A little update on Arizona

[homerHAWKeye777]

Tuesday, Day 6, First Scrimmage - GOAZCATS.com Message Board


The "word" seems to be that the O is kicking some butt ... however, their D seems to be struggling.

Furthermore, there seems to be some concern about how an injury to their top H-back will potentially limit their offensive playbook. It sounds like even in the best case scenario, their H-back will only just barely be back for their first game. That could potentially set back the development of their O to some degree ... or at least limit how well they execute portions of their playbook.

Anyhow, I found it amusing how some of their fans thought that it should be considered "normal" for an O to be ahead of the D at this time of year. Quite the opposite, usually Ds are ahead of Os. Of course, given the experience-level of UA's O and the inexperience of their D ... it does make some sense.

Anyhow, this is really a game I'm VERY excited about.

 

[TecmoSuperHawk]

Good stuff Homer. I am very excited for this game too. I really think our offense will move the ball almost at will against their D, but it will be tough to shut down their O. They have some really good skill position players. I really think this will be a 35-28 type game.....with us coming out on top of course.

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

I think this sets up well for Iowa. I know it has been discussed before, but if Iowa can have even modest success running the ball, they become a very difficult team to beat.

This game doesn't worry me. How much does the ASU beat down from 2004 distort perceptions of the 2010 game? I get the time zone angle, I get the heat angle. Iowa played a lot of night games last year. They won on the road. They practice in extremely hot weather.

They have too much talent and experience (and focus) to drop this one. I'm more worried about an emotional let down at Kinnick during the grind of conference play.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Good stuff Homer. I am very excited for this game too. I really think our offense will move the ball almost at will against their D, but it will be tough to shut down their O. They have some really good skill position players. I really think this will be a 35-28 type game.....with us coming out on top of course.

Given what Iowa's D brings to the table, I have trouble seeing UA score 28 points.

I could frankly envision a bunch of different possible scenarios playing out ... however, pretty much all of them result in Iowa winning. I could see anything from a 27-24 Iowa victory (a close Iowa victory) to a 33-7 drubbing of the Wildcats. If Iowa's D can get to Foles ... then Iowa will dominate the field position battle ... and that then would perfectly play into the hands of Ferentz and Co. Otherwise, I expect a dogfight.

 

[racerhawk]

Thanks for the update, Homer. I'm really excited for this game for two reasons:

1. It should be a great matchup.
2. I'm going to the game

 

[8then88]

Homer - I see this the same way. If our front four gets to the QB early and often, it could be a long day for the Wildcats. I like the matchup, IMO it was one of the better games the Hawks played last year against a very good team.

 

[SheagleHawk]

Good stuff Homer. I am very excited for this game too. I really think our offense will move the ball almost at will against their D, but it will be tough to shut down their O. They have some really good skill position players. I really think this will be a 35-28 type game.....with us coming out on top of course.

I don't think they put up 28 on us. We only gave up an average of 14pt/gm last year. With nearly everyone returning on D, points should be pretty hard to come by.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

I think this sets up well for Iowa. I know it has been discussed before, but if Iowa can have even modest success running the ball, they become a very difficult team to beat.

This game doesn't worry me. How much does the ASU beat down from 2004 distort perceptions of the 2010 game? I get the time zone angle, I get the heat angle. Iowa played a lot of night games last year. They won on the road. They practice in extremely hot weather.

They have too much talent and experience (and focus) to drop this one. I'm more worried about an emotional let down at Kinnick during the grind of conference play.

Sports fans are notoriously bad at getting caught up on non-causal correlations.

Many Iowa fans seem to forget that the beatdown that ASU put on the Hawks had many factors playing into it ... factors that were FAR MORE causal.

- ASU had the revenge factor going for them because Iowa embarrassed the sun devils in '03. In contrast, the Wildcats didn't really embarrass themselves in 2010. The revenge factor was an intangible advantage that ASU smartly capitalized on.

- The '04 ASU game was Tate's first game starting in a hostile environment. Furthermore, at that early juncture, the Iowa O hadn't yet adjusted to Tate's strengths.

- Both Luebke and Babs each only had around a half season of prior DT starts under their belts. Furthermore, DRob was a first year starter at DE. A key point of emphasis here is that the ASU game marked a game where Iowa's DL played with poor technique ... and that played a HUGE part in the drubbing. I can only rationalize the poor technique because the group hadn't yet played much together as a group (at their respective positions).

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Now, if you contrast the scenario heading into the '04 ASU game to the '10 UA game ... there are very few similarities. One of the very few similarities is that the both games were/are night games in the state of Arizona.

 

[TecmoSuperHawk]

I don't think they put up 28 on us. We only gave up an average of 14pt/gm last year. With nearly everyone returning on D, points should be pretty hard to come by.

Well Michigan put up 28 points on us last year and I think Arizona's offense is better than Michigan's from last year. I'm not predicting Arizona will score 28 points, but I think it will be higher scoring than most think.

 

[hoffman22103]

I honestly don't see this being as close as the final score will probably make it look. The defense played lights out last year against this offense. I mean take away the stansix and the late touchdown at the end of the game and that final score is 27-3. I don't think Iowa puts up that much, but I think it'll be something like 21 or 24 (Iowa)-10 or 14 (AZ) as a final.

 

[imported_ankle23]

Sports fans are notoriously bad at getting caught up on non-causal correlations.

Many Iowa fans seem to forget that the beatdown that ASU put on the Hawks had many factors playing into it ... factors that were FAR MORE causal.

- ASU had the revenge factor going for them because Iowa embarrassed the sun devils in '03. In contrast, the Wildcats didn't really embarrass themselves in 2010. The revenge factor was an intangible advantage that ASU smartly capitalized on.

- The '04 ASU game was Tate's first game starting in a hostile environment. Furthermore, at that early juncture, the Iowa O hadn't yet adjusted to Tate's strengths.

- Both Luebke and Babs each only had around a half season of prior DT starts under their belts. Furthermore, DRob was a first year starter at DE. A key point of emphasis here is that the ASU game marked a game where Iowa's DL played with poor technique ... and that played a HUGE part in the drubbing. I can only rationalize the poor technique because the group hadn't yet played much together as a group (at their respective positions).

Also - didn't Norm not make the game?

And, it doesn't rain in AZ, and the game was rain delayed more like lightning delayed, further messing with a schedule or routine that is important in away games.

Lots of factors, but i think the main one was that ASU had the game circled and wanted Iowa so much that they focused more on Iowa in the offseason than other teams (i can't remember exactly how much, etc., but that came out in the press from their coaching staff).

 

[NeilDiamond]

I honestly don't see this being as close as the final score will probably make it look. The defense played lights out last year against this offense. I mean take away the stansix and the late touchdown at the end of the game and that final score is 27-3. I don't think Iowa puts up that much, but I think it'll be something like 21 or 24 (Iowa)-10 or 14 (AZ) as a final.

Agreed it won't be close. I am looking for Iowa to put its foot in that A%$, something like 35-10. Unless this team has a good defense, which all indicators are that they don't, they are going to lose. We will score at least 3-4 touchdowns and I cannot see our defense giving that up.

 

[IATrainMaster101]

I this is a game where Iowa needs to keeps its foot on the accelerator offensively. I think iowa has a real good chance to strike Early. If we get conservative with a lead it will turn out bad. If we play the whole game like we are playing from behind a touchdown, we'll be more than fine.

 

[briankaldenberg]

Outside of @ Iowa State last year, @ Iowa State in 2003 and @ Miami (OH) in 2003 when during the Ferentz era have we ever gone on the road in non-conference play and blown people out. Instead we've lost @ Iowa State four times, got absolutely embarrassed at ASU, embarrassed at Nebraska (2000 though), lost @ Pittsburgh, barely won @ Syracuse in OT.

I expect nothing but a very close, probably low scoring game. Iowa wins 20 - 17.

 

[hawkeyescott]

Outside of @ Iowa State last year, @ Iowa State in 2003 and @ Miami (OH) in 2003 when during the Ferentz era have we ever gone on the road in non-conference play and blown people out. Instead we've lost @ Iowa State four times, got absolutely embarrassed at ASU, embarrassed at Nebraska (2000 though), lost @ Pittsburgh, barely won @ Syracuse in OT.

I expect nothing but a very close, probably low scoring game. Iowa wins 20 - 17.

This is a very good point. That Pitt game still pisses me off, if RS plays the 2nd half Iowa wins that game, but KF wanted to give JC every opportunity and this was his worst coaching job IMO while at Iowa.

 

[DDHawkeye]

If The Ferentz is feeling particularly merciful that day, Arizona might score on a late field goal, after we block the first two or three attempts of course. Obviously our offense will score at will against their so-called "defense." I think we will win by a score of about 35-0. Maybe 35-3 if The Ferentz is a merciful Ferentz that day.

 

[deanvogs]

Outside of @ Iowa State last year, @ Iowa State in 2003 and @ Miami (OH) in 2003 when during the Ferentz era have we ever gone on the road in non-conference play and blown people out. Instead we've lost @ Iowa State four times, got absolutely embarrassed at ASU, embarrassed at Nebraska (2000 though), lost @ Pittsburgh, barely won @ Syracuse in OT.

I expect nothing but a very close, probably low scoring game. Iowa wins 20 - 17.

Completely different teams, with completely different players. The one thing we can say about this group of kids, is that playing on the road just didn't bother them last year. Stanzi and Co. played their best ball on the road really. Did Stanzi throw a pick 6 away from home? I know he did in the OB, but I don't think he threw another one on the road.

The only relevant road game you quote is Pitt, and I would bet that Stanzi starting that game, we win by 10. We out gained them by over 100 yards, we had the ball for 35 min compared to their 25. What we didn't have was a leader behind center to take and win the game.....

 

[HawkeyeMike23]

Completely different teams, with completely different players. The one thing we can say about this group of kids, is that playing on the road just didn't bother them last year. Stanzi and Co. played their best ball on the road really. Did Stanzi throw a pick 6 away from home? I know he did in the OB, but I don't think he threw another one on the road.

The only relevant road game you quote is Pitt, and I would bet that Stanzi starting that game, we win by 10. We out gained them by over 100 yards, we had the ball for 35 min compared to their 25. What we didn't have was a leader behind center to take and win the game.....

Agreed. Another huge difference is in almost all of the games we did not have an established starting QB. Even the ISU game where Tate started, he got knocked out early. The ASU game was his first career road game. The Syracuse OT win was Manson filling in, the Pitt game saw both Jake and Stanzi see action. Going on the road with a QB who is 18-4 and has experienced skill players all around him will make a huge difference. I like Iowa to win by at least 14, and probably more.

 

[IMAHawkeye2]

Given what Iowa's D brings to the table, I have trouble seeing UA score 28 points.

I could frankly envision a bunch of different possible scenarios playing out ... however, pretty much all of them result in Iowa winning. I could see anything from a 27-24 Iowa victory (a close Iowa victory) to a 33-7 drubbing of the Wildcats. If Iowa's D can get to Foles ... then Iowa will dominate the field position battle ... and that then would perfectly play into the hands of Ferentz and Co. Otherwise, I expect a dogfight.

Homer I just can not believe any team is going to score 30 points on Iowa defense this year. Also isn't Arizona team more a run first team and not a team that possess a great ariel attack? I thought ASU was the high flying ariel attack and Stoops was more about rushing the ball. If that is the case I do not see Arizona scoring 21 points unless they have FG kicker that will busy and have to kick frequently. Norm defenses are known to shut down the run.