11 To Go: Can Iowa Make the Dance?

[hawkfan33]

Jon I didn't see any mention of how your preseason prediction matched up with the current results. Did I miss it?

 

[sportstalent]

Iowa still can get there. Hold serve at home and win at Nebby/PSU I think they are in even if the lost in the first round
of BTT

That would be 10-8.

 

[Section136]

If Iowa goes 7-4 the rest of the way, that is a 20-11/9-9 season, which is what I predicted back in October.

Jon I didn't see any mention of how your preseason prediction matched up with the current results. Did I miss it?

He is thinking forward now.

 

[STILLBUSTER]

Sorry, but I just can't get to 95% for this team against anyone in the Big Ten

Agreed!

As poorly as Iowa is shooting, as inconsistent as their effort has been and their repeated inability to finish leads, Iowa should have no greater than a 75% chance to win any home game. (I'm not that optimistic about tonight's game and expect a very ugly grinder of a <10 point win.) With the exception of Penn St, no better than 50% to win any road game.

I'd take every one of Windsor's predictions and drop them by 20%. (Yes, that puts Indy at -15%, which is still too high a probability that Iowa will win there this year.)

Iowa is not going to make the NCAA this year. As said all season, a good, reliable shooter & one year experience / workouts away from that. 19 season wins, depending on BTT, maybe 20 total. That's a good home court run for MSG.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I understand and that's fair. I'm still of the thinking that all of our losses have been to ranked teams other than VT and the ugly Purdue loss...both on the road. That puts our winning percentage at about 87% against teams which aren't ranked. I'm above that line with the 95% games but below it in the others. I'm being very bullish on not letting the tough schedule on the front end skew my feelings in the easier games on the back end.

Sorry, but I just can't get to 95% for this team against anyone in the Big Ten

 

[WindsorHawk]

This post is ridiculous. There's no reason to say more because it doesn't deserve even this much acknowledgement.

Agreed!

As poorly as Iowa is shooting, as inconsistent as their effort has been and their repeated inability to finish leads, Iowa should have no greater than a 75% chance to win any home game. (I'm not that optimistic about tonight's game and expect a very ugly grinder of a <10 point win.) With the exception of Penn St, no better than 50% to win any road game.

I'd take every one of Windsor's predictions and drop them by 20%. (Yes, that puts Indy at -15%, which is still too high a probability that Iowa will win there this year.)

Iowa is not going to make the NCAA this year. As said all season, a good, reliable shooter & one year experience / workouts away from that. 19 season wins, depending on BTT, maybe 20 total. That's a good home court run for MSG.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

This post is ridiculous. There's no reason to say more because it doesn't deserve even this much acknowledgement.

Except for the fact that he's right. This looks like an NIT team to me - not an NCAA team. Finish the MSU & Purdue games, and it's a different story... But they didn't.

Iowa is not good on the road (alot of teams aren't) and they shoot too inconsistently from the outside to blindly assume any wins against conference opponents. I'm with Jon on his predictions.. I think he's pretty close to the mark.

That said, Iowa should, and had better, beat PSU and should be able to do it by double digits.

 

[mrolympia]

that would require going 7-4. the schedule is easier but that doesn't mean it's a cakewalk. Iowa has to win all their home games and win on the road. They haven't shown they can close out games and have a killer instinct, or can perform in clutch time. at this time I'd say it's about 75% unlikely given the way this team is shooting and choking at the end of close games. One thing is for sure, lose tonight and there is little point in watching the rest of the season.

 

[HawkeyeMHA]

It be tough but I say close but no cigar

 

[WindsorHawk]

Really? Iowa has no better than a 75% chance of winning any home game...most notably Penn State and Nebraska? Iowa fans should not be optimistic about tonight's game? Vegas currently has us as a 13.5 point favorite. Our chances are 50-50 or worse at Penn State and Nebraska? Those comments are ridiculous IMO.

Except for the fact that he's right. This looks like an NIT team to me - not an NCAA team. Finish the MSU & Purdue games, and it's a different story... But they didn't.

Iowa is not good on the road (alot of teams aren't) and they shoot too inconsistently from the outside to blindly assume any wins against conference opponents. I'm with Jon on his predictions.. I think he's pretty close to the mark.

That said, Iowa should, and had better, beat PSU and should be able to do it by double digits.

 

[nationalchamps]

JD - please quit touting your 9-9 prediction in the B1G....yes, it's what you predicted originally, but when Frazier went down you changed to 10-8. You're starting to enter Lunardi territory bro....

 

[PalmettoHawkFan]

I'll say it again

8-10

 

[gachawk]

Actually at least 12 games left counting the Big 10 tourney. I still think Iowa can get to 9 wins. If they get 8 then more than likely might have to win 2 games in the conference tourney. I think the B1G gets 8 teams in this year.

 

[aaronzuriel]

For the Iowa men's basketball team, now is the time to go. Now is the time to put a few things together and show that the program is moving forward. There are 11 games left in the season and the majority of them are winnable. How winnable? What does Iowa have to do to make the dance?

Let's take a look at Iowa's remaining schedule from a Confidence Percentage Index point of view. Coincidentally, I went through this very exercise one year ago with 11 games remaining. Not sure why I chose to do that then or why the thought entered my mind at the same juncture of the season one year later.

I will say this; the game I was most confident in Iowa winning with 11 to play last year was their home game against Nebraska, which they lost (after leading by double digits). Of the five games where I had Iowa below a 50% confidence mark, they lost four of those five with the home game against Wisconsin being the lone exception.

1. Penn State at Iowa: This is Iowa's next game on the schedule, which might be why my memory was jogged related to this sort of undertaking. Penn State has yet to win a Big Ten game and I don't see that happening. CONFIDENCE: 80%

2. Nebraska at Iowa: The Cornhuskers want to play slow and ugly and more often than not, they accomplish that objective. But they are a bad team and Iowa must win this game and I think they will. CONFIDENCE: 70%

3. Northwestern at Iowa: The Hawks beat Northwestern by 20 points in Evanston and it will be the same cast of Cats in Iowa City later this year. I don't think Iowa wins by that many points, as the second half of hoops was one of Iowa's season best from an offensive perspective, but I expect a win. CONFIDENCE: 70%

4. Iowa at Penn State: Same Cats, different venue. Iowa has not looked great on the road as of late, but you could say that about most Big Ten teams. CONFIDENCE: 60%

5. Purdue at Iowa: Iowa must return the favor to Purdue in this game. The Boilermakers are a stingy defensive team but offensively challenged. Iowa is much better at home. CONFIDENCE: 55%

6. Iowa at Nebraska: This game could be downright ugly. I just hope it's not Iowa at Purdue style ugly. CONFIDENCE: 55%

7. Illinois at Iowa: The Illini are all about the three. When they are on they can beat most teams in the country (see their wins against Butler and Gonzaga and to a lesser three-degree, Ohio State). When they are off, as they have been for the better part of the last month, Northwestern can beat them in Champaign by double-digits. CONFIDENCE: 50%

8. Minnesota at Iowa: The Gophers beat Nebraska 84-65 on Tuesday night to snap a four-game losing streak. They are a dangerous defensive team and can get out and run. I just don't like the matchup for Iowa. CONFIDENCE: 45%

9. Iowa at Wisconsin: Iowa has won three in a row against Wisconsin. Tough to imagine them winning back to back games at the Kohl Center, isn't it? CONFIDENCE: 30%

10. Iowa at Minnesota: Iowa won their last year, but the Hawks will have to be hitting from three to have a chance this year and Matt Gatens is playing in Europe. CONFIDENCE: 15%

11. Iowa at Indiana: Snowball, meet Hades. CONFIDENCE: 5%

So that's six games where I would say right now I think Iowa will win, one tossup (Illinois) and four games where I side with a loss.

If Iowa goes 7-4 the rest of the way, that is a 20-11/9-9 season, which is what I predicted back in October. If that 7th win was the home game against Illinois, the Hawks will have to win two in the Big Ten tournament to have a shot at the NCAA tournament. If Iowa goes 6-5, I think they'd have to win the Big Ten tournament to get into the dance or at least make it to the finals with twins against two ranked teams. Of course, if Iowa went 6-4 and won at Indiana and beat Minnesota twice, that's a different looking resume, but then there would be some bad losses tossed in the mix, too.

Iowa still has more than one-third of its season remaining, but as I wrote last week they have eliminated most all of their margin for error after not being able to beat Michigan State at home and Purdue on the road. Had Iowa done that, their RPI would be in the 50's as opposed to the mid-80's and they'd be in the field right now, with those wins against soft teams being resume filler.

Now? They probably have to go 7-0 against Nebraska (twice), Penn State (twice) and Northwestern, Purdue and Illinois at home just to be in the discussion as a bubble team.

Is it possible? Yes, as five of those seven games are at home. Do you feel good about the road games at Penn State and Nebraska? I don't, not with the way this Iowa team shoots from beyond the arc.

Jon, I quite reading after you only had Iowa at 80% confidence to win against Penn State. Do you have some inside knowledge that we don't know about? Has the flu bug or food poisoning run through the team and all 3 starting guards out, along with Mel, May and Rickert?

Sheesh. My confidence is at 98% for the Hawkys to beat PSU...and I really have lost some respect for you with this thread and analysis. Re think it and get back to all of us when you make any sense.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Really? Iowa has no better than a 75% chance of winning any home game...most notably Penn State and Nebraska? Iowa fans should not be optimistic about tonight's game? Vegas currently has us as a 13.5 point favorite. Our chances are 50-50 or worse at Penn State and Nebraska? Those comments are ridiculous IMO.

Yes, really.

Which teams in this league do you think Iowa has better than a 50/50 shot of beating on the road?
Which teams do you think Iowa has better than a 75% shot of beating in Carver?

The way I look at it, 50% shot means you think you would win that game half the time. 75% means 3 out of every 4 games. Not sure how else to look at that.

Penn State at home, maybe Iowa would win more than 3 out of 4. On the road, more than half? I'm not so sure about that. I haven't seen anything out of this team that makes me think they can go on the road and beat ANY team in this conference more than half the time. As we've seen, this team has the capacity to shoot very poorly. Remember being down 20+ at home to Gardner Webb? That was this season.

I also don't take the NW game to mean that Iowa will go on the road and steamroll everyone. Probably wouldn't even beat NW that badly in Welsh Ryan if they played them again.

Besides, you didn't even read Stillbuster's quote correctly. Let me repeat it:
With the exception of Penn St, no better than 50% to win any road game.

I'm not sure what's so ridiculous about that to where it doesn't even deserve a response.

 

[aaronzuriel]

Yes, really.

Which teams in this league do you think Iowa has better than a 50/50 shot of beating on the road?
Which teams do you think Iowa has better than a 75% shot of beating in Carver?

The way I look at it, 50% shot means you think you would win that game half the time. 75% means 3 out of every 4 games. Not sure how else to look at that.

Penn State at home, maybe Iowa would win more than 3 out of 4. On the road, more than half? I'm not so sure about that. I haven't seen anything out of this team that makes me think they can go on the road and beat ANY team in this conference more than half the time. As we've seen, this team has the capacity to shoot very poorly. Remember being down 20+ at home to Gardner Webb? That was this season.

I also don't take the NW game to mean that Iowa will go on the road and steamroll everyone. Probably wouldn't even beat NW that badly in Welsh Ryan if they played them again.

Besides, you didn't even read Stillbuster's quote correctly. Let me repeat it:
With the exception of Penn St, no better than 50% to win any road game.

I'm not sure what's so ridiculous about that to where it doesn't even deserve a response.

Do you watch games? Do you watch all the Iowa games? I do and way too many other Big Ten and NCAA BB games. I have no other life at this time.

Iowa will pound Penn State and pound 3 or 4 other teams at home. They will also win 2 or 3 away games and only lose, barely... 1 or 2 home games. I know it's confusing to you all to count up the wins but they will be enough...

IOWA is BACK

Please people... watch some BB and then come back with your analysis and predictions.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Did you even read this thread? I have already answered your first 2 questions when I gave my percentages on every game...so you probably don't want to call someone else out on their reading skills. Also, I didn't say the wins would be pretty...just gave my confidence level on winning the game. An ugly win by 1 point is a win which is all I predicted.

I watch the vast majority of the Big Ten basketball games...even when Iowa isn't playing so I am also factoring in the other team's strengths and weaknesses. You may not know this but Penn State has not won a conference game at home. We have a road win at NW (better than PSU) so the advantage is clearly Iowa's and there's no reason to call this a 50-50 game when looking at the facts...dismissing either of our opinions.

Did you catch the final score of the Gardner Webb game? Go back and take a look. We won that game. They didn't give us half a win because we were way down in the game. As for NW...we can only go by the game that was played and we won by 20 so it makes sense to feel confident about the win at home.

Again, I did not predict scores or margins of victory which you imply by stating that "Iowa will go on the road and steamroll everyone." I only predicted 2 wins against the 2 worst teams in the conference...can be by as little as 1 point. So...I think your post was lacking in factual content and somewhat ridiculous but my guess is you feel you "deserve" a response so you got one. However, this will be the last one since you aren't really reading (or comprehending) them anyway. Enjoy that half empty glass of...

Yes, really.

Which teams in this league do you think Iowa has better than a 50/50 shot of beating on the road?
Which teams do you think Iowa has better than a 75% shot of beating in Carver?

The way I look at it, 50% shot means you think you would win that game half the time. 75% means 3 out of every 4 games. Not sure how else to look at that.

Penn State at home, maybe Iowa would win more than 3 out of 4. On the road, more than half? I'm not so sure about that. I haven't seen anything out of this team that makes me think they can go on the road and beat ANY team in this conference more than half the time. As we've seen, this team has the capacity to shoot very poorly. Remember being down 20+ at home to Gardner Webb? That was this season.

I also don't take the NW game to mean that Iowa will go on the road and steamroll everyone. Probably wouldn't even beat NW that badly in Welsh Ryan if they played them again.

Besides, you didn't even read Stillbuster's quote correctly. Let me repeat it:
With the exception of Penn St, no better than 50% to win any road game.

I'm not sure what's so ridiculous about that to where it doesn't even deserve a response.

 

[jacknicholson]

Very nice analysis, Jon. I see us losing to Minnesota, Wisconsin and, of course, Indiana, away.....

If we continue to improve as we seem to do toward the end of the season, we can do it.....

Let's go Hawks....

 

[HawkeyeWalker]

Win at home. Get a couple and improve on the road. Steal a couple= we got a chance.

Which is what most were hoping for this season.

#inlinewithreasonableexpectations

 

[Tierney]

Win at home. Get a couple and improve on the road. Steal a couple= we got a chance.

Which is what most were hoping for this season.

#inlinewithreasonableexpectations

With Iowas depth they should be fresher than some of the other teams during the second half of conference play.