Here's my thoughts from a stats perspective. My thoughts are worth exactly $0.00 btw.
1) I usually look for areas that are very lopsided between two teams. Rushing offense and rushing defense are both VERY lopsided in our favor.
Iowa is 13th in the country in rushing with 223 YPG and 14 TDs...MSU is 59th in rushing defense giving up 131 and 7 TDs. At this point in the season it's worth noting they also haven't faced an opponent with anywhere near Iowa's rushing attack. Not even close. This makes it even more lopsided than it is on paper.
Iowa is 17th in the country in rushing defense at 96 YPG allowed with only 1 rushing TD allowed. MSU rushing offense is 101st in the nation only averaging 120 YPG and 7 TDs on the year.
We need to run the ball down their throat early and often. This is IMO the most exploitable phase of the game, but MSU knows it and is going to stack that box like crazy. OL needs to be on their A-game.
2) Turnover margin...if you follow football whatsoever you know that the single most reliable statistic in the entire game is turnover margin. It's been academically studied and there's no other statistic that even comes close to being as correlated with win probablity. Iowa is currently at +1, MSU is way down the list at -1 average. For the non rocket scientists out there that's a net difference in Iowa's favor of +2. That's absolutely huge. If you look at the NCAA stats website you'll see there are very, very few matchups in D1AA football where two teams have a MGN of 2 TOs between them. We need to force fumbles and intercept some passes, and keep from doing the same. Iowa has turned the ball over 5 times this year total compared with MSU's 14 times. Can't stress enough that we need to hold onto the ball and force MSU to make mistakes throwing it because they won't be pounding the ground.
3) Kicking...we also know that in a close game, which this could be (night game on the road, MSU has nothing to lose), a field goal or two could be the difference. MSU's kicker is flat out good and a 5th year senior. He's not going to choke or get iced. He's 10/10 and here are his yardages...
50
37
33
23
36
41
26
51
27
42
He can put a 50 yarder through no problem, so the Iowa D has to keep MSU outside 35 yards at all costs. Especially because to this point we are terrible against red zone passes and we give out red zone TD passes like they're candy.
MSU is going to come right out of the gate throwing the ball and testing our secondary. If they play like the ISU game I think this game is over. If they play solid, I don't think there's a high probability that we lose.
