss of McNutt.

The OL took a hit in the offseason, there is no doubt. However, after watching Kirk the last 13 seasons I have learned one thing, he always puts together good OLs. Losing Reiff and Gettis hurts, but I see a TON of potential, both in the starters returning and the youth coming up, like Scherff and Donnal. There will be a drop off, but not substantial.

Running back is going to take a hit, no doubt there. However look at what we faced coming into 2009. Our RBs versus UNI were Paki and an unknown ARob. We played the rest of the season with a combo of ARob and Wegher. That's all we had. This year, we have two guys with some experience in Johnson and Bullock, an older yet inexperienced back in walk on Dawson, and raw talent in incoming recruits Garmon and Hill. We only need a serviceable running game. I think we get that with what we have.

Contrary to popular belief, JVB was not a bad QB last year. His stats were pretty good for a first year starter. His only issues, bad decisions in the face of a blitz and disappearing on the road. Symptoms of a first year starter. I don't see his stats getting worse. He will be fine.

So this is why I have a decent feeling about our offense. We won't be world beaters, but we will be just fine. And the schedule sets up nicely as far as a learning curve to get things in order.
 
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