Big Ten Hoops for 2013-2014: Who Returns, Where Iowa Fits

Don't ever put Wisconsin with Kansas/Michigan State. The latter our National Powerhouses, Wisconsin is a regional school.
 


Inactive rodent is trying to convince himself that what he's spewing is actually true/possible. If he says it enough times he might even come to believe it himself.
 








activebadger said:
So let me get this straight, you're saying that a team that finishes higher in their conference standings doesn't (on average) stand a better chance of obtaining a higher seed than one that finishes lower in their same conference standings (on average)?!!!

Sure there are outliers, i.e. Iowa having a better conference record than Illinois this season, etc and receiving a lower or no seed at all. You can cherry pick all you want from across the country but the fact remains that (on average) a team that finishes higher in their conference standings has a higher % chance of receiving a better seed. Typically what that means is that Team A that finished higher than Team B in the league "most likely" also had a stronger team out of conference as well. That doesn't always happen (i.e. Minnesota having a vastly superior non-conference resume than Iowa this year yet a weaker conference record) but it's an indicator when all other variables are blind.

Go take a statistics class. They're offered all over.
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I said it matters little if you finish 4th, 5th or 6th in your league. I wasn't talking about the odds of making the tourney if you finish 1st VS finishing 8th.

I don't have to cherry pick anything at all. The committee could care less if you finish 6th in your league, and 2 teams finish below you if they have better wins, and better quality played. It is just a fact. If you want to put qualifiers on your "equation" (better non conference schedule) then you are making my point, and I appreciate that. That means 100000X more than where you finish in the conference, and they prove that this year.

Lets break down the major conferences that had at least 5 teams make the NCAA:

Big East:
4th place Pitt #8 seed
5/6 Syracuse #4 seed
5/6 Notre Dame #7 Seed

You are 0-1, the team that finished alone in 4th place was seeded lower than both the 5th and 6th place teams

ACC only 4 teams in, can't compare 4th, 5th and 6th seed

BIG 12
Tie 4/5 Iowa St. #10
Tie 4/5 Oklahoma #10

It held true that conference tie = exact same seeding. 1-1

BIG10
Tie 4/5 Wisconsin #5
Tie 4/5 Michigan #4
6th Iowa - Not in
Tie 7/8/9 Illinois #7
Tie 7/8/9 Minny #11
Tie 7/8/9 Purdue - not in

This conference wasn't even close. It matters ZERO where you finished below 3rd in the league, the seeding had ZERO to due with conference record or standing, but show the committee values overall record, and good wins, and other criteria. 1-2

SEC didn't qualify enough teams

Pac 12
Tie 2/3/4 Arizona #6
Tie 2/3/4 Oregon #12
Tie 2/3/4 Cal #12
5th Colorado #10

Once again a fail for you, and I am correct. Colorado finished with 2 less conference wins than Oregon and Cal, yet was seeded 2 spots better. Not only that, but Oregon and Cal tied Arizona, and were seeded 6 spots lower!

Your "equation" was 1-3, and I was 3-1 in what happened with 4th, 5th and 6th places teams in regards to tournament seeding. If you'd like a remedial statistics class, I would be glad to teach you.
 


People keep bringing up the close losses as if they will magically turn into wins next year. The truth is Iowa played those games closer than they probably should have this year, meaning Iowa likely played above their level. Those close losses are just as likely the same result next year.
 


activebadger said:
Uh because Brown and Hayes are currently in high school in Ohio.....

We've always had slow white guys. Marshall played spot minutes this year for the most part because he wasn't a good decision maker, yet.

There's always some guy or some important player named so and so that Wisconsin has to replace and Bo always does. You think Berggren, Evans and Bruesewitz are harder to replace than Leuer, Nankivil? Or Butch, Stiemsma? Or Krabbenhoft and Landry? Or Wilkinson and Morley? We'll be fine and Bo will replace Berggren with Frank Kaminsky, Vitto Brown and Nigel Hayes. Ryan Evans was cut by his High School team and had one scholarship offer (Wisconsin). You don't think Bo can replace Ryan Evans? You didn't think we could replace Jordan Taylor last year and now it's Wisconsin can't replace Ryan Freaking Evans?!!!

Pfft, please.
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This is my point. Hayes and Brown are in high school and they are replacing 5th year guys like Bru and Evans? Right. The difference in the past is that Bo had 3rd or 4th year guys ready to replace the departing big men....not so much this year...two true frosh? Hell,with Bo's rules,these guys are unlikely to see the floor much at all this next year. Dekker was the greatest of all time and could not break into the starting lineup. Wisky will drop this year...7th or 8th. Get comfortable in that range,cus that is where Bo and Co. will reside going forward.
 




Just saw this listed somewhere...

key Wisconsin returnees: G Josh Gasser (missed season due to torn ACL), G Ben Brust (11.1, 5.1 RPG), F Sam Dekker (9.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 39% 3PT), G Traevon Jackson (6.9 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 2.8 APG), F Frank Kaminsky (4.2 PPG, 1.8 RPG), G George Marshall (4.1 PPG)

Newcomers: F Nigel Hayes (#85), G Bronson Koenig, G Riley Dearring, G Jordan Hill

Wow that's a lot of guards. Whew. Kaminsky didn't conjure up a great deal of hope for me. Dekker is fantastic, but he's not a low block player IMO, or wasn't this year. He is better on the wing. Nigel Hayes has a nice ranking and is a good player (Ohio State offered and wanted him), but bigs can take some time to get there.

I just don't see Wisconsin in the Top Four this year. I think that streak snaps. I think they are outside of the Top Five or Six. I'd wager on it if I did that sort of thing ;)
 


Wisconsin has done a great job with their program. Bo Ryan is going to be a Big Ten Hall of Famer and deservedly so, for what they have been able to accomplish. Few programs have had an NCAA streak like Wisconsin (14) in B1G history...Michigan State (16) and Indiana (18) are the only two B1G programs to have a longer streak than that (MSU's is active). But remember he didn't take over for a moribund program; the Badgers had a three-year NCAA streak going, including being just one full season removed from a Final Four appearance when Ryan took over in Madison.

Where active is off base is thinking any of this is personal.
 


HawkeyeDug said:
People keep bringing up the close losses as if they will magically turn into wins next year. The truth is Iowa played those games closer than they probably should have this year, meaning Iowa likely played above their level. Those close losses are just as likely the same result next year.
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Iowa's defense was terrible last year. It was very good this year. Iowa's record and personnel have improved each year under Fran. We only lose 1 player. Iowa's 3 point shooting was not good this year. It will likely be much better next year...see the defensive improvement this year. Based on what the trend has been over the last 3 years it is far more likely that Iowa will take a step forward...not have the "same result next year."
 


JonDMiller said:
Wisconsin has done a great job with their program. Bo Ryan is going to be a Big Ten Hall of Famer and deservedly so, for what they have been able to accomplish. Few programs have had an NCAA streak like Wisconsin (14) in B1G history...Michigan State (16) and Indiana (18) are the only two B1G programs to have a longer streak than that (MSU's is active). But remember he didn't take over for a moribund program; the Badgers had a three-year NCAA streak going, including being just one full season removed from a Final Four appearance when Ryan took over in Madison.

Where active is off base is thinking any of this is personal.
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Agree. I only put Wisconsin as high as 6th because of Bo's past success and because I think Dekker is special. They could get killed on the boards. I remember Iowa last year when teams just kept tipping it toward the rim until it finally found the hole.
 


JonDMiller said:
Wisconsin has done a great job with their program. Bo Ryan is going to be a Big Ten Hall of Famer and deservedly so, for what they have been able to accomplish. Few programs have had an NCAA streak like Wisconsin (14) in B1G history...Michigan State (16) and Indiana (18) are the only two B1G programs to have a longer streak than that (MSU's is active). But remember he didn't take over for a moribund program; the Badgers had a three-year NCAA streak going, including being just one full season removed from a Final Four appearance when Ryan took over in Madison.

Where active is off base is thinking any of this is personal.
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Well with what happened to the previous moderator of Badgernation.com, I suspect it is personal. Here's some advice: let it go.

Care to repost your predictions for the BIG that you had coming into this season. I'm sure I can do a search for it but my guess is Wisconsin wasn't in your top 4. I'd like to see the commentary again as well.

Anyone with the link to Jon's predictions from this year?
 


That's partly a joke as I'm sure he has his Iowa predictions waiting on standby.

I mean the entire conference predictions. I know he made some. I'm sure it said something about "who will save Wisconsin late in the shot clock with Jordan Taylor gone?!"
 


activebadger said:
That's partly a joke as I'm sure he has his Iowa predictions waiting on standby.

I mean the entire conference predictions. I know he made some. I'm sure it said something about "who will save Wisconsin late in the shot clock with Jordan Taylor gone?!"
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Let's be honest that was a fair question. I don't dislike wisconsin or want to see them lose (except against iowa). But when you look at a team and what they lost and brought back compared to other teams you make honest assessment about where they will end up. Bo does an incredible job of winning when it looks like he won't. But it isn't personal when people think the team won't win it is their honest assessment of how they think it will turn out. This yr was one of bo's best coaching jobs. But remember he didn't rebuild the program he took over the program. Fran has rebuilt it. And if you look at what fran has coming back and what bo has I would say iowa should be better. But again bo could do what he seems to do each yr and prove people wrong. That isn't a personal belief that is my honest assessment. You tend to think it is personal when people pick against wisconsin...maybe that is what bo does and his teams do...it works but it isn't true.
 


Foval21 said:
Let's be honest that was a fair question. I don't dislike wisconsin or want to see them lose (except against iowa). But when you look at a team and what they lost and brought back compared to other teams you make honest assessment about where they will end up. Bo does an incredible job of winning when it looks like he won't. But it isn't personal when people think the team won't win it is their honest assessment of how they think it will turn out. This yr was one of bo's best coaching jobs. But remember he didn't rebuild the program he took over the program. Fran has rebuilt it. And if you look at what fran has coming back and what bo has I would say iowa should be better. But again bo could do what he seems to do each yr and prove people wrong. That isn't a personal belief that is my honest assessment. You tend to think it is personal when people pick against wisconsin...maybe that is what bo does and his teams do...it works but it isn't true.
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I don't think it is personal when someone picks against Wisconsin. Not at all. But the thing that people fail to realize time and time and time again is that certain coaches succeed no matter the personnel. Bo Ryan is one of those coaches and it's been proven year after year after year.

I also don't respect lazy analysis. Because if anyone looks at the Wisconsin roster and compare it to prior years they would notice that Bo ALWAYS has turnover in his roster because he is a developmental coach. He's not reliant on one special recruiting class that was responsible for his success. There's been many student athletes that have matriculated under Bo and the results are always at the Top third of the league. You can go back EVERY year and there was some important player or group of players that Bo lost to graduation/injury/NBA and Bo always replaced them because there was a guy he was developing behind them. To overlook that after 12 years of it happening is lazy.

Who are the next guys to come in and replace Evans, Berggren and Bruesewitz? That'd be Kaminsky, Anderson, Brown, Hayes, Dekker and Dukan. There's 6 frontline guys right there. Just because you haven't heard of them or they haven't played much doesn't mean there isn't talent. Berggren got spot minutes behind Leuer and Nankivil. When it was his turn Bo had him developed and he was ready to play. The same will happen with several of those 6 guys. It's like the New England Patriots. Everyone panics whenever a guy like Welker, Moss, Bruschi, Harrison, Vrabel, etc leave or get left out in free agency. Yet every year Bill Belicek is close to the top of the standings. Certain coaches know how to develop, eye talent and then coach them up. Bo is one of them.
 


activebadger said:
That's partly a joke as I'm sure he has his Iowa predictions waiting on standby.

I mean the entire conference predictions. I know he made some. I'm sure it said something about "who will save Wisconsin late in the shot clock with Jordan Taylor gone?!"
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You are a busy guy if you go around crying on every site that predicted Wisconsin lower than 4th place.

Big Ten Basketball Preview 2012-2013 | Big Ten Basketball Predictions 2012-2013 | Big Ten Basketball Picks 2012-2013 - Arena Fanatic

Big Ten Basketball: Complete Breakdown, Analysis and Prediction for 2012-2013 | Bleacher Report

The Hoops Report | Big Ten Basketball Preview and Rankings: 2012-2013 Edition

2012 Big Ten Basketball: Big Ten Basketball Early Preview

Big Ten Basketball Non-Conference Recap and Conference Preview - Sippin' On Purple

Big Ten Conference Basketball Predictions (you really need to go after this guy. He predicted Wisconsin to finish 8th!)

Big Ten 2012-2013 Men’s Basketball Preview | Midway Madness

http://www.mancavesports.org/ncaa/november-2012/2012-2013-big-ten-basketball-predictions/

As a matter of fact only a couple places even had Wisconsin predicted 4th. You keep screaming that Wisky CAN'T POSSIBLE FINISH LOWER THAN 4TH. The reality is, most people nationally thought they would. They will think that next year also, because when you look at it as a non Vadger, that is what it looks like.
 




activebadger said:
That's partly a joke as I'm sure he has his Iowa predictions waiting on standby.

I mean the entire conference predictions. I know he made some. I'm sure it said something about "who will save Wisconsin late in the shot clock with Jordan Taylor gone?!"
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Here was JD's prediction before the season began on Iowa. Hit it perfectly. Even said Iowa and Wisky would split. He didn't predict the conference like you claim he did. What pizzed you off, was his power rankings of the BIG in season......even though JD pretty much mirrored what ESPN power rankings were at the time, and what people nationally thought of Wisky. Some reason we got the pleasure of you showing up here, instead of on ESPN or some other site.....

On the Record Iowa Basketball Season Prediction | Big Ten
 


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