Oregon 6.5 point favorite

[dagdaj]

Counterpoint...sometimes we have a special season when things just come together. Could this be it? We are due, it hasn't happened in a decade.

I don't think there's anything super special about this season. Even if they win out. And Oregon win and win out is awesome. And maybe it involves playoffs. Which is crazy.I think it's just stupid that it os theoretically possible for them to win out...get into the playoffs, and theoretically win the national title and not even not win the conference championship....but not even play in the conference championship.

Regardless, this will always be a memorable season. At this point because of Wetjen/Minnesota/PSU. Simply because the last memories of immediate previous seasons are filled with a dichotomy of disbelief and frustration.

If more things happen? Beat Oregon? Win out?
A bit of cherry on a sundae. Just gets better.

There's still up to 3 losses on the table. It'll be sour if they lose two of those..with one of them Nebrasska.

But, still...a hope inducing year with memories.

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

Not super special even if they win out?!

Dude, that’ll be one of the all-timer seasons. 8-1 in this new 18 team big ten? Kicking the absolute shit out of Minnesota and Wisconsin, beating Nebraska? Taking down Penn State, Oregon, and USC?

And very, very likely knocking on the door of hosting a playoff game on Dec 19 or 20, which would instantly vie for the biggest sport event ever held in Iowa City.

In my lifetime, only ‘85 would compare.

 

[dagdaj]

Not super special even if they win out?!

Dude, that’ll be one of the all-timer seasons. 8-1 in this new 18 team big ten? Kicking the absolute shit out of Minnesota and Wisconsin, beating Nebraska? Taking down Penn State, Oregon, and USC?

And very, very likely knocking on the door of hosting a playoff game on Dec 19 or 20, which would instantly vie for the biggest sport event ever held in Iowa City.

In my lifetime, only ‘85 would compare.

As much as I want Iowa in the playoffs...I hate the playoffs.
Win your conference.
Failing that, contend for it. Even contending for it is exceptional.

The back door entrance this year is highly unlikely. If it happens, I'm happy to revisit. Even then, I think you're right about being 3rd place in this Big 10 is different than 3rd place in the older Big 10s and I need to re evaluate that a bit.

Also...As I've noted before...I prefer to be the pessimist. So I am prepared for negative outcomes. On the other hand, positive results feel even better.

 

[NCHawker]

I like our chances but won't be shocked with a loss. Could be really amazing guys.

USC in the Coliseum is more concerning. They're a different team at home.

 

[BigD]

Counterpoint...sometimes we have a special season when things just come together. Could this be it? We are due, it hasn't happened in a decade.

Of course I hope this is the case, and to say we are due is obvious. The last two times we played as West division champs we got our asses handed to us.

We all know that once they did away with divisions any attention we would have got went away.

Indiana shows it can be done despite the naysayers who have said the opposite. Their program has always been a step lower than Iowa's and so if they can rebuilt a hapless football program there is no reason IOWA cant do it.

I have been vocal for many years now about this but the "we are little ole Iowa" crowd opposed making any changes to the situation out of fear of dropping our great status from a second tier program to a bottom tier program.

No guts no glory has always been my motto, not only for my favorite and lifetime sports teams, but also the way I have always lived my life. That's why I got promoted over thousands in my profession. Was it nerve racking? YEP. Was it risky? YEP. However I went for it and got promoted over thousands of other federal employee. So, I wasn't talking out of my ass.

Congrat's to the Indiana administration for bringing success to their team and to their fans. They could have just sit put out of fear. Their last coach was solid, but over time the powers that be over there just said it's time for a change and it has paid off big time.

It's time for Kirk to do or die against Oregon. I was talking to my youngest son about things. He said to me "Watch Iowa beat Oregon and then lose to some low life big ten program after that".

Yeah that's happen before in Iowa football. Beat a top five football team "Michigan" on a last second field goal and climb to #! in the country just to lose to a nobody bottom feeder big ten football program after that. It was nice though to be rated #1 in the country for a few days that season. Under Hayden of course.

 

[Gibsonian]

 

[Hawke]

View attachment 11675

If it quacked like a duck…

 

[thedukeofearl]

View attachment 11675

Is that poor liddle Huey, Dewey or Louie

 

[haydensly]

On ESPN Bet the line has moved to 5.5.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

On ESPN Bet the line has moved to 5.5.

I like it.. Begging for action. What's the weather shaping up to be?

 

[NorthKCHawk]

Iowa points allowed this season against...

Albany (FCS) - 7
ISU (5-3 record) - 16
UMASS (0-8 record) - 7
Rutgers (4-4 record) - 28
Indiana (8-0 record) - 20
Wisconsin (2-6 record) - 0
PSU (3-4 record) - 24
Minnesota (5-3 record) - 3

The trendline is obviously positive. If anything, Rutgers is a bit of an outlier, but there was a lead causing Rutgers to have to score.

The two best comparators are Indiana and PSU. Both have talented players on offense, and both of those games were in Kinnick. We probably held Indiana lower than we normally would have and gave PSU a few too many breaks (and one of the scores was the FG). I think it is reasonable to believe Iowa could hold the Ducks to 21, but that is about the best I can hope for. This is a very good defense, but I can't call it a great defense by Iowa standards of late.

 

[Fryowa]

The trendline is obviously positive. If anything, Rutgers is a bit of an outlier, but there was a lead causing Rutgers to have to score.

The two best comparators are Indiana and PSU. Both have talented players on offense, and both of those games were in Kinnick. We probably held Indiana lower than we normally would have and gave PSU a few too many breaks (and one of the scores was the FG). I think it is reasonable to believe Iowa could hold the Ducks to 21, but that is about the best I can hope for. This is a very good defense, but I can't call it a great defense by Iowa standards of late.

Also, I saw a stat yesterday that as of right now, B1G teams travelling two time zones or more cover the spread 29.3% of the time. That's significant.

That's why I've told people I'm way more worried about USC than Oregon. If I'm Beth Goetz I'm sending the team down there Wednesday evening after practice and dealing with the blowback later. Rent 3 floors of a Marriott with some conference rooms, and have my film guys and support staff down there early to get everything set up and ready to roll like it would be at home.

 

[haydensly]

I like it.. Begging for action. What's the weather shaping up to be?

Temperatures in the mid 50s with a slight chance of rain. And winds at 10-15 mph but in Kinnick that doesn't seem to affect things too much.

 

[Fryowa]

Temperatures in the mid 50s with a slight chance of rain. And winds at 10-15 mph but in Kinnick that doesn't seem to affect things too much.

The only forecast I've seen so far is 100% chance of pain.

 

[Fryowa]

Of course I hope this is the case, and to say we are due is obvious. The last two times we played as West division champs we got our asses handed to us.

We all know that once they did away with divisions any attention we would have got went away.

Indiana shows it can be done despite the naysayers who have said the opposite. Their program has always been a step lower than Iowa's and so if they can rebuilt a hapless football program there is no reason IOWA cant do it.

I have been vocal for many years now about this but the "we are little ole Iowa" crowd opposed making any changes to the situation out of fear of dropping our great status from a second tier program to a bottom tier program.

No guts no glory has always been my motto, not only for my favorite and lifetime sports teams, but also the way I have always lived my life. That's why I got promoted over thousands in my profession. Was it nerve racking? YEP. Was it risky? YEP. However I went for it and got promoted over thousands of other federal employee. So, I wasn't talking out of my ass.

Congrat's to the Indiana administration for bringing success to their team and to their fans. They could have just sit put out of fear. Their last coach was solid, but over time the powers that be over there just said it's time for a change and it has paid off big time.

It's time for Kirk to do or die against Oregon. I was talking to my youngest son about things. He said to me "Watch Iowa beat Oregon and then lose to some low life big ten program after that".

Yeah that's happen before in Iowa football. Beat a top five football team "Michigan" on a last second field goal and climb to #! in the country just to lose to a nobody bottom feeder big ten football program after that. It was nice though to be rated #1 in the country for a few days that season. Under Hayden of course.

Your mindset is EXACTLY what got nebraska and Wisconsin into their situations.

Like carbon copy, verbatim the same. And what's funny is if Iowa fired Kurt and ended up with a Frost/Fickell/Rhule/etc. and tanked, you'd be the first one out there pissed off about it saying, "Fire this guy! Do it again! There's no way Iowa should have to settle for losing!" And then the next guy and the next guy. You're so nebraska it ain't even funny. Talk about someone who can't see the forest for the trees.

Hell, you can't even see the tree for the leaf.

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

Also, I saw a stat yesterday that as of right now, B1G teams travelling two time zones or more cover the spread 29.3% of the time. That's significant.

That's why I've told people I'm way more worried about USC than Oregon. If I'm Beth Goetz I'm sending the team down there Wednesday evening after practice and dealing with the blowback later. Rent 3 floors of a Marriott with some conference rooms, and have my film guys and support staff down there early to get everything set up and ready to roll like it would be at home.

The USC game will obviously be tricky, but what gives me hope is that I'm not all that impressed with Lincoln Riley as a coach. They seem inconsistent, and not particularly tough. I'm convincing myself that Iowa is the opposite. The Hawks are showing they can consistently run the ball, the D has been consistent lately if nothing else, and they should be the tougher team on both lines.

That said, what's the path for beating Oregon? What do I need to convince myself of?

 

[Fryowa]

The USC game will obviously be tricky, but what gives me hope is that I'm not all that impressed with Lincoln Riley as a coach. They seem inconsistent, and not particularly tough. I'm convincing myself that Iowa is the opposite. The Hawks are showing they can consistently run the ball, the D has been consistent lately if nothing else, and they should be the tougher team on both lines.

That said, what's the path for beating Oregon? What do I need to convince myself of?

Don't make mistakes and win the turnover MGN. In my opinion those are the two most important things. Iowa has the best special teams around, and one of the best defenses in the country. If Iowa can create more turnovers than it gives up and not make dumb mistakes they'll win.

Oregon is going to have to think long and hard about punting the ball at Wetjen, and Iowa's defense has the edge when it comes to forcing them into yardage situations that take away the choice to punt.

Iowa is #1 in the country with 19 penalties and 183 penalty yards, Oregon is 20th with 38 penalties for 327 yds. If you can keep that ratio where it's at or better, there's another part of it.

Hawks need to stay completely mistake free and have at least two forced turnovers to win this game. Lutmer and Hall have to break things up, Graves and Llewellyn need to get to their QB, and MG needs to not throw any picks (and stay uninjured).

That's a huge ask. Like I said in a previous post, I'm expecting a loss, hoping for a close score, and will be pleasantly surprised with a win.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

Your mindset is EXACTLY what got nebraska and Wisconsin into their situations.

Like carbon copy, verbatim the same. And what's funny is if Iowa fired Kurt and ended up with a Frost/Fickell/Rhule/etc. and tanked, you'd be the first one out there pissed off about it saying, "Fire this guy! Do it again! There's no way Iowa should have to settle for losing!" And then the next guy and the next guy. You're so nebraska it ain't even funny. Talk about someone who can't see the forest for the trees.

Hell, you can't even see the tree for the leaf.

I agree with everything you say in this post except putting Matt Rhule on that list. He has been a good hire and scraped Nebbie off the floor and made them semi-respectable. Hell, they were ranked two weeks ago. Frankly, I was hoping PSU would poach him so Nebbie would have to start over again with someone less competent. Putting him in with Frost and Fickell is not a fair statement.

 

[Fryowa]

I agree with everything you say in this post except putting Matt Rhule on that list. He has been a good hire and scraped Nebbie off the floor and made them semi-respectable. Hell, they were ranked two weeks ago. Frankly, I was hoping PSU would poach him so Nebbie would have to start over again with someone less competent. Putting him in with Frost and Fickell is not a fair statement.

Rhule would not be an upgrade over Ferentz. That's the bar I'm using since @BigD wants him shit canned.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

Don't make mistakes and win the turnover MGN. In my opinion those are the two most important things. Iowa has the best special teams around, and one of the best defenses in the country. If Iowa can create more turnovers than it gives up and not make dumb mistakes they'll win.

Oregon is going to have to think long and hard about punting the ball at Wetjen, and Iowa's defense has the edge when it comes to forcing them into yardage situations that take away the choice to punt.

Iowa is #1 in the country with 19 penalties and 183 penalty yards, Oregon is 20th with 38 penalties for 327 yds. If you can keep that ratio where it's at or better, there's another part of it.

Hawks need to stay completely mistake free and have at least two forced turnovers to win this game. Lutmer and Hall have to break things up, Graves and Llewellyn need to get to their QB, and MG needs to not throw any picks (and stay uninjured).

That's a huge ask. Like I said in a previous post, I'm expecting a loss, hoping for a close score, and will be pleasantly surprised with a win.

I watched most of the Nebbie/USC game and came away unimpressed with either run defense. I think Iowa can put up 225 in rushing on both teams. USC's offense looked pretty ordinary against a largely ordinary Nebbie D. Now, will that be the case in their home time zone? I seemed to recall we severely underperformed last year when we visited the Rose Bowl.