I don't pay much attention to the "expert prognosticators" because I think they just predict the outcome of games and then go down the standings and line them up with the conference bowl tie-ins. However, this doesn't always match up because some teams don't travel and some teams have played in a bowl in recent years and while not a deal breaker, most bowls would prefer not to have the same team show up year after year. So like this year, no Outback for Iowa.
CFP - OSU. I dont see anyone beating them, and their 2 hardest games, Wisky and PSU are at home. 13-0
Rose - PSU. Will lose to OSU but win the rest. That leaves them 11-1 but no Indy.
At-large (Probably Orange) - Wisconsin. Lose to OSU today and in B1G championship. Finish at 10-3.
Citrus - Iowa. Lose to Wisconsin, win the rest. Finish season at 9-3.
Outback - Minnesota. Lose to PSU, Iowa and Wisconsin, finish at 9-3. Citrus nor Holiday wants them.
Holiday - Michigan. Lose to OSU and probably ND. Regardless, either a 9-3 or 8-4 team goes here because Citrus and Outback dont want them.
TaxSlayer Gator - This could also be the Music City Bowl, but more than like the TaxSlayer because of the swap they do. This can be anyone here, the best of the rest as the only 2 teams the TaxSlayer wouldnt want would be off the board. Probably MSU, but, the outcome of the Nebraska/Indiana game here has a lot to say about that.
Sidenote: If Nebraska does not beat Indiana today, they may not be bowl eligible. FYI
All games are important of course, but some are more important than others.
OSU/PSU. This will determine the East and the winner goes to Indy undefeated.
Minnesota games: PSU. If Minnesota beats PSU, it does not change the East, but Minnesota would finish with at most 2 losses instead of 3. That may be enough to vault Minnesota into at-large consideration over a 2 loss PSU team.
Iowa: If Minnesota beats Iowa that again ensures that they have only 2 losses while Iowa would have atleast 3 but probably 4. Puts them in at-large consideration.
Wisconsin: If Minnesota beats Wisconsin, but loses against both PSU and Iowa, that puts them in Indy more than likely. Now the drawback here is a third loss to OSU, to finish at 10-3.
As far as Iowa is concerned:
Winning out including the B1G championship game puts them in the Rose. Huge fallout here behind that, as the discussion will once again be around if a B1G team makes the playoff.
Losing to Wisconsin, winning the rest. Nice season, 9-3, puts us in the Citrus at best, Holiday at worst but I would bet on Citrus.
Losing to Wisconsin and Minnesota, winning the rest. 8-4. Probably Holiday, however, as stated above, Minnesota may jump in to at-large consideration and join Wisconsin, PSU and OSU in the top tier bowls. That may put Iowa, even at 8-4 in the Citrus.
Now who would we play after determining our most likely destinations are Citrus and Holiday, with an outside change at the Rose. That is either SEC or Pac 12.
SEC: There are 5 teams ranked in the top ten right now, but that all kind of play each other. 2 will more than likely make the playoff, 2 more than likely will make the NY6, and that leaves an odd man out. So take your pick between Florida, Auburn, LSU, Bama and Georgia. Our best hope here is that 3 of them make the NY6 and that leaves us with a more manageable Missouri or Texas A&M.
Pac 12: They just beat each other up so its hard to project these teams. Rose will be more than likely Oregon/USC/Utah winner, and the Holiday is their third bowl slot, which will probably be the third of these teams.
So there you go, book your tickets!
CFP - OSU. I dont see anyone beating them, and their 2 hardest games, Wisky and PSU are at home. 13-0
Rose - PSU. Will lose to OSU but win the rest. That leaves them 11-1 but no Indy.
At-large (Probably Orange) - Wisconsin. Lose to OSU today and in B1G championship. Finish at 10-3.
Citrus - Iowa. Lose to Wisconsin, win the rest. Finish season at 9-3.
Outback - Minnesota. Lose to PSU, Iowa and Wisconsin, finish at 9-3. Citrus nor Holiday wants them.
Holiday - Michigan. Lose to OSU and probably ND. Regardless, either a 9-3 or 8-4 team goes here because Citrus and Outback dont want them.
TaxSlayer Gator - This could also be the Music City Bowl, but more than like the TaxSlayer because of the swap they do. This can be anyone here, the best of the rest as the only 2 teams the TaxSlayer wouldnt want would be off the board. Probably MSU, but, the outcome of the Nebraska/Indiana game here has a lot to say about that.
Sidenote: If Nebraska does not beat Indiana today, they may not be bowl eligible. FYI
All games are important of course, but some are more important than others.
OSU/PSU. This will determine the East and the winner goes to Indy undefeated.
Minnesota games: PSU. If Minnesota beats PSU, it does not change the East, but Minnesota would finish with at most 2 losses instead of 3. That may be enough to vault Minnesota into at-large consideration over a 2 loss PSU team.
Iowa: If Minnesota beats Iowa that again ensures that they have only 2 losses while Iowa would have atleast 3 but probably 4. Puts them in at-large consideration.
Wisconsin: If Minnesota beats Wisconsin, but loses against both PSU and Iowa, that puts them in Indy more than likely. Now the drawback here is a third loss to OSU, to finish at 10-3.
As far as Iowa is concerned:
Winning out including the B1G championship game puts them in the Rose. Huge fallout here behind that, as the discussion will once again be around if a B1G team makes the playoff.
Losing to Wisconsin, winning the rest. Nice season, 9-3, puts us in the Citrus at best, Holiday at worst but I would bet on Citrus.
Losing to Wisconsin and Minnesota, winning the rest. 8-4. Probably Holiday, however, as stated above, Minnesota may jump in to at-large consideration and join Wisconsin, PSU and OSU in the top tier bowls. That may put Iowa, even at 8-4 in the Citrus.
Now who would we play after determining our most likely destinations are Citrus and Holiday, with an outside change at the Rose. That is either SEC or Pac 12.
SEC: There are 5 teams ranked in the top ten right now, but that all kind of play each other. 2 will more than likely make the playoff, 2 more than likely will make the NY6, and that leaves an odd man out. So take your pick between Florida, Auburn, LSU, Bama and Georgia. Our best hope here is that 3 of them make the NY6 and that leaves us with a more manageable Missouri or Texas A&M.
Pac 12: They just beat each other up so its hard to project these teams. Rose will be more than likely Oregon/USC/Utah winner, and the Holiday is their third bowl slot, which will probably be the third of these teams.
So there you go, book your tickets!
