JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Iowa has played its final non-conference game of the year and they sit at 11-2, the same record they had in the out of conference last year.
Iowa ranks 13th in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings following their win against Arkansas Pine Bluff. Last year, they ranked 45th after beating Coppin State, which moved them to 11-2 on the season.
This year, Iowa’s schedule ranks 289th in the Pomeroy numbers, but it’s at its lowest point it will be at for the rest of the year. Iowa ranks 3rd in the nation in fastest tempo, averaging just 14.0 seconds per possession. Iowa ranks 7th in adjusted offensive efficiency and in the Top 40 in defensive efficiency. Iowa is also one of the tallest teams in the nation plus one of the deepest, as Iowa’s bench minutes ranks 9th in the nation.
My rankings are based on what I am seeing right now, not necessarily based on how I think things will look in March. Next week, I’ll reset my predictions for how I think things will play out in the Big Ten season before it gets tipped off.
The number in parenthesis is the number of wins that team has against Ken Pomeroy Top 100 teams at this point in time.
1. WISCONSIN (7): I ‘think’ Ohio State probably gets the better of Wisconsin over the course of the long season. Ohio State can play defense in ways Wisconsin can’t and Michigan State is more talented but the Badgers have been impressive to start this year and I’ll keep them here until they lose. They are playing the best ‘team’ ball of anyone in the Big Ten.
2. MICHIGAN STATE (3): Texas was riding high after their win against North Carolina. Then the Spartans rolled into Austin and beat the Longhorns 92-78. That’s a great road win against a decent team; there are some more impressed with Texas than I am. Adreian Payne scored a career best 33 points. The sleeper has awakened?
3. OHIO STATE (6): The Buckeyes were down eight with just under a minute to play against Notre Dame on Saturday and came back to win it. Notre Dame’s win-share at that point in time was near 100-percent. That’s a remarkable win, but I was surprised Ohio State found itself in such a hole that late.
4. IOWA (3): The Hawkeyes led Pine Bluff 52-11 late in the first half on Sunday. Iowa is good, but not THAT good. Still, Iowa has destroyed the cupcakes on their schedule this year unlike they have since the 1980′s…at least that is my opinion. I think this team has a chance to be as good as any Iowa team has been since the 1980′s. Whether or not they realize that potential remains to be seen but if it happens, Josh Oglesby is going to have a hand in it. Him hitting his first four three-point attempts of the year on Sunday was a very nice thing to see.
5. MICHIGAN (2): Solid win against Stanford this past week. Michigan has been an inconsistent team thus far, which is to be expected breaking in a new point guard. Still, they Wolverines tout three of the best players in the conference in Stauskas, McGary and Robinson and on a given night have the firepower to beat anyone. That said, I like how Iowa matches up with them, but I prefer the Wolverines to Wisconsin.
I’m comfortable saying teams above this line will make it to the NCAA tournament. I think one team below this line makes it in, MAYBE two.
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6. ILLINOIS (2): Great win for the Illini in their annual border battle with previously unbeaten Missouri. That’s a better win than Indiana or Minnesota has at this point (at least in my opinion, Minnesota fans) and their road win at UNLV is the tipping point for me to put Illinois atop the second tier of the league.
7. INDIANA (1, and that team is 99th): If the Hoosiers and Gophers played on a neutral court, I think Indiana would win 6 out of 10 times so I go with the Hoosiers here.
8. MINNESOTA (2): Having just said that, the guard play for Minnesota is good enough to beat the Hoosiers, and maybe some others, at home.
9. PENN STATE (1): This team is going to beat one or two teams at home this year that it has no business beating there. I just keep hoping it’s not Iowa. Frazier and Newbill are a dangerous duo if they get rolling. Penn State hosts each of my top four teams this winter.
10. PURDUE (1): Solid win against a decent West Virginia team on Saturday. This is a team that is tough to rate and seems to still be working through some chemistry issues. My gut tells me they will be much better than 10th on this list before long.
11. NEBRASKA (2): My twitter mentions from Nebraska fans are entertaining. They want to be considered relevant in basketball, like they’ve arrived. If you make it to the NIT this year and win a few games, then I will give it to you. Until then, you’re a spoiler in this league and probably will get one or two teams in your new gym.
12. NORTHWESTERN (0): Rough year to be a Cat backer.
Iowa ranks 13th in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings following their win against Arkansas Pine Bluff. Last year, they ranked 45th after beating Coppin State, which moved them to 11-2 on the season.
This year, Iowa’s schedule ranks 289th in the Pomeroy numbers, but it’s at its lowest point it will be at for the rest of the year. Iowa ranks 3rd in the nation in fastest tempo, averaging just 14.0 seconds per possession. Iowa ranks 7th in adjusted offensive efficiency and in the Top 40 in defensive efficiency. Iowa is also one of the tallest teams in the nation plus one of the deepest, as Iowa’s bench minutes ranks 9th in the nation.
My rankings are based on what I am seeing right now, not necessarily based on how I think things will look in March. Next week, I’ll reset my predictions for how I think things will play out in the Big Ten season before it gets tipped off.
The number in parenthesis is the number of wins that team has against Ken Pomeroy Top 100 teams at this point in time.
1. WISCONSIN (7): I ‘think’ Ohio State probably gets the better of Wisconsin over the course of the long season. Ohio State can play defense in ways Wisconsin can’t and Michigan State is more talented but the Badgers have been impressive to start this year and I’ll keep them here until they lose. They are playing the best ‘team’ ball of anyone in the Big Ten.
2. MICHIGAN STATE (3): Texas was riding high after their win against North Carolina. Then the Spartans rolled into Austin and beat the Longhorns 92-78. That’s a great road win against a decent team; there are some more impressed with Texas than I am. Adreian Payne scored a career best 33 points. The sleeper has awakened?
3. OHIO STATE (6): The Buckeyes were down eight with just under a minute to play against Notre Dame on Saturday and came back to win it. Notre Dame’s win-share at that point in time was near 100-percent. That’s a remarkable win, but I was surprised Ohio State found itself in such a hole that late.
4. IOWA (3): The Hawkeyes led Pine Bluff 52-11 late in the first half on Sunday. Iowa is good, but not THAT good. Still, Iowa has destroyed the cupcakes on their schedule this year unlike they have since the 1980′s…at least that is my opinion. I think this team has a chance to be as good as any Iowa team has been since the 1980′s. Whether or not they realize that potential remains to be seen but if it happens, Josh Oglesby is going to have a hand in it. Him hitting his first four three-point attempts of the year on Sunday was a very nice thing to see.
5. MICHIGAN (2): Solid win against Stanford this past week. Michigan has been an inconsistent team thus far, which is to be expected breaking in a new point guard. Still, they Wolverines tout three of the best players in the conference in Stauskas, McGary and Robinson and on a given night have the firepower to beat anyone. That said, I like how Iowa matches up with them, but I prefer the Wolverines to Wisconsin.
I’m comfortable saying teams above this line will make it to the NCAA tournament. I think one team below this line makes it in, MAYBE two.
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6. ILLINOIS (2): Great win for the Illini in their annual border battle with previously unbeaten Missouri. That’s a better win than Indiana or Minnesota has at this point (at least in my opinion, Minnesota fans) and their road win at UNLV is the tipping point for me to put Illinois atop the second tier of the league.
7. INDIANA (1, and that team is 99th): If the Hoosiers and Gophers played on a neutral court, I think Indiana would win 6 out of 10 times so I go with the Hoosiers here.
8. MINNESOTA (2): Having just said that, the guard play for Minnesota is good enough to beat the Hoosiers, and maybe some others, at home.
9. PENN STATE (1): This team is going to beat one or two teams at home this year that it has no business beating there. I just keep hoping it’s not Iowa. Frazier and Newbill are a dangerous duo if they get rolling. Penn State hosts each of my top four teams this winter.
10. PURDUE (1): Solid win against a decent West Virginia team on Saturday. This is a team that is tough to rate and seems to still be working through some chemistry issues. My gut tells me they will be much better than 10th on this list before long.
11. NEBRASKA (2): My twitter mentions from Nebraska fans are entertaining. They want to be considered relevant in basketball, like they’ve arrived. If you make it to the NIT this year and win a few games, then I will give it to you. Until then, you’re a spoiler in this league and probably will get one or two teams in your new gym.
12. NORTHWESTERN (0): Rough year to be a Cat backer.
