UNI/RPI thoughts

B

BryceC

Well-Known Member
Big game on Saturday. I don’t want to harp on the RPI too much here but it’s starting to take shape and historically it is a flawed but useful tool for a fan to determine if your team is going to make the tourney or not. It is also going to highlight one of my criticisms of Fran. For what it’s worth I maintained all offseason that I think Iowa will be in the tourney and I still think they will but I might change my mind if they lose to UNI. As has been said previously that win over UNC is going to carry them potentially and is a great win.

Iowa will likely get a nice RPI bump from the last two schools on the noncom schedule. UNI is currently ranked 27th. North Florida dropped pretty far after losing to Tennessee Tech but is still #129. Even if they lose to UNI I still expect this team to rise in the rankings.

The problem is Iowa is currently #102 in the RPI. They will have played 5 RPI top 100 teams in the nonconference, and IMO there is a big difference between going 2-3 vs. them as opposed to 1-4. Obviously will go up during Big 10 play but if Iowa loses to UNI they could end up around 100 in the RPI going into conference play. This can be difficult to overcome and really adds some great importance to this UNI game. I think Iowa can and will win but a loss here would be pretty bad.

Also, Iowa has upgraded their noncon schedule this year. That isn’t in question. However, one of my main criticisms of Fran over the years has been that IMO he doesn’t know how to schedule. Iowa plays 5 good teams and 8 bad teams. The problem is the bad teams are REALLY bad. It’s just destroying this noncon SOS which is really driving the RPI down. Some of this is bad luck (tourney opponents) but for Iowa to have an SOS of 129 after this slate is just really rough.
 
The RPI is a strategic numbers game initially. I think Fran scheduling so many cupcakes his first few years was due to his knowing those squads weren't as talented. Now that the talent has increased a bit, he has started to schedule stronger opponents. Like you said though, playing those "really bad" teams as opposed to the just "bad" teams can really hurt one's RPI.

I also agree that 2-3 looks much better than 1-4 against top 100 teams. Beating UNI would be a nice boost heading into Big Ten play.
 
Agree with everything. Looking at the non-con through a bball perspective, it is a pretty solid schedule. But when you look at it through a RPI perspective, too many teams in the 300s and it kills you. I expect the UNI game to be close, Hawks need to find a way to come out on top.
 
The UNC win by itself isn't going to be enough. Iowa is going to have to notch a few more big wins, no less than 3-4 wins against Top 50 competition IMO, and avoid many bad losses, if it wants to go dancing.

1-7 or some such number against the Top 25-50 isn't going to impress anyone. Win some games, and the RPI will take care of itself, ultimately.

And yeah, Iowa still seems to have trouble avoiding those 300+ RPI opponents. Those kill your RPI. Iowa went from about 24th in the RPI down into the 40's after beating UMBC. The Alcorn State win knocked them down roughly another 20 spots or so.
 
It comes down to being over .500 in the league like it does nearly every year. Do that and it's tough to keep you out.
 
1977Hawkeye said:
The UNC win by itself isn't going to be enough. Iowa is going to have to notch a few more big wins, no less than 3-4 wins against Top 50 competition IMO, and avoid many bad losses, if it wants to go dancing.

1-7 or some such number against the Top 25-50 isn't going to impress anyone. Win some games, and the RPI will take care of itself, ultimately.

And yeah, Iowa still seems to have trouble avoiding those 300+ RPI opponents. Those kill your RPI. Iowa went from about 24th in the RPI down into the 40's after beating UMBC. The Alcorn State win knocked them down roughly another 20 spots or so.
Click to expand...

I'm not going to disagree with you, but I'm going to add a bit. Last year the Hawkeyes only beat 5 top 50 RPI teams and still made the tournament. Granted they barely made it but 3 of the 5 wins were against teams who barely ranked inside the top 50.

Xavier 47
Nebraska 49
Minnesota 50
Ohio State 24
Michigan 11

Really the OSU and Michigan wins were the only solid wins Iowa had last year. 1 was in IC and the other was in Columbus.

UNC is currently in the top 25 as far as RPI and with their schedule they should only go up. It could end up being equivalent to the Michigan game last year, at worst it should be equivalent to the OSU win last year.

But hell...if Iowa beats UNI and North Florida, they go into conference play with a 10-3 record, with zero bad losses, 1 really good road win and 1 good neutral court win. That's a pretty good resume going into conference play.
 
The problem is the RPI formula is a joke and the NCAA still relies on it. You get punished more for badly beating terrible teams at home then you get rewarded for winning a road game at UNC. The good news is that the committee looks at things other than the RPI, but a bad RPI can still keep you out. I know that Fran knows not to schedule the really bad teams as he has mentioned this before in interviews. Perhaps Iowa just has difficulty scheduling these teams. Or perhaps its difficult to predict who is going to be a 200 RPI teams versus a 300 RPI team. But I do think we need to get better at this.
 
mopkins said:
I'm not going to disagree with you, but I'm going to add a bit. Last year the Hawkeyes only beat 5 top 50 RPI teams and still made the tournament. Granted they barely made it but 3 of the 5 wins were against teams who barely ranked inside the top 50.

Xavier 47
Nebraska 49
Minnesota 50
Ohio State 24
Michigan 11

Really the OSU and Michigan wins were the only solid wins Iowa had last year. 1 was in IC and the other was in Columbus.

UNC is currently in the top 25 as far as RPI and with their schedule they should only go up. It could end up being equivalent to the Michigan game last year, at worst it should be equivalent to the OSU win last year.

But hell...if Iowa beats UNI and North Florida, they go into conference play with a 10-3 record, with zero bad losses, 1 really good road win and 1 good neutral court win. That's a pretty good resume going into conference play.
Click to expand...

Yeah I agree - If Iowa got in last year with five Top 50 wins, that's why I'm saying they're going to have to win a few more. They have one right now. Beat UNI, that's two. Get a few more in conference play, and they'll be in pretty decent shape. Beating UNI will be big, just can't fall on your face during conference play.

I'll be happy at 10-3 going into conference games, and feeling reasonably good about Iowa's chances at an NCAA bid.
 
djwoody98 said:
It comes down to being over .500 in the league like it does nearly every year. Do that and it's tough to keep you out.
Click to expand...

Yep, totally agree with you there. If you go over .500 in a major conference not named the SEC you'll most likely get in if you had a decent non-con (which you guys have). Now Michigan and Nebraska probably have to win a couple of more games now to overcome their non-con mess :)
 
JG10Hawk said:
The RPI is a strategic numbers game initially. I think Fran scheduling so many cupcakes his first few years was due to his knowing those squads weren't as talented.
Click to expand...

Confidence builders for his team and to get wins under their belt. Fran was banking on Iowa stealing a few games in the Big Ten and that would take care of the RPI, Iowa was close, but let a helluva lot of games slip away late and losing those Big Ten games sealed their fate.
 
Easy fix. And Fran wouldn't even have to think about it. Just mirror UNI's schedule.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Share this page

Top