8-10 Makes Tourney

[IndianaHawk]

Help me out here. Why is an Illinois team at 8-10 even in the discussion as a bubble team. Maybe my memory is off, but 10-8 teams have regularly been left out and 9-9 teams are very rare to get in. Why would 8-10 in a poor conference magically be the first to make it in?

 

[revkev73]

refs...

 

[ssckelley]

Because their SOS is 24, RPI is 58, and they got hot at the end of the year. I'd have a bigger beef about Illinois being a bubble team had Iowa not lost to them twice.

 

[koralakers]

It's strange. And the 'eyeball test' says their OOC schedule wasn't any tougher than ours, as well as in-conference schedule.

 

[theboat]

RPI is a result of who you play, not who you beat

 

[SteveGarvey1]

ISU made it one year in the old Big 8 with a 5-9 conference record. It happens.

 

[PCHawk]

It's strange. And the 'eyeball test' says their OOC schedule wasn't any tougher than ours, as well as in-conference schedule.

With so much parity in basketball these days, there can be a 30 spot difference in strength of schedule without there being any difference at all in actual toughness of schedule. That's why a team like Vanderbilt getting in is stupid. All they have is strength of schedule and was it really even any harder?

 

[ibahawkeye]

ILL has played 5 ranked teams and lost them all.
Iowa has played 7 ranked teams and won 4, 2 of which were road wins.
2 head to head losses kill

I really don't see any scenario in which ILL and Iowa were both to get in the Big dance.

MSU is still labeled as a bubble but I think they will beat Penn State and with their brand recognition that will be enough to get in making for 7 teams in the Big 10. They aren't sending 9 teams from a Big 10 conference that had a national perception of being down this year. Go Blue!!

 

[ssckelley]

It's strange. And the 'eyeball test' says their OOC schedule wasn't any tougher than ours, as well as in-conference schedule.

Of the bottom 5 in the Big Ten the only team they played twice was Penn State. In their OOC they played no one with an RPI above 300 while Iowa played 3 of them. The only OOC team they played that really hurt their SOS/RPI was Detroit and Missouri, and Missouri doesn't hurt all that bad since they play in the SEC plus it was a win at a neutral location.

 

[FirstDownHawkeyes]

If Iowa beats IN and WI, none of this matters. They will be in no matter what else happens. If they beat IN and lose to WI, everything else needs to fall Iowa's way and the game vs WI needs to be close. I think it's that simple.

 

[DDThompson]

Big10 is not a poor conference.

They have two wins OOC against #1 seeds.
Iowa doesn't.

It sucks. Because Indiana isn't the same team that won those games.

Iowa isn't the same team from three weeks ago.

 

[PCHawk]

Of the bottom 5 in the Big Ten the only team they played twice was Penn State. In their OOC they played no one with an RPI above 300 while Iowa played 3 of them. The only OOC team they played that really hurt their SOS/RPI was Detroit and Missouri, and Missouri doesn't hurt all that bad since they play in the SEC plus it was a win at a neutral location.

It always comes down to the 300 rpi teams. I hope the committee is starting to realize that once you get past 200 or 250, it really doesn't matter much. Has the "losses over 200 rpi" stat always been there? I don't remember ever seeing it before. It gives me hope that they realize that once you get into the terrible team category, it really doesn't matter how far down they are.

 

[mopkins]

Really need Illinois to lose to Michigan today at 11am. I think a loss there will knock Illinois out for sure.

 

[SpiderRico]

Couple of things here:

1. Conference record plays no bearing on getting in or not, by itself....only as an overall body of work.
2. In this day and age of unbalanced schedules, it matters even less now. One team could be 8-10 in the conference and another could be 11-7 and the 8-10 team could have a better conference RPI if they played the bottom feeders only once and all the top conference teams twice.
3. You get hit worse in RPI by playing 250+ RPI teams, than the bounce you get by playing Top 50 RPI teams. That's why Iowa's RPI isn't as good as others, even though we may have beaten more Top 50 teams....those three 300+ RPI teams we played just KILLED us this year. Had we replaced those 3 with Top 150 teams, we'd probably be at least 20 points better in our RPI ranking....with no more real risk in losing.
4. Rumor has it that this committee is going to put more emphasis on Top 50 wins than on "bad" losses. This bodes pretty well for Iowa as they have one of the better Top 50 records of the bubble teams.

 

[revkev73]

Beat Indiana...then we can talk

 

[ssckelley]

It always comes down to the 300 rpi teams. I hope the committee is starting to realize that once you get past 200 or 250, it really doesn't matter much. Has the "losses over 200 rpi" stat always been there? I don't remember ever seeing it before. It gives me hope that they realize that once you get into the terrible team category, it really doesn't matter how far down they are.

It's not about the rank it's their win percentage and their opponents win percentage which makes up 25% of the RPI score. The difference between playing teams with a 8-23 record ranked 250 like Missouri and one ranked 322 with a 8-22 record like Delaware State is their opponents record. Missouri gets a boost because it plays in the SEC while Delaware State plays in the MEAC. This is why you're better off playing a crappy opponent from a power 5 or mid major than someone from a low major. Playing those teams from low major conferences kills your RPI.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I think Illinois losing to Rutgers has them in the same position as Iowa...and lots of other teams around the country. Illinois has to beat Michigan to have a chance. They have to beat Purdue to be comfortable IMO.

 

[PCHawk]

It's not about the rank it's their win percentage and their opponents win percentage which makes up 25% of the RPI score. The difference between playing teams with a 8-23 record ranked 250 like Missouri and one ranked 322 with a 8-22 record like Delaware State is their opponents record. Missouri gets a boost because it plays in the SEC while Delaware State plays in the MEAC. This is why you're better off playing a crappy opponent from a power 5 or mid major than someone from a low major. Playing those teams from low major conferences kills your RPI.

Is it because most teams from low majors pretty much lose every non conference game? So when it comes to conference time, they can only play teams who have lost all non conference games? Where as a bad team from a power 5 losses most conference games, but at least they lose to teams who won most non conference games?

So a 300 team becomes a 300 team by playing in a conference who losses all of their non conference games then losses all the in conference games to the teams who lost all their non conference games. Where as a 200 rpi team comes from a conference who wins more non conference games (against terrible teams more than likely), then finishes somewhere in the middle of their weak but not terrible conference.

The question is, does Fran really want to play a few god awful teams, or does the schedule just get to the point where you need to fill it but there aren't any takers?

 

[ssckelley]

Is it because most teams from low majors pretty much lose every non conference game? So when it comes to conference time, they can only play teams who have lost all non conference games? Where as a bad team from a power 5 losses most conference games, but at least they lose to teams who won most non conference games?

So a 300 team becomes a 300 team by playing in a conference who losses all of their non conference games then losses all the in conference games to the teams who lost all their non conference games. Where as a 200 rpi team comes from a conference who wins more non conference games (against terrible teams more than likely), then finishes somewhere in the middle of their weak but not terrible conference.

uhhh....yep...I think you got it.

The question is, does Fran really want to play a few god awful teams, or does the schedule just get to the point where you need to fill it but there aren't any takers?

Part of it is you want to schedule games with teams that don't require a home game in return. I would think they could find enough teams from the area mid majors like the Summit League or the Missouri Valley to keep from having to schedule teams from the MEAC.

 

[WindsorHawk]

And the Illinois bubble bursts...