What's your Over/Under?

O/U 8.5 wins

  • Over

    Votes: 7 58.3%

  • Under

    Votes: 5 41.7%
  • Total voters
    12
  • Poll closed .
Over

IMO, they will get either Michigan or Washington, and likely get clipped by Illinois. Prediction: 9-3.
 
Vegas has the O/U at 7.5. I think that is an easy over. 8.5 is tougher. Safer money is the under. 8-4. It feels like a season where we sneak one of the first 3 conference games, but lose to Illinois and one inexplicable loss.
 
I picked over, BUT, that's assuming that the staff can gel the special teams. To me, that is the biggest variable heading into the season. If the inexperience at ST costs us a game, it's extremely difficult seeing us surpassing 8 wins.

I am high on the potential of this offense. All we need there is for the offensive line to overcome the losses, at least to the point where we don't have one very weak link that handcuffs both the running and passing games.

This arguably is the best group of WRs of the Ferentz era, and probably the deepest group of RBs. Don't sleep on Moulton, whom I've got a feeling is going to make a statement out of the gate.
 
I think there are 2 guaranteed wins (N ILL and UNI) and 3 guaranteed losses (OSU, Mich and Wash).

That leaves 7 "tossup" games. We win 5 of those and go 7-5. That would be a great season. This is the youngest team in the Big Ten. Sorry, but it is what it is. The Over/Under is actually 7.

Last year's team underachieved a bit at 9-4, due to 4 unbelievably close losses. That was Kirk's best team since 2009, in my opinion.
 
I believe QB is at or more than 90% of a team's success/failure probability. We also know absolutely nothing about our QBs' skills.

Because of those two statements I believe to be true, it follows that we have no idea whether Iowa will be successful.

When you have no idea about something, it means the chances of each of two outcomes is 50%.

50% is 6-6.

Ergo, no one should vote the over at 8.5.

I voted under because I'm a rational person.

/thread
 
SwirlinLingerie said:
Except that Iowa football seems to live in the 10% where QB play doesn't necessarily dictate success/failure.
Click to expand...
Exactly.

Last ten years or so: poor QB play = decent Iowa teams. *IF* there was decent QB play = great Iowa teams.

Last year was a great Iowa team, although 9-4 doesn't necessarily reflect that.
 
Fryowa said:
I believe QB is at or more than 90% of a team's success/failure probability. We also know absolutely nothing about our QBs' skills.

Because of those two statements I believe to be true, it follows that we have no idea whether Iowa will be successful.

When you have no idea about something, it means the chances of each of two outcomes is 50%.

50% is 6-6.

Ergo, no one should vote the over at 8.5.

I voted under because I'm a rational person.

/thread
Click to expand...
This is some really, really atrocious misuse of statistical analysis, Fry. Even for you. :)

First, the "90% of a team's success" thing. Source? Gotcha: www.MadeUpByFry.com That said, yes QB plays is an important factor and I agree we know very little about Iowa's QB play.

"When you have no idea about something, it means the chances of each of two outcomes is 50%." Um, laughably not true. I do not know whether a meteor will hit Des Moines tomorrow, but that doesn't mean the odds of it happening are 50/50. Lack of knowledge bears no relationship to statistical probability.

Even if it did, concluding that our lack of knowledge of one variable towards Iowa's success necessarily equates to a 6-6 year has no logical nexus. We won 10 games in '23 with historically bad QB play. By this logic we are 50/50 to win or lose every game, whether it be UNI or OSU.

I agree that no one should take the over at 8.5. 9 wins would be an unreal year given the schedule and our lack of experience in key areas. But, 7.5, which is the Vegas line, is more interesting. But if you want to give me the over/under at 6, I would bet a hefty amount on the over there. Iowa is not going .500.
 
Seth53 said:
Exactly.

Last ten years or so: poor QB play = decent Iowa teams. *IF* there was decent QB play = great Iowa teams.

Last year was a great Iowa team, although 9-4 doesn't necessarily reflect that.
Click to expand...

This is what I said a couple weeks ago.

I almost fear having an average Big 10 QB. Which we begged for....for years. Like that was all we needed to win 10 games a year. Despite winning 9 or 10 games a year with what we had. "If we just had an average quarterback........"

And now we'll have exactly what we wanted. And we could see 7 uninspiring wins.
 
dagdaj said:
This is what I said a couple weeks ago.

I almost fear having an average Big 10 QB. Which we begged for....for years. Like that was all we needed to win 10 games a year. Despite winning 9 or 10 games a year with what we had. "If we just had an average quarterback........"

And now we'll have exactly what we wanted. And we could see 7 uninspiring wins.
Click to expand...
When we all previously wished for just average QB play, that was in 2023-24 when we had absolutely elite defenses and STs. In those years, if we had a poor man's Nate Stanley, 11 wins were absolutely on the table.

But, going into '26 most of us believe we will have a very good defense, but likely not elite, and we definitely will not have an elite special teams. So, we need something more than average QB play and offense in order to sneak into double digit wins.
 
Under. I just think bringing in the youngest team in DIV 1 FBS along with all the unknowns like D line may be too much to get over 8.5. I hope I'm wrong. Heck, can prob add 1 loss to special teams alone this season.
 
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