Break Down the KF Tenure and Give Him Grades

DuffMan

DuffMan

Well-Known Member
In another thread there was lots of talk about "eras" or "versions".... evolutions almost... during KF's time. It was kind of disturbing looking at how some fans view things so narrowly, as in a 2-3 year run somehow needs to be, or should be, viewed separately from the 2-3 years that follows/preceeds it. I just don't get that.

Let's break down KF's tenure here into what we feel are appropriate eras/versions/evolutions and give him grades in each one. I'm interested to see how others view this.

Heres me...

Version 1) The building blocks, 1999-2000, Record 4-19, Grade A-
Here he took over an empty cubbard and attempted to re-build Iowa football into a quality product. The fact he did it in only two years is pretty remarkable IMO, though there were some places along the way doubt crept it. Overall I grade this period an A-. The only think keeping it from an A+ was how terrible that first year was. If he squeaks out a few more wins there I'd reconsider.

Version 2) The payoff, 2001-2011, Record 92-47, Grade B+
Iowa football arrives under KF. Breaking this decade down in any way is downright silly IMO. There was complete stability in the coaching staff, in the philosophies, in the game plans. To somehow separate the down years from the great years and grade them separately just makes no sense. We were for all intents and purposes the exast same team for the entire stretch. This ten year period saw some incredible highs. We finished four season ranked in the top ten. We won 2 B10 titles. We went to 2BCS bowl games (winning one). It also featured some average years, including a two year stretch in which we were one game below .500. In addition the team seemed to struggle to build off it's own success which was a bit of a dissapointment. Certainly things could have been better, but looking at the high points I just can't justify anything lower than B+.

Version 3) The Legacy, 2012-???, Record Unknown, Grade Unknown
If there is a time to separate in the KF era it is now. There are widespread coaching changes including both cooridnators. The team we see on the field next fall will undoubtedly be different than the previous years teams. There is also some evidence that KF's demeanor has changed a bit. I don't think there is any chance this Version lasts 10 years. I could see 4-5, but not much beyond that. What happens these next 4-5 years is going to ultimately define the KF legacy (and I think KF realizes that also). Is he a solid coach that continued Iowa along the path of good, solid, competitive football? Or is he the guy that solidified Iowa on the Map as a legtimate top 20 program in the nation? I think both are possible at this point.
 




Good stuff. Your point about 2001-2011 with pretty much the same staff, so it's the same 'version' is a very worthwhile consideration. B+ at worst.

Something I just thought of then looked at...While a .500 record is not what Iowa shoots for, they are in the midst of the longest streak of .500 or better regular seasons in the history of the program. 11 straight years without a sub .500 mark in the regular season. The previous best was 8 years from 1981-1988
 


3 years 7 or fewer wins, 3 years 8 or more wins.

That is the only consistent pattern that doesn't require some weird dissection.

We are in the middle of another 7 or fewer wins cycle.

Every time someone comes up with another creative dissection, I will state the same factual pattern - that is until it changes.
 


CAARHawk said:
3 years 7 or fewer wins, 3 years 8 or more wins.

That is the only consistent pattern that doesn't require some weird dissection.

We are in the middle of another 7 or fewer wins cycle.

Every time someone comes up with another creative dissection, I will state the same factual pattern - that is until it changes.
Click to expand...

The pattern is a very interesting coincidence. It would be all the more interesting and perhaps more than just a coincidence were you to add a hypothesis that included factors that lead to this alleged Ferentz Oscillation.
 


Also, the Ferentz Oscillation has variable such as AIRBHG to contend with...that were it not for AIRBHG, the Oscillation would have been avoided to some degree. So factor in the plausibility of the paranormal into your hypothesis
 


JonDMiller said:
The pattern is a very interesting coincidence. It would be all the more interesting and perhaps more than just a coincidence were you to add a hypothesis that included factors that lead to this alleged Ferentz Oscillation.
Click to expand...

133331029526.jpg
 


Wow, a pattern...maybe if we look hard enough we'll find it patterned out in the old testament.
 


CAARHawk said:
3 years 7 or fewer wins, 3 years 8 or more wins.

That is the only consistent pattern that doesn't require some weird dissection.

We are in the middle of another 7 or fewer wins cycle.

Every time someone comes up with another creative dissection, I will state the same factual pattern - that is until it changes.
Click to expand...

As we've rehashed before, if Indiana doesn't drop the ball (literally) in 2010 the cycle is destroyed. And before 2010, the "up cycle" was 9 wins minimum.
 




JonDMiller said:
The pattern is a very interesting coincidence. It would be all the more interesting and perhaps more than just a coincidence were you to add a hypothesis that included factors that lead to this alleged Ferentz Oscillation.
Click to expand...

My take on the pattern is that it has to do with three related factors, recruiting, retention, and player development. Although I don't have the time to really do the necessary work to identify concrete correlations right now, I should be able to in a couple of weeks. Here are my suspicions:

Iowa has had up and down years with recruiting. Some years have ended up just not turning out enough future NFL caliber type starters, which has proven necessary for Iowa to be successful. On top of this, there have been issues with retaining players who could develop into future starters. While there are a few Bruggeman types who waited their turn and developed, there are plenty of others who bolted.

Add to this that Iowa has had a tendency to give fewer players more reps, ad opposed to rotating more players and you end up with seasons in which you have players that are either not quite developed enough to succeed, or lack the necessary raw physical ability to succeed having to log a lot of playing time, i.e., the kids of the pre 2000's, King and Kroul getting rook rolled, a certain corner who will not be named, The Klink club, Low YPC backs, two years of MAC level, or lower, DLinemen, etc.
 
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I think there were two distinct phases in the last decade. At some point we stopped rushing all-out on punts and field goals. From 2002-2004, we were the Virginia Tech of the Big Ten. Somewhere in the late 2000s, we turned to the 2002 Ohio State conserv-a-ball model.

If I had to pick a single point where the aura changed, I would say it was the end of regulation of the 2005 Michigan game. We played for the FG and OT from inside their 10yd line.

1999-mid 2005: A
mid2005-2011: B- (still very solid, but often look afraid to make mistakes)
 


Cover3 said:
I think there were two distinct phases in the last decade. At some point we stopped rushing all-out on punts and field goals. From 2002-2004, we were the Virginia Tech of the Big Ten. Somewhere in the late 2000s, we turned to the 2002 Ohio State conserv-a-ball model.

If I had to pick a single point where the aura changed, I would say it was the end of regulation of the 2005 Michigan game. We played for the FG and OT from inside their 10yd line.

1999-mid 2005: A
mid2005-2011: B- (still very solid, but often look afraid to make mistakes)
Click to expand...

that is an excellent point. I always thought the philosophy changed but I never bothered to try and figure out when. Maybe the reason for the change was the coaches realized we had become predictable.
 


What? 13 replies and not one mention of the fans deserving better than a B+ performance from a coach who is getting over $3mil. per. I am severely disappointed.
 


homes said:
What? 13 replies and not one mention of the fans deserving better than a B+ performance from a coach who is getting over $3mil. per. I am severely disappointed.
Click to expand...

I believe with the changes on staff have made fans believe Kirk is trying for better. Trying to be better is the 1st step to becoming better.
 


Or maybe everyone here is smart enough to realize that the market decides how much we pay KF and that his salary has nothing to do with on field results.
 




I must not be smart enough, because I believe that KF's on field performance is a major factor in determining his market rate.

Please note that I didn't indicate he was paid too highly, or that I want him fired.

I read through this several times, and I'm not sure how to grade. My instinct is that the early years, where there were no results, should be given a higher grade than the period that his team's were successful. Several reasons that I won't bore you with. But it boils down to the coaching then was superior, coaching being defined by me to include all of his duties.
 


Kirk Ferentz

Rebuilding: A

Brought a program back to relevance in a short period time, excellent work in this aspect.

Player Devolopment: A

A numerous amount of Iowa players are drafted every year, including 3 straight years with a number one draft pick 10,11, and 12.

Decision Making: B

Playing it close to the vest has won Iowa many games, this style also has many Iowa fans asking themselves what if. Two examples, OSU on the ropes and we play for OT. Playing Jake over Stanzi in 2008, Captain America should have been starting all year. Those are just two examples ,that make me as a fan ask, what if.

This letter grade is also due to a couple other significant moments in the Ferentz era.

Example A: Shonn Green goes down with head injury and fumbles the ball against the cats. Jewel Hampton had yet to see siginificant playing time at this point in the season. The Hawks march the field and have the ball 1st and goal from the 8 yard line. Instead of running the ball Iowa tries four consective passes and fails to beat the cats.

Example B: Iowa is beating the day lights out of MSU in Arob's last year in the Black and Gold. Arob is in the game late and goes down with an injury. Was this a case of the angry RB god or simply a case of a player being in the game when they shouldn't. These are just a few examples, and the reason for the grade B. By no means does this mean Ferentz hasn't made a large number of good decisions.

Program Development: A

Iowa sells out, has a beautiful stadium, and new facilities in the works. Iowa football is a major revenue producer and you have to give credit where credit is due.

Overall: B+

Would be an A, but man what if? (especially 2008)

With this being said, 7-5 is not where I want to be as a Hawk fan. If Iowa football continues to follow a 7-5 pattern. The grade is subject to change.

Go Hawks
 


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