Beating back a myth

C

CAARHawk

Banned
I keep hearing how it is expected for new coaches to lose recruits and players and such and also how hard it is to put together a good recruiting class in the fall of your first year.

To test this method, I looked up all the major conference coaching changes since Lick was hired at Iowa and looked at the recruiting results for each following year.

I was surprised to see that a number of coaches were able to lock down very strong recruiting classes for their actual first season. Beyond that, many others locked down huge classes during their first true recruiting year.

The most impressive are Buzz Williams, Tony Bennett, Josh Pastner, Frank Martin, Travis Ford, Sean Miller, Tubby, Turgeon, Hugs and, surprisingly, Pelfrey. Each of these guys pulled in the type of classes combining 2007 and 2008 that I think FM is going to have to put Iowa back on track.

The least impressive are Lick, Bzdelick, Keno, and Pat Knight.

So please stop saying you cannot get a class together in your first year. Actually, more coaches on this list did it than the ones that didn't.
 
CAARHawk said:
I keep hearing how it is expected for new coaches to lose recruits and players and such and also how hard it is to put together a good recruiting class in the fall of your first year.

To test this method, I looked up all the major conference coaching changes since Lick was hired at Iowa and looked at the recruiting results for each following year.

I was surprised to see that a number of coaches were able to lock down very strong recruiting classes for their actual first season. Beyond that, many others locked down huge classes during their first true recruiting year.

The most impressive are Buzz Williams, Tony Bennett, Josh Pastner, Frank Martin, Travis Ford, Sean Miller, Tubby, Turgeon, Hugs and, surprisingly, Pelfrey. Each of these guys pulled in the type of classes combining 2007 and 2008 that I think FM is going to have to put Iowa back on track.

The least impressive are Lick, Bzdelick, Keno, and Pat Knight.

So please stop saying you cannot get a class together in your first year. Actually, more coaches on this list did it than the ones that didn't.
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Let's see what schools you mentioned there. Marquette has been a very consistent program for some time, and most high school kids are aware that Dwyane Wade went there. Memphis has a good rep thanks to Calipari, and Pastner was one of his key guys.

Then Tubby Smith, Bob Huggins.....come on, those guys are extremely well known coaches, whose names help quite a bit.

It's difficult to put together great classes immediately after the change, and it is pretty common to lose players that were already on the team. ESPECIALLY when we are in the process of an EXTREME shift in philosophy. Going from the slowest imaginable pace in college basketball to fast breaking? There's going to be defections when you make that big of a change.
 
So I mentioned ten coaches and you responded about 4. And your comment was that coaches with bigger names get better players. Is that a valid excuse? I also didn't mention other guys that put together some good classes like Crean, Anthony Grant who traded up from 2* Cully to a 3* PG. Darin Horn at South Carolina also put together a nice class in 2009 after being hired in 2007.

I am telling you, on this list the coaches who were able to put together a decent group of players in their first year on the job far outweighs the ones that weren't.

But, hey don't let facts confuse you. Just keep thinking that most major college coaches can't get a good recruiting class signed in their first year. Let's just hope our coach doesn't believe the myth.
 
CAARHawk said:
So I mentioned ten coaches and you responded about 4. And your comment was that coaches with bigger names get better players. Is that a valid excuse? I also didn't mention other guys that put together some good classes like Crean, Anthony Grant who traded up from 2* Cully to a 3* PG. Darin Horn at South Carolina also put together a nice class in 2009 after being hired in 2007.

I am telling you, on this list the coaches who were able to put together a decent group of players in their first year on the job far outweighs the ones that weren't.

But, hey don't let facts confuse you. Just keep thinking that most major college coaches can't get a good recruiting class signed in their first year. Let's just hope our coach doesn't believe the myth.
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Why don't you just come out and say that you think Fran is in over his head? Based on your posts from last night and throughout the day today, you clearly think the sky is falling and that Fran is doomed for failure. Hell, you even said that by this coming November, his fate would be sealed.
 
CAARHawk said:
I keep hearing how it is expected for new coaches to lose recruits and players and such and also how hard it is to put together a good recruiting class in the fall of your first year.

To test this method, I looked up all the major conference coaching changes since Lick was hired at Iowa and looked at the recruiting results for each following year.

I was surprised to see that a number of coaches were able to lock down very strong recruiting classes for their actual first season. Beyond that, many others locked down huge classes during their first true recruiting year.

The most impressive are Buzz Williams, Tony Bennett, Josh Pastner, Frank Martin, Travis Ford, Sean Miller, Tubby, Turgeon, Hugs and, surprisingly, Pelfrey. Each of these guys pulled in the type of classes combining 2007 and 2008 that I think FM is going to have to put Iowa back on track.

The least impressive are Lick, Bzdelick, Keno, and Pat Knight.

So please stop saying you cannot get a class together in your first year. Actually, more coaches on this list did it than the ones that didn't.
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First to answer the question why don't I just come out and say I think Fran is in over his head?

I don't know that he is. I am only saying that it is not accurate to say that most coaches can't sign a good class in their first year. Fran can still prove that he can do so, and I hope to *** he does. I just can't stand the defeatest attitude on these boards. Because I could ask all of you that keep arguing that we shouldn't expect FM to sign a top class in the next year, why don't you just come out and say you think he is over his head. I am not willing to say that, but I am also not willing to let the water out of the pool so he doesn't have to sink or swim.

But here is a list of current coaching changes and where the schools stand with respect to signed players from the former regime.

The list of hired new coaches on major conference teams
Auburn Barbee Currently 4 - 2's 1 - 3 and 1 - NR

BC Donahue Currently 1 -4 and 2 -3s

Seton Hall Willard Currently 2 -3s 1-2 and 1 NR

St. John's Lavin Currently 1 - 3

Iowa McCaffery Currently 1 -3 2-2's

DePaul Purnell Currently 2- 3's 1-2

Empty jobs

Oregon

Clemson Currently 1 - 3

Rutgers Currently 2 -2's W

WF Currently 4-4's 1-3


Not really a huge gold mine across all teams, but there are some real gems. Most of them of course at Wake and I believe most of those guys have not signed their letter.

It will be interesting to see how things shake out. As a fan, I expect FM to end up signing a better than average class for 2010 or at least 2011 with respect to the rest of these coaches, considering that there are not a lot of big names here and there aren't a lot of big time jobs. If there is a year to make a splash as a new coach this is the one.
 
CAARHawk said:
First to answer the question why don't I just come out and say I think Fran is in over his head?

I don't know that he is. I am only saying that it is not accurate to say that most coaches can't sign a good class in their first year. Fran can still prove that he can do so, and I hope to *** he does. I just can't stand the defeatest attitude on these boards. Because I could ask all of you that keep arguing that we shouldn't expect FM to sign a top class in the next year, why don't you just come out and say you think he is over his head. I am not willing to say that, but I am also not willing to let the water out of the pool so he doesn't have to sink or swim.

But here is a list of current coaching changes and where the schools stand with respect to signed players from the former regime.

The list of hired new coaches on major conference teams
Auburn Barbee Currently 4 - 2's 1 - 3 and 1 - NR

BC Donahue Currently 1 -4 and 2 -3s

Seton Hall Willard Currently 2 -3s 1-2 and 1 NR

St. John's Lavin Currently 1 - 3

Iowa McCaffery Currently 1 -3 2-2's

DePaul Purnell Currently 2- 3's 1-2

Empty jobs

Oregon

Clemson Currently 1 - 3

Rutgers Currently 2 -2's W

WF Currently 4-4's 1-3


Not really a huge gold mine across all teams, but there are some real gems. Most of them of course at Wake and I believe most of those guys have not signed their letter.

It will be interesting to see how things shake out. As a fan, I expect FM to end up signing a better than average class for 2010 or at least 2011 with respect to the rest of these coaches, considering that there are not a lot of big names here and there aren't a lot of big time jobs. If there is a year to make a splash as a new coach this is the one.
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Defeatist attitude defines nearly everything you have written over the past two days. No one has said that he can't sign a good class...what people have said is that when a new regime takes over that there is bound to be some turnover in personnel - which is what happened. If Fran goes out and signs a couple of juco players to fill the gaps, great. If he holds on to the open schollys and uses them next year, that's great too. Fran was brought here to rebuild the program, and even in the best of scenarios that wasn't going to be a quick process.

You and I, and everyone else needs to be patient.
 
CAARHawk,
If Caff can convince good recruits to play for a mid major like Sienna, what makes you think he can't sell recruits on playing for a Big 10 university? I personally think he will get some very good recruits. It's just not going to be this week, but b-ball season is a long ways away and alot can happen between now and then.
 
CAARHawk said:
So I mentioned ten coaches and you responded about 4. And your comment was that coaches with bigger names get better players. Is that a valid excuse? I also didn't mention other guys that put together some good classes like Crean, Anthony Grant who traded up from 2* Cully to a 3* PG. Darin Horn at South Carolina also put together a nice class in 2009 after being hired in 2007.

I am telling you, on this list the coaches who were able to put together a decent group of players in their first year on the job far outweighs the ones that weren't.

But, hey don't let facts confuse you. Just keep thinking that most major college coaches can't get a good recruiting class signed in their first year. Let's just hope our coach doesn't believe the myth.
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I didn't say Coach COULDN'T do it. I said it's difficult. Obviously there are guys who do it. But it's not easy. And we are in pretty bad shape.

But I'm done arguing with you, because there's no way to defeat an irrational fool in an argument. You don't like the hire at all, and that's fine. Stay away from Carver, and don't come around when Coach gets this ship righted. You don't deserve to savor the success that Coach is going to bring.
 
LISTEN PEOPLE! STOP SAYING I DON'T LIKE THE HIRE!

I have not said that at any point! Can you please get that through your heads!

What have I said?

After the hire, Fuller and Larson will thrive in this offense and FM needs to hire a Midwest recruiter with really strong AAU connections and he needs to find his Kenny Hasbrouk type player.

When rumors of Fuller leaving surfaced, darn!

When the Larson decomit happened, okay now he needs more that Hasbrouk. He needs to go out and sign 4 or 5 legitimate D-1 starter types by 2011. Way more new hires have done that since 07 than haven't. FM should be expected to. That is what he was hired to do.

What have I argued against?
1) Losing Fuller and Larson is no big deal.
These guys are the best suited to run FM's system. It is a big deal.
2) It will take a long time and we should be patient.
The data shows if FM can't turn the recruiting around quickly, the odds of it happening in the future are not great.

It just seems like if you don't agree with the dual sentiments of it is good riddance for the players that have left and it will be a long time till things get better then you are marked as some kind of turncoat.

Why can't you just accept that I don't agree that the loss of Larson and Fuller is
not good and that we should expect the new coach to start bringing in the recruits who can get the team to be able to compete in his first year, without making false accusations about my thinking the hire was bad!
 
LOL!!!

I actually really like the hire! But no matter what I feel, it won't mean anything if he can't get the players he needs to be successful at this level. And after looking at what has happened with all the major conference hires over the last few years, I have come to the conclusion that if the jump doesn't happen quickly it is likely not to occur in the long run.

Basically, the slow route a lot of people are advocating just doesn't seem to pan out in the real world of college hoops.

That is why I keel saying he needs to go get the assistant that has players in his back pocket now. Pay the guy Craig Neal money and just do as much due dilligence as necessary as you can to keep things above board. You really probably only need 2 or 3 years out of such a coach to have the program firmly set.
 
CAARHawk said:
LOL!!!

I actually really like the hire! But no matter what I feel, it won't mean anything if he can't get the players he needs to be successful at this level. And after looking at what has happened with all the major conference hires over the last few years, I have come to the conclusion that if the jump doesn't happen quickly it is likely not to occur in the long run.

Basically, the slow route a lot of people are advocating just doesn't seem to pan out in the real world of college hoops.

That is why I keel saying he needs to go get the assistant that has players in his back pocket now. Pay the guy Craig Neal money and just do as much due dilligence as necessary as you can to keep things above board. You really probably only need 2 or 3 years out of such a coach to have the program firmly set.
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But you said in a different thread that Frans fate would be sealed by November of this year. Are you not willing to give Fran 2 or 3 years?
 
ShadasRevenge said:
But you said in a different thread that Frans fate would be sealed by November of this year. Are you not willing to give Fran 2 or 3 years?
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Of course he's not. If we don't land Randle in November, it's all over. And this guy wonders why we think he doesn't like the hire.

He also said if we didn't get a Fab Five-like class after Year 2, then we should be looking for a new coach and new AD. CAAR, I know you think myself and many others here are idiots, but that certainly doesn't scream "I really like this hire". That sounds an awful lot like you're frothing at the mouth and sharpening the axe. Because that is going to be incredibly difficult to do.

What did Lute Olson do in his first few years at Iowa? This is an honest question, I'm just 20 years old, so all I have to look at are his records from '74-'78 (61-48, 33-39 in the Big Ten, never finished higher than 4th in the BT). Maybe I'm missing something, but that doesn't look overly impressive. But do I dispute that Olson was the greatest coach in program history? Not a chance. If it takes a little longer, I'm okay. It's worked before, and like it or not, we're in this one for the long haul, because another quick axeing will sink us for good.
 
One thing, CAARHawk.

The programs that put together the good first class were all pretty good programs when the coach was coming in. How many of those programs were changing coaches because they fired coaches because the program was in bad shape. I would bet if we were a mid-tier B10 program and Lick had health issues and had to retire that a coach coming in could keep all of these guys or have better class than they will have the way it is now.

You seem to think you have an all inclusive list. Name all the coaching changes that happened over the last three years and figure it out and then come back and let us know how it looked. You cherry picked programs that were all in good shape.
 
Do you have a link to this info? (Not trying to be an *** or anything. I would just like to read about it.).
 
Okay, here is the whole list.

Now, this is based on what is on Scout, so there may be some inconsistencies.

I will indicate if the previous coach was fired as someone pointed that out and it seems like a fair consideration.

2007 Hires

Arkansas Pelfrey (Coach Fired)
2007 1-4 2008 3-4s, 3-3s, 2009 1 - 4, 3 - 3's, 1 - 2 2010 1- 4, 2 -3

Colorado Bzdelic (Coach Fired)
2007 2 -2s, 1 - 3 2008 1 - 4, 3 - 3s, 1 - 2, 2009 1 - 3, 3 -2s 2010 0

Iowa Lick (Coach hired away)
2007 2 - 3s, 1 - 2, 2008 1 - 4, 4 - 3s, 1 - 2, 2009 3 - 2, 1 - 3, 2010 1 - 3, 2 -2s.

K-State Martin (Coach Hired away)
2007 2 - 5s, 1 -4, 3 - 3s, 1 - 2, 2008 1 -3, 1 -2 2009 2 -5s, 2 - 3s, 3 - 2s
2010 2 -3s

Michigan Beilein (Coach fired)
2007 1 -4, 1-2, 1-3 2008 1 -2, 1-3, 2009 3 -3s, 1 -4, 2010 1 -4, 2 - 3s

Minnesota Tubby (Coach fired)
2007 2 - 3s 2008 3 - 4s, 2 - 3s 2009 2 - 4s, 1 - 3s, 1 - 2 2010 2 - 3s

Texas A&M Turgeon (Coach hired away)
2007 1 -5, 1 -4, 2 - 3s, 2 - 2s 2008 1 - 4, 1 - 3, 1 - 2 2009 1 - 4, 4 - 3s 2010 3 - 4s, 1 - 3. This guy is a bad***!

West Virginia Huggs (Coach hired away)
2007 2 - 3s, 2008 1 - 5, 1 -4, 1 - 3, 1 - 2 (hits for the cycle) 2009 1 - 4, 4 -3s, 2010 1 - 4, 1 - 2

2008
Cal Montgomery (Coach fired)
2008 1 - 3, 1 - 4, 2009 2 -3s, 1 - 2 2010 3 -4s, 1 -3.

Indiana Crean (Coach fired)
2008 5 - 3s, 1 -2, 1 NR 2009 4 - 4s, 2 - 3s 2010 2 - 3s

LSU Johnson (Coach fired)
2008 1 -5, 1 - 3, 2 -2s 2009 2 - 3s 2010 1 -4, 4 -3s

Marquette Williams (Coach hired away)
2008 1 -2, 1 -3 2009 3 -4s, 3 -3s, (Nice) 2010 2 - 3s, 1 -4

OKState Ford (Coach Fired)
2008 1 -3, 1 -2 2009 3 - 4s, 2 - 3s 2010 2 - 4s 2 - 3s

Providence Keno (Coach Fired)
2008 1 - 3 2009 4 -3s, 3 - 2s 2010 1 - 4, 1 - 3, 1 -2

South Carolina Horn (Coach Fired)
2008 (0) 2009 1 - 4, 2 -3s, 1 - 2 2010 3 - 4s, 2 - 3s

Stanford Dawkins (Coach Hired away)
2008 2 -3s, 1 -2 2009 1 -3, 1 -2 2010 2 -4s, 4 -3s

Texas Tech Knight (Coach Retired)
2008 3 -2s 2009 1 - 2, 2 -3s, 1 - NR 2010 1 -3, 1-2, 1- NR

2009

Bama Grant (Coach fired)
2009 3 - 3s, 2010 2 - 4s

Zona Miller (Coach retired)
2009 4 - 4s, 1 - 3 2010 1 -3, 1 - 4

Georgia Fox (Coach fired)
2009 2 - 2s 2010 1 -2, 1 -3

Virginia Bennett (Coach fired)
2009 1 - 4 2010 # 22 rated national class

Wash State Bone (Coach hired away)
2009 3 - 3s, 2 - 2s 2010 2 - 3s

Do with what you will with this list. I just thought it was interesting when I did all this research that it seems like a good amount of coaches are able to put together strong early classes, whether the former coach was fired or even if they are not at a traditional basketball powerhouse. Sure some of these programs have had some success in the past, but they are not UCLA, Arizona, Duke, North Carolina and Kansas type jobs.
 
You can do all the research you want. Caar's stats show that some get it done quickly and some don't. I don't believe there is a quick fix for the Iowa program...and I'm not sure there should be one. We have a lot of problems and Rome wasn't built in a day. Sorry.
 
One interesting thing to look at would be to figure out how Dawkins and the South Carolina coach got it going in year three. Because it seems like most other guys had it going right off the bat, or haven't been able to get it done.

I know USC's good 2010 class hails from close to home.
 
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