B1G Predictions: Bowl Projections

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
Here is a list of our content items produced so far related to our 2011 Iowa & Big Ten Football Preview, which will take place throughout the entire month of July:

Iowa 2011 Game By Game Prediction
Ranking Iowa's 2011 Foes
Road to Indy: Predicting Every Game for Every Big Ten Team

After our 'predicting every game' exercise, that allowed us to have a projoected 2011 Big Ten final standing:

LEADERS

Wisconsin 12-1 (7-1)*
Ohio State 8-4 (5-3)
Illinois 8-4 (5-3)
Penn State 7-5 (4-4)
Purdue 7-5 (4-4)
Indiana 3-9 (0-8)

LEGENDS

Nebraska 10-3 (6-2)*
Michigan 9-3 (5-3)
Michigan State 8-4 (5-3)
Iowa 8-4 (4-4)
Northwestern 6-6 (3-5)
Minnesota 3-9 (0-8)

*We picked Wisconsin over Nebraska in the 2011 Big Ten title game, so that extra game is included in each team's projected overall record.

The Big Ten champion is automatically assured a bid into the BCS. If the Big Ten champion is not ranked #1 or #2 in the final BCS poll, they play in the Rose. If they are #1 or #2, they play for the BCS championship and the Rose can select an team from the BCS at large pool to replace the Big Ten champion, but that team does not have to be from the Big Ten.

There are a few issues at play this year. One of them is the status of Ohio State and whether or not they will face a bowl ban, or if that process will have taken place by the time bowl bids are awarded.

Also at play, as is the case each year, is whether or not the Big Ten will see two if its members selected for BCS bowls. That has happened all but three years during the BCS' existence.

The Big Ten will have a championship game this year for the first time in its history. An argument could be made that by NOT having a conference title game has helped the Big Ten get a second team into the BCS, because the team that wound up getting an at large selection didn't have an additional loss on its ledger due to not competing in a title game. That wouldn't have always been the case, but I am guessing it would have had an impact in some years.

We are also in an era where 'BCS Busters' (or non-AQ, which means non automatic qualifier) are viewed more favorably; Boise State & TCU have won BCS bowl games in each of the past two years (Boise over TCU in the 2010 Fiesta and TCU over Wisconsin in the 2011 Rose). Utah has also played in the Sugar and Boise beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta a few years back.

1) Teams that are not in the six BCS conferences and have a final BCS ranking of 12th or better qualify for an at large BCS spot.

2) Or, if a team from a non-automatic qualifying conference is ranked higher than a team from a conference that receives an automatic bid, they will also qualify for a BCS at large spot. However, no more than one non-AQ is guaranteed a bid even if more than one meets either of the above criteria.

This is a year where #2 may come into play even though #1 is more likely to come into play. In looking at the Big East and spitballing their outcomes, I have a hard time believing that Boise State or TCU won't be ranked ahead of the Big East champion come early December, so I think we can count on a 'BCS Buster' to get an at large bid again this year.

"So what?" you may be saying. We've had to deal with that for the past several years, right? What makes things different this year?

Notre Dame.

I know, there will be skeptics until we see the Irish back in a BCS bowl again, but Notre Dame is guaranteed a BCS slot if they finish in the Top 8 of the final BCS poll. That requires a record of at least 10-2. If they were #9, they could still receive a bid as an at large team, and given their fan following, both at the gate and the television draw and the fact that it's been quite a while since they have been to the BCS party (just two BCS bowls in the last 11 seasons, and not since the 2007 Sugar, which followed the 2006 regular season) they would have a strong hand if they get to 10-2.

That hand could be trouble for Nebraska.

Both schools have a great tradition and Nebraska travels exceptionally well. But Notre Dame's mass appeal (no pun intended) means good news at the gate in most major cities across the nation, due to their Catholic following. No, not all Notre Dame fans are Catholic, but let's be real here; it certainly helps their following. Notre Dame's TV numbers are going to trump Nebraska's, of that I have little doubt.

I have looked at a lot of national record projections for Notre Dame and I think 10-2 is quite possible. I think they will win all of their home games and three of their roadies are at Purdue, Wake Forest and Maryland. I see them winning all three of those games, so there's nine wins. Remaining roadies with Stanford, Pitt and Michigan are up for debate, but I picked them to lose at Michigan.

I am going to go with a Notre Dame (or any other school that is in the mix there, for the sake of debate) and a non-AQ getting at large bids for one set of my Big Ten bowl projections.

Another factor that has to be considered is Wisconsin's position in the BCS title race. If they are 12-1 with a Big Ten title game win under their belt, it's hard to envision them being any lower than 3rd in the final BCS standings. Given I had them losing to MSU, that would be ending the season on a six game winning streak...and they will have moved up into the Top 5 or better in the rankings prior to that loss, and fallen no worse than 10th or 11th with a mid-season loss at Michigan State. I think that is plenty of time to move back up...

If there is a one-loss SEC team, that team will be in the BCS title game. History is on their side in that regard. Now, the Big 12 comes into play...they no longer have a conference title game...which means a lot in the BCS title game hunt, because it's one less chance for the best team in that league to lose a game and lose a spot in the big party...and the Big 12 has seen a few BCS title game 'shoe ins' lose in that title game and get knocked out of the BCS title race.

Since I haven't projected every record for every team in the nation, I can't go much further down this rabbit hole, which is why I am going to offer up a few scenarios and make Big Ten bowl projections based off of those scenarios.

A few things to note: The Insight picks ahead of the Gator Bowl this year. The Capital One, Outback, and Gator Bowls can select any eligible team except a team that has two fewer wins or two more losses than another eligible team. The Insight, Dallas Classic, Texas and Little Caesar's Pizza Bowls have no such restrictions, However, the bowls cannot select a 6–6 team if a 7–5 or better team is not selected by a Big Ten-affiliated bowl.

SCENARIO ONE: Wisconsin to Rose, Notre Dame (or other) gets BCS nod over Nebraska and Ohio State is eligible for a bowl

ROSE: Wisconsin
Cap One: Nebraska
Outback: Michigan
Insight: Ohio State
Gator: Iowa
Texas: Penn State
Dallas: Michigan State
Little Caesar's: Illinois
Left to at large bowl pool: Northwestern and Purdue

Notes: I think Michigan gets the nod over Ohio State due to their fans being happier to be 8-4 than Ohio State's fans would be, coming off the scandals and the ongoing NCAA investigation and the fact they have been to BCS bowls every year since the 2004 Alamo Bowl. You could say Penn State could get a Gator invite over Iowa due to the 'Joe Pa' factor, but Michigan State is going to go behind each of those programs as they disappoint at the gate more often than not.

IF Ohio State is not bowl eligible in the above scenario, then I think Penn State goes Insight and Iowa remains in the Gator.

SCENARIO TWO: Wisconsin and Nebraska get BCS bids, also called the 'Two Up' scenario

Rose: Wisconsin
BCS: Nebraska
Cap One: Michigan
Outback: Ohio State
Insight: Penn State
Gator: Iowa
Texas: Michigan State
Dallas: Illinois
Little Caesar's: Purdue
Left to the at large bowl pool: Northwestern

Notes: If OSU is not bowl eligible in this Two Up scenario, move Iowa to the Outback and everyone else up one slot, with Northwestern getting the Little Caesar's ticket.

In the event Wisconsin gets a shot at the National Title game, I think this rundown would also apply. The Rose Bowl would get one of the first two replacement picks and I believe they would take Nebraska.
 


Hmmm. I dont know Jon. Seems like an overvalue in Nebby to me, they have a D, ok, big deal. We dont play D in the B10? Question will be can Nebby's O hang 24-30 on B10 D's. 2 loss conf play? Also I dont see any team hitting 9-3? 5 teams with an 8-4?
I know what you saying thou, and give props to the job you did here. It is ALOT of work, we all appreciate it. I am surprised nobody has called you on a 8-4 Iowa yet thou. Me I am leaning toward a 9-3 and hoping with luck (and a very good Vandy) that could be a 10-2. It will be a tight one, and our last game could be the deciding factor, but I think we make an honest run for Indy this year.
 




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