NoBeer
Well-Known Member
LONG thread but I like this kind of mental exercise.
I [think] it came up in the podcast this week, this concept of how Iowa frequently just can't get any offense going and what would happen if they could score 3-4 more points per game. Either score that touchdown instead of settling for a field goal or get in field goal range instead of punting etc.
CAVEAT: None of this matters. I KNOW that. Every team would love to score 4 more points every game. Are there other teams out there like Iowa that tend to lose a lot of close games? Probably some. I don't know how many. Maybe Iowa is in the top 5 in close losses. Are there other teams that lose close ones when the score is like 16-17? Again, probably some but I think not nearly as many. THAT is where being able to score a few more points really changes games, because you have a defense that did its job as Iowa frequently has had. When you lose 45-48, your defense didn't really do its job IMO.
There is no way to know what would have happened in a game like this year's Wisconsin game where going up 21-14 instead of 17-14 changes the entire game. You can't know. But, what I documented below, is what the change to our record based ONLY on final score would be in the Ferentz era if we scored 4 more points. I think its safe to assume we would have won SOME more games based on circumstances like being up two touchdowns instead of 10 points. With all that said:
1) Only actual wins by final score are being counted.
2) I've added commentary where there were games we lost by 5-7 that I think could have swung the other way because of the impact of going up by 3 scores vs. 2 or going up by 2 touchdowns instead of a TD and fieldgoal. But I'm not counting them
3) There are a number ties so I'm counting those as a half a win assuming you'd split them over a large enough sample.
1999 from 1-10 to 2-9-1 (+1.5 win)
2000 from 3-9 to 4-8 (+1 win)
2001 from 7-5 to 9-3 (+2)
2002 11-2 no change although this would be a year I would challenge how the ISU game looks different if we scored a TD instead of a FG early in the game)
2003 10-3 no change. We had one 9pt and one 10pt loss. Maybe you win one of those due to the "situational" aspect.
2004 10-2 no change. The two losses were pretty big blowouts.
2005 from 7-5 to 9-3 (+2) with that horrendously officiated Outback Bowl loss to Florida.
2006 from 6-7 to 10-3. (+4) WOW. Lost 4 games by less than 3 points.
2007 from 6-6 to 7-4-1 (+1.5)
2008 from 9-4 to 12-1 (+3) with another 5 point loss I'm not counting.
2009 from 11-2 to 12-1 (+1)
2010 from 8-5 to 11-1-1 (+3.5)
2011 from 7-6 to 9-4 (+2)
2012 from 4-8 to 8-4 (+4)
2013 from 8-5 to 9-4 (+1)
2014 from 7-6 to 10-3 (+3)
2015 from 12-2 to 13-1 (+1)
2016 from 8-5 to 9-4 (+1)
2017 from 8-5 to 9-4 (+1)
So in the Ferentz era, we lost 32.5 games by 4 points or less. In several years, these are completely different season that I think vastly rewrites the history of the program but this is just a mental exercise so it doesn't matter.
The second thing I wanted to take a closer look at was that I think Deace was actually trying to make a point about how many games Iowa has lost by scoring like 21-24 points when 27 would have meant a win. So a game Iowa lost 34-35 wouldn't count in that situation as Iowa already scored more than their average. So going back through and looking at Iowa losses where we scored UNDER 30 and +4 points would have meant a win.
1999 Northwestern 21-23 (+1)
2000 Minnesota 21-23 (+1)
2001 MSU 28-31, Iowa State 14-17 (+2)
2005 Michigan 20-31, Northwester 27-28 (+2)
2006 all four losses we scored less than 30 (+4)
2007 both games we scored less than 30 (+1.5)
2008 all three games (+3)
2009 OSU 24-27 (+1)
2010 3 of the 4 we scored less than 30 but one would have been the tie so call it (+2.5)
2011 one of the losses was ISU 41-44 so it doesn't qualify for this exercise so (+1) instead of +2 above.
2012 three of the four games qualify as we scored under 30. (+3)
2013 (+1)
2014 two of the three losses qualify as we scored under 30 (+2)
2015 we would have won the B1G had we scored 4 more (+1)
2016 would have beat NDSU (+1)
2017 would have beaten PSU at home (+1)
That's 28 games where we lost by less than four and scored less than 30
I [think] it came up in the podcast this week, this concept of how Iowa frequently just can't get any offense going and what would happen if they could score 3-4 more points per game. Either score that touchdown instead of settling for a field goal or get in field goal range instead of punting etc.
CAVEAT: None of this matters. I KNOW that. Every team would love to score 4 more points every game. Are there other teams out there like Iowa that tend to lose a lot of close games? Probably some. I don't know how many. Maybe Iowa is in the top 5 in close losses. Are there other teams that lose close ones when the score is like 16-17? Again, probably some but I think not nearly as many. THAT is where being able to score a few more points really changes games, because you have a defense that did its job as Iowa frequently has had. When you lose 45-48, your defense didn't really do its job IMO.
There is no way to know what would have happened in a game like this year's Wisconsin game where going up 21-14 instead of 17-14 changes the entire game. You can't know. But, what I documented below, is what the change to our record based ONLY on final score would be in the Ferentz era if we scored 4 more points. I think its safe to assume we would have won SOME more games based on circumstances like being up two touchdowns instead of 10 points. With all that said:
1) Only actual wins by final score are being counted.
2) I've added commentary where there were games we lost by 5-7 that I think could have swung the other way because of the impact of going up by 3 scores vs. 2 or going up by 2 touchdowns instead of a TD and fieldgoal. But I'm not counting them
3) There are a number ties so I'm counting those as a half a win assuming you'd split them over a large enough sample.
1999 from 1-10 to 2-9-1 (+1.5 win)
2000 from 3-9 to 4-8 (+1 win)
2001 from 7-5 to 9-3 (+2)
2002 11-2 no change although this would be a year I would challenge how the ISU game looks different if we scored a TD instead of a FG early in the game)
2003 10-3 no change. We had one 9pt and one 10pt loss. Maybe you win one of those due to the "situational" aspect.
2004 10-2 no change. The two losses were pretty big blowouts.
2005 from 7-5 to 9-3 (+2) with that horrendously officiated Outback Bowl loss to Florida.
2006 from 6-7 to 10-3. (+4) WOW. Lost 4 games by less than 3 points.
2007 from 6-6 to 7-4-1 (+1.5)
2008 from 9-4 to 12-1 (+3) with another 5 point loss I'm not counting.
2009 from 11-2 to 12-1 (+1)
2010 from 8-5 to 11-1-1 (+3.5)
2011 from 7-6 to 9-4 (+2)
2012 from 4-8 to 8-4 (+4)
2013 from 8-5 to 9-4 (+1)
2014 from 7-6 to 10-3 (+3)
2015 from 12-2 to 13-1 (+1)
2016 from 8-5 to 9-4 (+1)
2017 from 8-5 to 9-4 (+1)
So in the Ferentz era, we lost 32.5 games by 4 points or less. In several years, these are completely different season that I think vastly rewrites the history of the program but this is just a mental exercise so it doesn't matter.
The second thing I wanted to take a closer look at was that I think Deace was actually trying to make a point about how many games Iowa has lost by scoring like 21-24 points when 27 would have meant a win. So a game Iowa lost 34-35 wouldn't count in that situation as Iowa already scored more than their average. So going back through and looking at Iowa losses where we scored UNDER 30 and +4 points would have meant a win.
1999 Northwestern 21-23 (+1)
2000 Minnesota 21-23 (+1)
2001 MSU 28-31, Iowa State 14-17 (+2)
2005 Michigan 20-31, Northwester 27-28 (+2)
2006 all four losses we scored less than 30 (+4)
2007 both games we scored less than 30 (+1.5)
2008 all three games (+3)
2009 OSU 24-27 (+1)
2010 3 of the 4 we scored less than 30 but one would have been the tie so call it (+2.5)
2011 one of the losses was ISU 41-44 so it doesn't qualify for this exercise so (+1) instead of +2 above.
2012 three of the four games qualify as we scored under 30. (+3)
2013 (+1)
2014 two of the three losses qualify as we scored under 30 (+2)
2015 we would have won the B1G had we scored 4 more (+1)
2016 would have beat NDSU (+1)
2017 would have beaten PSU at home (+1)
That's 28 games where we lost by less than four and scored less than 30
