Bracket Racket: Iowa has 7th Best Chance at FInal four?

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
This will serve as our version of ‘Bracketology’. With the Iowa men’s basketball team back in play as it relates to NCAA tournament discussions, we’ll take a regular look at where the Hawkeyes are trending as it relates to this year’s tournament.
For the most part, we’ll be using information from TeamRankings.com, which is also a site featured on ESPN’s Bracketology website. That doesn’t make it THE authority, but regardless of whether or not you are a fan of the worldwide leader, they do set the market in a lot of ways.
Here were some interesting notes I found while perusing that site this morning:
DEEP RUN?: If you click on the S16 header in this link, you’ll see the teams that site picks as mostly likely to make it to the Sweet 16. Among all of the teams in college hoops, it has the Hawkeyes with the 9th best chance at 49.6%. That’s a better chance than Duke, Michigan State and North Carolina. Wisconsin is one slot ahead of Iowa here at the 8th best chance.
While there, click on the E8 header, which is for the Elite 8. Iowa moves up to the 8th best chance, moving ahead of Wisconsin and at a 30.8% chance, nearly 1 in 3. They give Iowa the 7th best chance at making the Final Four at 17.5%. They give Iowa a 9.9% chance of making it to the title game (again, 7th best odds) and a 5.3% chance of winning it all, the same chance they give to Kentucky.
PROJECTING RECORD: The site tabs Iowa with a 12.4% chance of being a five seed and a 12.3% chance of a four seed. The five seed is the best odds so that is what they list on Iowa’s team page here. It has Iowa going 23.6-7-4 the rest of the way, and 12.6-5.3 in league play. If you round to the nearest tenth that’s 24-7 (13-5). I’d sign up for that right now, thank you very much.
There are just three games remaining where this system projects a less than 50% winning probability; at Ohio State (35.1%), Wisconsin (42.1%) and Michigan State (46.5%). Some of these projections are fun to look at and you can see them for yourself at this link.
In all, the site gives Iowa the second best chance of winning the Big Ten, just behind Ohio State (31.5% likelihood for Ohio State to 22.5% for Iowa) and that gap narrows for the Big Ten Tournament title chances (26.3% to 23.3%).
Given that it’s just the middle of December, these numbers don’t have any bearing on future outcomes. That said, tis far better to be in these discussions and simulations than not.
 
When looking at these this weekend, I was surprised as well. I mean we are getting tons of love with these projections.
 
deanvogs said:
When looking at these this weekend, I was surprised as well. I mean we are getting tons of love with these projections.
Click to expand...


We should be surprised but not that surprised.

You are a level headed poster Dean and I would like to consider myself one as well. The loss in Ames isnt the end of the season.

After watching Iowa play Friday and the rest of the B1G play over the weekend, I am very excited for the rest of the season. Iowa is a very good team and will not be an easy out come March.
 
I don't get how they're coming up with this. The tournament is all about matchups, of which (obviously) none are known.
 
The good thing about Iowa is we are capable of beating anyone in the nation when we have a bad shooting night. Very few teams can survive shooting bad in the tourney. We can.
 
PCHawk said:
The good thing about Iowa is we are capable of beating anyone in the nation when we have a bad shooting night. Very few teams can survive shooting bad in the tourney. We can.
Click to expand...

Iowa has a lot of power on the inside game, and is very capable of having a lot of power from the outside. The teams Iowa has lost to were games Iowa was very capable of winning and both of those teams are ranked. On a given day Iowa can beat anyone. Upsets happen on any given day too. I think with Iowas coaching staff that an upset isn't as likely than with a lot of other teams.
 
JonDMiller said:
This will serve as our version of ‘Bracketology’. With the Iowa men’s basketball team back in play as it relates to NCAA tournament discussions, we’ll take a regular look at where the Hawkeyes are trending as it relates to this year’s tournament.
For the most part, we’ll be using information from TeamRankings.com, which is also a site featured on ESPN’s Bracketology website. That doesn’t make it THE authority, but regardless of whether or not you are a fan of the worldwide leader, they do set the market in a lot of ways.
Here were some interesting notes I found while perusing that site this morning:
DEEP RUN?: If you click on the S16 header in this link, you’ll see the teams that site picks as mostly likely to make it to the Sweet 16. Among all of the teams in college hoops, it has the Hawkeyes with the 9th best chance at 49.6%. That’s a better chance than Duke, Michigan State and North Carolina. Wisconsin is one slot ahead of Iowa here at the 8th best chance.
While there, click on the E8 header, which is for the Elite 8. Iowa moves up to the 8th best chance, moving ahead of Wisconsin and at a 30.8% chance, nearly 1 in 3. They give Iowa the 7th best chance at making the Final Four at 17.5%. They give Iowa a 9.9% chance of making it to the title game (again, 7th best odds) and a 5.3% chance of winning it all, the same chance they give to Kentucky.
PROJECTING RECORD: The site tabs Iowa with a 12.4% chance of being a five seed and a 12.3% chance of a four seed. The five seed is the best odds so that is what they list on Iowa’s team page here. It has Iowa going 23.6-7-4 the rest of the way, and 12.6-5.3 in league play. If you round to the nearest tenth that’s 24-7 (13-5). I’d sign up for that right now, thank you very much.
There are just three games remaining where this system projects a less than 50% winning probability; at Ohio State (35.1%), Wisconsin (42.1%) and Michigan State (46.5%). Some of these projections are fun to look at and you can see them for yourself at this link.
In all, the site gives Iowa the second best chance of winning the Big Ten, just behind Ohio State (31.5% likelihood for Ohio State to 22.5% for Iowa) and that gap narrows for the Big Ten Tournament title chances (26.3% to 23.3%).
Given that it’s just the middle of December, these numbers don’t have any bearing on future outcomes. That said, tis far better to be in these discussions and simulations than not.
Click to expand...

Interesting projections to read and talk about. How about we make it to the tourney first. Basically the same team and problems as last year with the same non-conference record and a much tougher conference schedule.

Iowa is going to be a bubble team again without getting some good wins. Hope they start soon.
 
jo12208 said:
Interesting projections to read and talk about. How about we make it to the tourney first. Basically the same team and problems as last year with the same non-conference record and a much tougher conference schedule.

Iowa is going to be a bubble team again without getting some good wins. Hope they start soon.
Click to expand...

Forget what all of us biased Iowa fans think. Some will never be happy and some like myself always see the upside. How about we all just go with what basketball people in general are saying. The polls don't think we are a bubble team. The info in Jon's initial post doesn't suggest we're a bubble team. Hoiberg doesn't think Iowa is a bubble team. The consensus is Iowa will make the tournament and probably have a decent seed...say the 4 to 6 range.

Last year these same sites and observers didn't think too much of Iowa. This year they do. Objective observers can step back and reasonably evaluate our team, talent, potential, etc. I haven't read anywhere that we are on the bubble or a long shot to make the NCAA Tournament this year. If someone can provide a link I promise to read the article...has to be an objective source.

I know it's early but that works both ways. Some say Iowa can't do this and won't do that. I on the other hand think the sky is the limit and we will get better as the season progresses...just like we did Fran's first 3 years. And our starting point is at a much higher level than previously so...
 
WindsorHawk said:
Forget what all of us biased Iowa fans think. Some will never be happy and some like myself always see the upside. How about we all just go with what basketball people in general are saying. The polls don't think we are a bubble team. The info in Jon's initial post doesn't suggest we're a bubble team. Hoiberg doesn't think Iowa is a bubble team. The consensus is Iowa will make the tournament and probably have a decent seed...say the 4 to 6 range.

Last year these same sites and observers didn't think too much of Iowa. This year they do. Objective observers can step back and reasonably evaluate our team, talent, potential, etc. I haven't read anywhere that we are on the bubble or a long shot to make the NCAA Tournament this year. If someone can provide a link I promise to read the article...has to be an objective source.

I know it's early but that works both ways. Some say Iowa can't do this and won't do that. I on the other hand think the sky is the limit and we will get better as the season progresses...just like we did Fran's first 3 years. And our starting point is at a much higher level than previously so...
Click to expand...

I agree with this. Pretty excited to see where this season goes as long as they can improve their clutch FT shooting.

This was an issue last year and has been the main reason for the two losses this year. At this point IMO, this is the only area another team can exploit against Iowa.

I believe Fran has the coaching ability and roster to adjust to pretty much anything else that is thrown at them. High scoring up and down game, or defensive slug fest, I think Iowa has the guys in place to get it done. But they have to find 1 or 2 guys (Utoff looks like one) that can hit the cold blooded FTs to bury teams.
 
Xerxes said:
I agree with this. Pretty excited to see where this season goes as long as they can improve their clutch FT shooting.

This was an issue last year and has been the main reason for the two losses this year. At this point IMO, this is the only area another team can exploit against Iowa.

I believe Fran has the coaching ability and roster to adjust to pretty much anything else that is thrown at them. High scoring up and down game, or defensive slug fest, I think Iowa has the guys in place to get it done. But they have to find 1 or 2 guys (Utoff looks like one) that can hit the cold blooded FTs to bury teams.
Click to expand...


I really think Marble is a clutch free throw shooter too. For whatever reason he is struggling this year tho.
 
jo12208 said:
Interesting projections to read and talk about. How about we make it to the tourney first. Basically the same team and problems as last year with the same non-conference record and a much tougher conference schedule.

Iowa is going to be a bubble team again without getting some good wins. Hope they start soon.
Click to expand...

Except that the RPI this year is 200 higher than last year. They are going to make the NCAA's this year
 
JonDMiller said:
as is this reply
Click to expand...

Well please explain how you can put a percentage on a teams chances when you have no idea what seed they will be and what teams they will play? Especially this early in the season. Just like bracketology. Those guys are wrong more often than not.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Share this page

Top