JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
The Iowa men's basketball team put forth an exciting 2012-2013 season and while the dust is still settling on this year, it's never too early to look ahead to next season. Let's begin that process right now with a look at what teams will return and/or lose which players for next year and how they may stack up.
INDIANA: The Hoosiers will lose guards Jordan Hulls and Christian Watford. Hulls averaged 10.1/pgg and 3.1 assists per game and were the Hoosiers two best three-point shooters. Hulls made 46.4% from long range on 166 attempts which was the 2nd best total amongst Big Ten players in all games played on the fourth highest attempts of the Top 15 best shooters. Watford was #1 in three-point percentage amongst all Big Ten players in all games at 49.1% on 56-114 shooting. Between them, they were of 133 of 280 (47.5%) from long range. The 280 attempts were 47.7% of Indiana's three-point attempts for the year, so Indiana is losing a great deal here. When you have long-range threats like these two it creates so much more space for Cody Zeller to operate in the paint and basically eliminates any thought of packing in a zone to stop Zeller inside...unless of course that team is Syracuse.
Victor Oladipo was named National Player of the Year by the Sporting News, was a first team All American and ESPN's Chad Ford rates him as a Top Ten pick in this year's draft (presently 6th overall). I think Oladipo has to go as I just don't see him taking his game to the point where he is the #1 overall pick. Consider last year's NBA salary slotting for rookies. The 5th pick was guaranteed $8.81 million over three years while the 8th pick was not too far back at $6.69 million over three years. Yes, that $2.2 million is a lot to you and me, the 8th pick money may be realistic for Oladipo and he doesn't risk injury. I think he goes
So that leaves the question of Cody Zeller. Does he stay or go? Hoosier fans want to believe he will stay in school all four years like his brothers Luke and Tyler, but neither of them were Lottery Picks after their freshman and sophomore seasons the way Cody is (Ford projects him 10th as of 4/1). Given the loss of guards and three-point production may mean a more congested lane for Cody next year where teams can play more zone against the Hoosiers, it might be the right time.
Indiana has another Top 10 recruiting class, but I think Oladipo is gone and with the losses of Hulls an Watford, that's a big hole. If Zeller leaves too, the Hoosiers fall back to earth a bit. They will still be good and likely ranked in the preseason even if they lost both Oladipo and Zeller, but they won't win the Big Ten next year. I also think they may be ranked a little higher than is worthy if that happens, because of their brand.
MICHIGAN: Before the season began I believed it would be the last on campus for Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke. I think that will turn out to be half right (which also means half wrong). Burke is moving up draft boards and Ford has him at #7 in this year's draft. He was named Sports Illustrated's player of the year and was a first team AP All American. How much higher can one 6-foot guard go than National Player of the Year? Not much, which is why I think Burke is gone.
Hardaway isn't projected in Ford's Top 30 and he gives him a 2nd round or undrafted projection right now. Hardway improved his three-point shooting this year but his overall gross statistics are about the same from last year to this year. The player with perhaps the best pro future of anyone yet listed in this write up is Glen Robinson III. Ford had him as a 1st round pick at 24th as of March 19th and then moved him up to 14th in his March 26th update. He doesn't do anything elite at this point in time, but the NBA draft has long been a projection affair. Robinson has an outside shooting hole in his game right now but he rebounded well this season and runs the court like a gazelle. This is going to be a real interesting situation to monitor.
If Robinson stays around this position, I would think he'd return as I believe Hardaway will be back and Michigan would have a very strong team again next year with Nick Stauskas and Mitch McGary entering their sophomore seasons plus another Top 15 recruiting class. McGary is already giving Big Ten teams headaches with what he has been doing in the tournament and Ford didn't have him mentioned in mid March and has him at 33rd in his March 26th update McGary said this week that he is returning, though I never thought otherwise. They will be green at point guard if Burke leaves but one of the Big Ten's best teams next year and possibly a preseason Top 10 club yet again. Robinson is getting real, real close to that territory where as a freshman, if you can go in the Lottery you may have to pull the trigger.
MICHIGAN STATE: The Spartans may be the Big Ten favorites for next year if Adreian Payne stays in East Lansing. They might be a pre-season Top 5 if that happens and if Gary Harris doesn't turn pro; Ford has Harris rated as the 11th overall player in this draft class as of March 26th, but Harris has had shoulder injury problems this year including as of late and has indicated he would be staying for another year and may require surgery on his shoulder. Ford had Payne at the tail end of the 1st round or an early 2nd round pick right now, otherwise known as no man's land. He really played well during the Big Ten season this year and has grown big time each year; 2.5/ppg as a frosh, 7.0 as a soph and over 10 as a junior with the last 18 games seeing him average 12.4/ppg and really loading up on the glass. He also has range out beyond the arc making 15 of 33 this year. Ford dropped him to 40th for his March 26th update, so it would seem likely that Payne will be returning. Tom Izzo is talking with him this week about his chances, conferring with NBA people. Derrick Nix is the lone senior and his size will be missed but he was their fourth leading scorer and that can be replaced. If everyone is back who can be, this is a national title contender if Keith Appling grows up this offseason and would be ranked in the preseason Top Five. I think Payne and Harris will both return and Michigan State is one of your national title favorites for next season.
OHIO STATE: For the past few months I have been thinking that we were seeing the last of Ohio State's Deshaun Thomas, as he was the Big Ten's top scorer in all games and a 6-7/220 small forward with guard skills would probably turn pro after this year, forgoing his senior season of college eligibility. While that remains a possibility, Chad Ford of ESPN doesn't list him among his Top 30 players for this year's draft class. In fact, he's not even in his Top 40 as of his March 26th update; he has him at 47th. Why? "Questionable work ethic, indifferent defender" were two of the downsides listed. Even if they lose Thomas, he would join Evan Ravenel as the only Buckeye losses. This team reloads with some youngsters and will still be the best defensive team in the Big Ten conference. Granted, Thomas carried this Ohio State team for the first half of the season or even longer. But that was enough time for the younger guns to get acclimated and Thomas' loss will be softened because of it, should he turn pro. If he returns? You are looking at at Top Five team from the Big Ten. If he goes, I still think this team will be Top 15.
THE REST: Purdue returns a lot of production, including big man AJ Hammons. They lose the annoying DJ Byrd, and I mean that as a compliment; if he was on your team, you love him if not, he is annoying to play against. They won more games this year than I thought they would win so they will mix it up next season.
Northwestern has a new coach, will it be a new system? Can they compete with anything else given the talent disparities that exist? Nebraska loses a great deal and they will be bottom three again. Illinois loses Paul and Richardson plus a few more pieces and welcomes in a lot of young talent, but they will probably have more growing pains and finish in the bottom half. Minnesota loses Mbakwe and Williams and just axed Tubby Smith; they have chemistry problems. Wisconsin loses their entire front line and will have to do a lot of chucking from beyond the arc. Tim Frazier will return for Penn State after the Achilles injury and they will be much more pesky than this past year. They could be more than pesky; not an NCAA team but perhaps an NIT team with Frazier. If he can return to his former self, they could be a spoiler.
As for the Hawkeyes, they return everyone but Eric May, who made winning contributions all season long and has been huge down the stretch. They welcome in Jarrod Uthoff and Peter Jok and Fran McCaffery is going to have a huge problem on his hands; how do you keep everyone happy with regards to minutes?
Devyn Marble
Aaron White
Mike Gesell
Adam Woodbury
-These four will be starters barring injury
Melsahn Basabe (I'd prefer another guard, but starting is overrated anyway)
Zach McCabe (Can start, but good in role as doing what is needed)
Gabe Olsaeni (So much for redshirting; could start but maybe more effective off the bench and situationally)
Josh Oglesby (If he can regain his shooting touch, he could get some starts)
Anthony Clemmons (Has several starts under his belt already)
Then we get to Pat Ingram who played sparingly this year but started out behind the eight-ball as he needed to stay back in Indiana last summer and take care of some coursework. He arrived in Iowa City in less than stellar shape and it set him back. With Peter Jok joining the program and being just the type of three-point shooter Iowa needs right now, guard minutes are going to be very, very hard to come by. Uthoff is going to get some forward minutes and Kyle Meyer becomes eligible for Iowa as well after having sat out this season with a redshirt. That's 13 names right there, all 13 scholarship players. We don't know much about Meyer and Ingram didn't get a great look at things, but this may be as deep an Iowa team as I can remember with regards to players who can make a legit claim on playing at least 10 minutes per game.
Have there been Iowa rosters more talented than next year's? Yes, several. But I just don't know that there have been too many this deep, aside from say the 1986-1987 roster. Some people say that is a good problem to have, but it can still be a bit of a problem.
If I had to toss out my early projection for the Big Ten (here is what I did this time last year and got pretty close), here is what I'd do, factoring in what I think will happen with early NBA entries and how I think these teams will be viewed by the national media in preseason projections in the coming months and prior to the season:
1. Michigan State
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. Indiana
5. Iowa
6. Purdue
7. Wisconsin
8. Illinois
9. Minnesota
10. Penn State
11. Northwestern
12. Nebraska
The top four listed there will be ranked in the preseason, with the Top Three being inside the Top 15. Wisconsin may get some preseason rankings on reputation and history. Iowa is going to be on the fringe of Top 25 lists for the preseason.
One the whole, I don't think the league will be as good as it was this year, but it will be a Top Three league in the sport next season. Purdue is going to be better and I think Iowa will be, too. Penn State will be better while Illinois and Minnesota could wind up with similar conference records as they had this year, or maybe slightly worse.
Look for real early preseason Top 25 lists to pop up on Tuesday of next week. Andy Katz of ESPN typically does this within a few weeks of the completion of the tournament. Here is what he did last year on April 12th; it turned out to be a pretty good effort.
INDIANA: The Hoosiers will lose guards Jordan Hulls and Christian Watford. Hulls averaged 10.1/pgg and 3.1 assists per game and were the Hoosiers two best three-point shooters. Hulls made 46.4% from long range on 166 attempts which was the 2nd best total amongst Big Ten players in all games played on the fourth highest attempts of the Top 15 best shooters. Watford was #1 in three-point percentage amongst all Big Ten players in all games at 49.1% on 56-114 shooting. Between them, they were of 133 of 280 (47.5%) from long range. The 280 attempts were 47.7% of Indiana's three-point attempts for the year, so Indiana is losing a great deal here. When you have long-range threats like these two it creates so much more space for Cody Zeller to operate in the paint and basically eliminates any thought of packing in a zone to stop Zeller inside...unless of course that team is Syracuse.
Victor Oladipo was named National Player of the Year by the Sporting News, was a first team All American and ESPN's Chad Ford rates him as a Top Ten pick in this year's draft (presently 6th overall). I think Oladipo has to go as I just don't see him taking his game to the point where he is the #1 overall pick. Consider last year's NBA salary slotting for rookies. The 5th pick was guaranteed $8.81 million over three years while the 8th pick was not too far back at $6.69 million over three years. Yes, that $2.2 million is a lot to you and me, the 8th pick money may be realistic for Oladipo and he doesn't risk injury. I think he goes
So that leaves the question of Cody Zeller. Does he stay or go? Hoosier fans want to believe he will stay in school all four years like his brothers Luke and Tyler, but neither of them were Lottery Picks after their freshman and sophomore seasons the way Cody is (Ford projects him 10th as of 4/1). Given the loss of guards and three-point production may mean a more congested lane for Cody next year where teams can play more zone against the Hoosiers, it might be the right time.
Indiana has another Top 10 recruiting class, but I think Oladipo is gone and with the losses of Hulls an Watford, that's a big hole. If Zeller leaves too, the Hoosiers fall back to earth a bit. They will still be good and likely ranked in the preseason even if they lost both Oladipo and Zeller, but they won't win the Big Ten next year. I also think they may be ranked a little higher than is worthy if that happens, because of their brand.
MICHIGAN: Before the season began I believed it would be the last on campus for Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke. I think that will turn out to be half right (which also means half wrong). Burke is moving up draft boards and Ford has him at #7 in this year's draft. He was named Sports Illustrated's player of the year and was a first team AP All American. How much higher can one 6-foot guard go than National Player of the Year? Not much, which is why I think Burke is gone.
Hardaway isn't projected in Ford's Top 30 and he gives him a 2nd round or undrafted projection right now. Hardway improved his three-point shooting this year but his overall gross statistics are about the same from last year to this year. The player with perhaps the best pro future of anyone yet listed in this write up is Glen Robinson III. Ford had him as a 1st round pick at 24th as of March 19th and then moved him up to 14th in his March 26th update. He doesn't do anything elite at this point in time, but the NBA draft has long been a projection affair. Robinson has an outside shooting hole in his game right now but he rebounded well this season and runs the court like a gazelle. This is going to be a real interesting situation to monitor.
If Robinson stays around this position, I would think he'd return as I believe Hardaway will be back and Michigan would have a very strong team again next year with Nick Stauskas and Mitch McGary entering their sophomore seasons plus another Top 15 recruiting class. McGary is already giving Big Ten teams headaches with what he has been doing in the tournament and Ford didn't have him mentioned in mid March and has him at 33rd in his March 26th update McGary said this week that he is returning, though I never thought otherwise. They will be green at point guard if Burke leaves but one of the Big Ten's best teams next year and possibly a preseason Top 10 club yet again. Robinson is getting real, real close to that territory where as a freshman, if you can go in the Lottery you may have to pull the trigger.
MICHIGAN STATE: The Spartans may be the Big Ten favorites for next year if Adreian Payne stays in East Lansing. They might be a pre-season Top 5 if that happens and if Gary Harris doesn't turn pro; Ford has Harris rated as the 11th overall player in this draft class as of March 26th, but Harris has had shoulder injury problems this year including as of late and has indicated he would be staying for another year and may require surgery on his shoulder. Ford had Payne at the tail end of the 1st round or an early 2nd round pick right now, otherwise known as no man's land. He really played well during the Big Ten season this year and has grown big time each year; 2.5/ppg as a frosh, 7.0 as a soph and over 10 as a junior with the last 18 games seeing him average 12.4/ppg and really loading up on the glass. He also has range out beyond the arc making 15 of 33 this year. Ford dropped him to 40th for his March 26th update, so it would seem likely that Payne will be returning. Tom Izzo is talking with him this week about his chances, conferring with NBA people. Derrick Nix is the lone senior and his size will be missed but he was their fourth leading scorer and that can be replaced. If everyone is back who can be, this is a national title contender if Keith Appling grows up this offseason and would be ranked in the preseason Top Five. I think Payne and Harris will both return and Michigan State is one of your national title favorites for next season.
OHIO STATE: For the past few months I have been thinking that we were seeing the last of Ohio State's Deshaun Thomas, as he was the Big Ten's top scorer in all games and a 6-7/220 small forward with guard skills would probably turn pro after this year, forgoing his senior season of college eligibility. While that remains a possibility, Chad Ford of ESPN doesn't list him among his Top 30 players for this year's draft class. In fact, he's not even in his Top 40 as of his March 26th update; he has him at 47th. Why? "Questionable work ethic, indifferent defender" were two of the downsides listed. Even if they lose Thomas, he would join Evan Ravenel as the only Buckeye losses. This team reloads with some youngsters and will still be the best defensive team in the Big Ten conference. Granted, Thomas carried this Ohio State team for the first half of the season or even longer. But that was enough time for the younger guns to get acclimated and Thomas' loss will be softened because of it, should he turn pro. If he returns? You are looking at at Top Five team from the Big Ten. If he goes, I still think this team will be Top 15.
THE REST: Purdue returns a lot of production, including big man AJ Hammons. They lose the annoying DJ Byrd, and I mean that as a compliment; if he was on your team, you love him if not, he is annoying to play against. They won more games this year than I thought they would win so they will mix it up next season.
Northwestern has a new coach, will it be a new system? Can they compete with anything else given the talent disparities that exist? Nebraska loses a great deal and they will be bottom three again. Illinois loses Paul and Richardson plus a few more pieces and welcomes in a lot of young talent, but they will probably have more growing pains and finish in the bottom half. Minnesota loses Mbakwe and Williams and just axed Tubby Smith; they have chemistry problems. Wisconsin loses their entire front line and will have to do a lot of chucking from beyond the arc. Tim Frazier will return for Penn State after the Achilles injury and they will be much more pesky than this past year. They could be more than pesky; not an NCAA team but perhaps an NIT team with Frazier. If he can return to his former self, they could be a spoiler.
As for the Hawkeyes, they return everyone but Eric May, who made winning contributions all season long and has been huge down the stretch. They welcome in Jarrod Uthoff and Peter Jok and Fran McCaffery is going to have a huge problem on his hands; how do you keep everyone happy with regards to minutes?
Devyn Marble
Aaron White
Mike Gesell
Adam Woodbury
-These four will be starters barring injury
Melsahn Basabe (I'd prefer another guard, but starting is overrated anyway)
Zach McCabe (Can start, but good in role as doing what is needed)
Gabe Olsaeni (So much for redshirting; could start but maybe more effective off the bench and situationally)
Josh Oglesby (If he can regain his shooting touch, he could get some starts)
Anthony Clemmons (Has several starts under his belt already)
Then we get to Pat Ingram who played sparingly this year but started out behind the eight-ball as he needed to stay back in Indiana last summer and take care of some coursework. He arrived in Iowa City in less than stellar shape and it set him back. With Peter Jok joining the program and being just the type of three-point shooter Iowa needs right now, guard minutes are going to be very, very hard to come by. Uthoff is going to get some forward minutes and Kyle Meyer becomes eligible for Iowa as well after having sat out this season with a redshirt. That's 13 names right there, all 13 scholarship players. We don't know much about Meyer and Ingram didn't get a great look at things, but this may be as deep an Iowa team as I can remember with regards to players who can make a legit claim on playing at least 10 minutes per game.
Have there been Iowa rosters more talented than next year's? Yes, several. But I just don't know that there have been too many this deep, aside from say the 1986-1987 roster. Some people say that is a good problem to have, but it can still be a bit of a problem.
If I had to toss out my early projection for the Big Ten (here is what I did this time last year and got pretty close), here is what I'd do, factoring in what I think will happen with early NBA entries and how I think these teams will be viewed by the national media in preseason projections in the coming months and prior to the season:
1. Michigan State
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. Indiana
5. Iowa
6. Purdue
7. Wisconsin
8. Illinois
9. Minnesota
10. Penn State
11. Northwestern
12. Nebraska
The top four listed there will be ranked in the preseason, with the Top Three being inside the Top 15. Wisconsin may get some preseason rankings on reputation and history. Iowa is going to be on the fringe of Top 25 lists for the preseason.
One the whole, I don't think the league will be as good as it was this year, but it will be a Top Three league in the sport next season. Purdue is going to be better and I think Iowa will be, too. Penn State will be better while Illinois and Minnesota could wind up with similar conference records as they had this year, or maybe slightly worse.
Look for real early preseason Top 25 lists to pop up on Tuesday of next week. Andy Katz of ESPN typically does this within a few weeks of the completion of the tournament. Here is what he did last year on April 12th; it turned out to be a pretty good effort.
