UW-4 seed; Iowa-9 seed ??

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NikeHawk21

Well-Known Member
That’s what Lunardi has in his latest bracket. Here’s a synopsis of the two teams.

UW (20-9) (12-6)

Best wins:
- Home vs Michigan
- Home vs Maryland
- at Iowa
- at Minnesota

Worst losses:
- at Western Kentucky
- at Indiana


Iowa (21-8) (10-8)

Best wins:
- Home vs Michigan
- Home vs Iowa State
- Home vs Ohio State

Worst losses:
- Home vs Rutgers


How in the actual F is there a 5 seed difference between those two resumes?
 
I guess one thing I should consider is margin of defeat. Iowa has been hammered a handful of times so that doesn’t help their metrics.

We are down to 40th in the KenPom compared to UW at 12.

I don’t know I guess I was always under the school of thought of who have you beaten. Both teams have beaten Michigan at home but don’t have a ton of big time wins outside of that.
 
NikeHawk21 said:
I guess one thing I should consider is margin of defeat. Iowa has been hammered a handful of times so that doesn’t help their metrics.

We are down to 40th in the KenPom compared to UW at 12.

I don’t know I guess I was always under the school of thought of who have you beaten. Both teams have beaten Michigan at home but don’t have a ton of big time wins outside of that.
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It takes account adj D right? That's your answer if so. Look at Auburn, they are down as a 5 seed. I don't think that NCAA committee is going to go straight chalk with the NET, or I at least hope.
 
How are you guys looking at resumes? Look at Auburn, in Lunardi's bracket today 20-9 in the SEC as a 6 seed and I am not even sure that they have a quad 1 win.
 
I believe that the seeding is a knee jerk reaction of Iowa's recent slide, and I have to believe that memories of previous years and post season games enter into Lunardi's thinking, consequently, I find it difficult to dispute where he has Iowa right now, maybe 8 would be more accurate but there isn't a real difference between 8/9. However, I think putting WI as a 4 seed is just a tad bit optimistic. I do not think they are that special, and, (dare I say it), prime for an upset against Iowa.

To be honest, being an 8/9 in the same bracket as Virginia isn't the worst case scenario, of the 4 #1 seeds in the latest bracket, I would rather them than, say, Duke for example........

but, its a fools hope, come selection Sunday, more than one "Oh crap, what a shitty draw" will be heard.............
 
Wisconsin did have pretty solid non-conference schedule. Then went 3-2 in those games losing to Marquette in OT and by 7 to Virginia.

@Xavier (next 4 out)
Oklahoma (projected 10 seed by JL)
@Virgina (1)
NC State (10)
@Marquette (4)

Probably getting some respect there, but as the OP said, a 5 seed difference? A 4 seed difference than ISU? Seems a bit high. I guess we'll find out Thursday. If Iowa gets blasted off the court, maybe Joe is right.
 
I can tell you right now, if whiskey simply holds par, they are not a GD 4 seed. 6 maybe. I'd have Iowa as 7 or 8 right now.
 
If Lunardi has us as a 9 seed now then it begs the question as to whether we'll even make the Dance if we go 0-3 from here on out. I know most people say we're in but I'm growing more and more pessimistic that we are not assured of it.

Our NET rating will be in the 50s for one thing, and the committee will be aware how it took miraculous endings to beat NW, Rutgers and Indiana.

Also, Michigan, MSU, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland and now Minnesota are definitely in. tOSU is probably in and Indiana is making a late run to get in. I know that supposedly, the committee isn't supposed to take into account how many from each conference they will put into the tournament but we all know that could play a factor in reality. Think the committee wants to put nine B1G teams in? I doubt it.

0-3, and the play-in game and even the NIT are still in play. At least Baer would get another home game in that event.
 
If we add @ Wisconsin to our best wins I think we get a healthy bump. Beat NE and win on Thursday of BTT to make it 3 straight wins and the Friday game is likely the difference between 6 and 7. Win a few and our story changes.
 
SteveGarvey1 said:
If Lunardi has us as a 9 seed now then it begs the question as to whether we'll even make the Dance if we go 0-3 from here on out. I know most people say we're in but I'm growing more and more pessimistic that we are not assured of it.

Our NET rating will be in the 50s for one thing, and the committee will be aware how it took miraculous endings to beat NW, Rutgers and Indiana.

Also, Michigan, MSU, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland and now Minnesota are definitely in. tOSU is probably in and Indiana is making a late run to get in. I know that supposedly, the committee isn't supposed to take into account how many from each conference they will put into the tournament but we all know that could play a factor in reality. Think the committee wants to put nine B1G teams in? I doubt it.

0-3, and the play-in game and even the NIT are still in play. At least Baer would get another home game in that event.
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I am not saying Iowa is a lock, but they pretty much are, you have to take into account that the last 2 games are quad 1 road games and they aren't gonna fall even in loss that hard. Minnesota is definitely not in now, at least over Iowa.
 
SteveGarvey1 said:
If Lunardi has us as a 9 seed now then it begs the question as to whether we'll even make the Dance if we go 0-3 from here on out. I know most people say we're in but I'm growing more and more pessimistic that we are not assured of it.

Our NET rating will be in the 50s for one thing, and the committee will be aware how it took miraculous endings to beat NW, Rutgers and Indiana.

Also, Michigan, MSU, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland and now Minnesota are definitely in. tOSU is probably in and Indiana is making a late run to get in. I know that supposedly, the committee isn't supposed to take into account how many from each conference they will put into the tournament but we all know that could play a factor in reality. Think the committee wants to put nine B1G teams in? I doubt it.

0-3, and the play-in game and even the NIT are still in play. At least Baer would get another home game in that event.
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Iowa is almost certainly going to finish a solo 6th. They are likely 11-9 but even at 10-10 we are ahead of the probable 9-11 finishes of OSU & MN.

Even at 0-3 we are a virtual lock for the NCAA. But does it even matter if we have lost 5 in a row? Who would we beat? We need a couple wins for our psyche.
 
Xerxes said:
Wisconsin did have pretty solid non-conference schedule. Then went 3-2 in those games losing to Marquette in OT and by 7 to Virginia.

@Xavier (next 4 out)
Oklahoma (projected 10 seed by JL)
@Virgina (1)
NC State (10)
@Marquette (4)

Probably getting some respect there, but as the OP said, a 5 seed difference? A 4 seed difference than ISU? Seems a bit high. I guess we'll find out Thursday. If Iowa gets blasted off the court, maybe Joe is right.
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If you look at the entire body of work I can see why and honestly it’s really rather simple why there is such a difference in seed. Wisconsin has been in every single game they’ve played.. Wisconsin SOS is what about 60 slots higher than Iowa’s as well.
 
InGoodCo said:
I am not saying Iowa is a lock, but they pretty much are, you have to take into account that the last 2 games are quad 1 road games and they aren't gonna fall even in loss that hard. Minnesota is definitely not in now, at least over Iowa.
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And I think every BTT game is Quad 1 or Quad 2. I’m not sure we can fall to 50. We probably could but it wouldn’t be easy.
 
Just throwing this out there but we've had 3 single digit losses on the year. 3 losses where we've lost by 10+ and 2 losses where we've lost by 20+. I get the argument over teams similar to us having much better seeds, but someone has to be seeded there. I guess my thoughts lie solely on where I see Iowa in the discussion and unfortunately based on how they've played recently I'd be more concerned over the credibility of an expert that would pen us in as 4 seed than I would someone who'd put us at a 9 seed.
 
WindsorHawk said:
Iowa is almost certainly going to finish a solo 6th. They are likely 11-9 but even at 10-10 we are ahead of the probable 9-11 finishes of OSU & MN.

Even at 0-3 we are a virtual lock for the NCAA. But does it even matter if we have lost 5 in a row? Who would we beat? We need a couple wins for our psyche.
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If we lose out there is a very good chance either Ohio State or Minnesota catch us.
 
Get Iowa State the f*** off the five line.

They're going to lose to West Virginia.

Beat Texas Tech this weekend, we'll see.

Update:. It's over in Morgantown. West V wins 90-75. Iowa State will probably move up to a four after this inspiring effort.
 
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This is a great thread! I loved talking Bracketology, even in the years we're not being considered. Yes, Lunardi has us currently as a #9 seed, AND TRENDING DOWN. The committee also looks at how teams are playing in Feb. and March. We are losers of 3 of our last 4, not impressive, especially 20+ point losses at home. IMO, we are NOT a lock if we go 0-3 next. However, 1 win should do it.

The thing to remember is this: just find a way to make it into the dance. Whether we end up a 5 or 12, there are no easy games in the tourney, unless you are a #1 and we all saw Virginia last year. To win the NCAA you have to win 6 games an in a row against the best of the best. That's what makes March Madness the greatest sporting event in the world!
 
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