the map below shows where Russian pressure is coming from. From the lower left,
1. concerns about a recrossing of the Dnipro River west towards Odesa and cutting off the port. This one I doubt at this time.
2. Moving right and up, Zaporihsia. The Russians have control of the Nuke Power Plant. Lots of fighting and reports of Ukrainian artillery hitting the plant. Both sides could use this as a pawn or worse.
3. West of Donyetsk. Big city, with lots of bitter fighting there since 2013.
4. West of Lughansk. Site of the most bitter fighting in the past months. Ukraine is in trouble here and barely holding on to Bakhmut which likely will fall.
The big fight has already begun. In true Soviet-type fashion, the Russians are slowly building up pressure to wear down the enemy. Ukraine is doggedly holding on especially west of Lughansk. Russia is feigning an attack further north at Kharkiv, but I think it is only a diversion.
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