The War

[Fryowa]

#1 I agree with you 100%. Our administration has changed their stance on why they started the war a few times. The only thing that actually tracks... Israel.

#2 Also agree.

The one comment I have about regime change: Do folks think that an arial campaign will cause regime change in Iran? I am highly doubtful that it will, which means sending ground troops if that is the actual goal. This means spilling of blood and treasure (ours).

Iran cannot hold the world economy hostage with Hormuz. Look at what's happening in Australia with fuel and that's just the tip of the iceberg. It isn't just prices. Certain countries are going to hoard, and that is going to lead to really bad things soon that will also probably include deaths. Economies failing also causes deaths to the people least able to do anything about it. If a ground invasion will open it back up, it will have to be a ground invasion. Again, regime change is needed, and the SOH needs to be opened. This is dirty because of the way it's being done, but it needs to happen.

 

[Hawkboys]

A more activated populace may result in more voter participation. While you (may) believe that all politicians are the same, there is something especially odious about the Drumpf administration. These are not usual times, with dems and republicans sparring. While corruption always existed, this is a new level. You may disagree, but the current bunch of dumbassess in our federal government may be working to end democracy as we know it. I think that's worth fighting for, and it isn't impossible to bend that curve. Millions of Americans are really pissed about this, and if it means going back to somewhat corrupt but stable (in terms of our democracy, checks and balances, and the like), I'm all for it. I don't think it's at all hopeless, and it's people who shrug their shoulders who are the problem. I'm aok if you feel hopeless about it, but don't project that apathy and hopelessness onto others.

We live in a Republic

 

[Westernhawk]

We live in a Republic

Specifically, America is (or at least was) a democratic republic. It's democratic in that authority comes from the people (citizens vote, and political power requires public consent) It's a Republic in that power is exercised through representatives and constrained by law. The constitution LIMITS government power, and individual rights cannot be overridden by a simple majority vote.

Lots of people getting involved and active in our political process is a healthy thing. Protests activate and unite people, and support our system of checks and balances. Sometimes new leaders emerge out of these times.

It concerns me that the (now weakened) MAGA fools have no comprehension of how our government is supposed to run. Congress has the purse strings, for example. The Justice Department doesn't just work for the president. Same with the Supreme Court.

I'm cautiously optimistic that our Democratic Republic will withstand all of this bullshit. I'm not sure what your point was, but hopefully we can all agree that people should be aware of issues, and do their best to ensure that their voices are somehow represented, and that not only mega billionaire oligarchs have a voice. Fryiowa may be right, in that it's hopeless and the oligarchs have already won. I hope not. I hope our Democratic Republic survives the current authoritarian era.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

When you said "MAGA" it moved a little bit!!

 

[Fryowa]

Specifically, America is (or at least was) a democratic republic. It's democratic in that authority comes from the people (citizens vote, and political power requires public consent) It's a Republic in that power is exercised through representatives and constrained by law. The constitution LIMITS government power, and individual rights cannot be overridden by a simple majority vote.

That is our government in theory and on paper. Not in reality.

And I'm sorry, the democrats do just as much shady shit as the republicans. It's just that you choose not to acknowledge it because what they do you agree with.

Both sides are equally corrupt.

 

[HuckFinn]

#1 - So we are trying to install a new regime? Was that the point of the war? If it was, what's the plan for installing a new regime? We have a poor track record of success in that area, it is extremely hard to accomplish that, it typically involves years or even decades of US involvement, and I do not want to use US blood and treasure for that goal, especially without a very detailed plan that is also outlined to congress and ultimately approved.

#2 - We were told that the US strikes in June completely obliterated Iran's nuclear capabilities. Was this not true? If we fell short, how so?

#2: Blatant lie documented multiple sources.

 

[Westernhawk]

When you said "MAGA" it moved a little bit!!

Wow that's really weird.

 

[Westernhawk]

Hey how is that short military operation in Iran going?

 

[thedukeofearl]

Here’s an interesting take, read the article

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027799113182679061

No worries, missiles especially the Tomahawk are rather inexpensive

A Tomahawk cruise missile costs between $1.3 million and $4.1 million to produce, with the exact price tag heavily dependent on the specific variant, technology upgrades, and purchasing year. [1, 2, 3, 4]

How many missiles of every stripe have we wasted on blowing up sand

 

[thedukeofearl]

Russia's invasion of Ukraine showed how far their military capability had degraded, and they have since used Ukraine as a training ground to bring up their capabilities. I think we have learned about modern warfare from our front-row seat to Russia-Ukraine, we began our adaptation prior to the most recent hostilities breaking out, and we are currently honing our capabilities.

The biggest thing we need to do from a defense standpoint moving forward is to greatly increase manufacturing capacity at home. You have spoken about how China dwarfs us in this regard...all the great tech and tactics in the world don't matter when you run out of "bullets." I think they are moving in the right direction on this stuff, but catching China at any point in the coming decades is unrealistic.

edit: I also bemoan that fact that all of this spending on defense is taking money away that could be spent on improving things at home, but due to my aforementioned anxiety about broad international conflict in the near future, I cannot even condemn it.

Perhaps He who has the most and best drones wins

Seems as thought the concept of war has changed drastically

One could wonder if watching the World Cup games stopped the warfare for a while

Go Mighty Hawks

 

[thedukeofearl]

I'm sorry to say that politicians in that era were different than what we have now. Those sorts of things were possible at that time. The politicians in place now--both republican and democrats--are not those people. They are partisan puppets of oligarch billionaires. Period, full stop. Please prove me wrong with evidence on that point. I would love to be wrong.

I do admire your optimism, though, and to be honest there's something to be said for that kind of blissful ignorance. False hope is still hope, and it's soothing to be sure.

Hear Hear

 

[thedukeofearl]

Israel wanted Iran wiped off the face of the planet and they played our current president like a fiddle. There wasn't a plan, this was a "We'll figure that out later" thing.

However, I do think there is the potential for some positives long-term if it's played right. The IRGC theocracy has killed more of their own citizens than the United States and Israel ever will. They need a regime change for their own sake first, everyone else's sake 2nd.

I'll let everyone else argue about the best way to have tried doing it.

#2 What we get told, and the truth are usually two very different things.

#1 I am very, very confident this entire thing was Israel.

One has to wonder

Netanyahu appears to be Israel's version of Hitler

 

[thedukeofearl]

When you said "MAGA" it moved a little bit!!

Larger or Smaller

 

[Westernhawk]

Larger or Smaller

Pete Hegseth will check it for him. He's into that.

 

[Westernhawk]

Kegsbreath is going to ask for another $67B for the war effort today. This and more than 100 soldiers injured last week.

This needs DOGE'd.

1. This is expensive
2. The regime is the same as before the war
3. Hormuz is disrupted, causing global problems with economies.
4. Really unclear if "imminent" nuclear threat was ever really imminent, and unclear what has changed.

FAIL.

Trump/Israel war needs to answer some hard questions. Bad for America at this point.

 

[Fryowa]

Netanyahu appears to be Israel's version of Hitler

Netanyahu is a criminal, but there are a few important distinctions and nuances.

Hitler wanted to expand and take over Europe and Eurasia, and turn it into the GGR. Netanyahu doesn't want to expand, he just wants all Arab countries destroyed and he wants Arabs eradicated from Gaza. He knows 1) there's no realistic way for Israel to take over the region, and 2) this is his probably last chance having a US president who'll help him.

He's run into a few complications with his plan, though...even though it started out the way he wanted...

Netanyahu was planning on a quick and decisive shutdown of Iran and then it's puppets to subsequently fall. Now he's seeing that the only way the US can topple Iran is a full scale war (i.e. Iraq in the 90s) and even Donald Trump hasn't gotten that brave. He likely won't get that brave either because he knows that's probably the tipping point where even most Republicans turn on him.

Mind you, the US could EASILY take over control of the SOH in about a week. It wouldn't be a problem whatsoever. All it would take is a full scale air campaign like what was done in Iraq 35 years ago followed by a ground campaign. But the US populace wouldn't go for it. Trump knows it wouldn't last if he tried.

And before anyone pipes up about how the SOH thing came as a big surprise fly in the ointment, this was no surprise. You want to know why no sitting president has ever tried to mess with Iran in the past 50 years? It's because they knew from their military advisors that there's no way the US can control the strait without a full scale land/sea/air invasion. Trump's JCS knew it as well and they told him that exact same thing. The JCS isn't a bunch of his cronies who'll believe whatever he says, they're career soldiers/sailors/Marines who understand war and geopolitics better than anyone and they're devoted to their country first. They just happen to be on the JCS during the term of a bad apple.

The problem is the JCS aren't the ones driving and making the decisions. People like Rubio and Hegseth are, and because they care more about their power, status, and money than their country---and also because Trump controls their power, status, and money 100%---they ultimately make those decisions according to his wishes...not what's right and not what's practical.

Now we're at a point of no return where we can't win. The US can't afford to tuck its tail and run and admit defeat because then the global order gets completely shuffled and we look weak and stupid. Right now we just look stupid. But on the other side of the coin we can't just send 80% of our military over there to invade a country, causing thousands of KIA because people are pissed about $3.79 gas. That kind of invasion would be worse than Vietnam.

Kalifornians...don't come at me with (aCKshUalLY...it's $5.29 in Kalifornia...). You did that to yourselves by either voting the outrageous taxes into place, or you moved there knowingly after it was already that way...

 

[haydensly]

Netanyahu is a criminal, but there are a few important distinctions and nuances.

Hitler wanted to expand and take over Europe and Eurasia, and turn it into the GGR. Netanyahu doesn't want to expand, he just wants all Arab countries destroyed and he wants Arabs eradicated from Gaza. He knows 1) there's no realistic way for Israel to take over the region, and 2) this is his probably last chance having a US president who'll help him.

He's run into a few complications with his plan, though...even though it started out the way he wanted...

Netanyahu was planning on a quick and decisive shutdown of Iran and then it's puppets to subsequently fall. Now he's seeing that the only way the US can topple Iran is a full scale war (i.e. Iraq in the 90s) and even Donald Trump hasn't gotten that brave. He likely won't get that brave either because he knows that's probably the tipping point where even most Republicans turn on him.

Mind you, the US could EASILY take over control of the SOH in about a week. It wouldn't be a problem whatsoever. All it would take is a full scale air campaign like what was done in Iraq 35 years ago followed by a ground campaign. But the US populace wouldn't go for it. Trump knows it wouldn't last if he tried.

And before anyone pipes up about how the SOH thing came as a big surprise fly in the ointment, this was no surprise. You want to know why no sitting president has ever tried to mess with Iran in the past 50 years? It's because they knew from their military advisors that there's no way the US can control the strait without a full scale land/sea/air invasion. Trump's JCS knew it as well and they told him that exact same thing. The JCS isn't a bunch of his cronies who'll believe whatever he says, they're career soldiers/sailors/Marines who understand war and geopolitics better than anyone and they're devoted to their country first. They just happen to be on the JCS during the term of a bad apple.

The problem is the JCS aren't the ones driving and making the decisions. People like Rubio and Hegseth are, and because they care more about their power, status, and money than their country---and also because Trump controls their power, status, and money 100%---they ultimately make those decisions according to his wishes...not what's right and not what's practical.

Now we're at a point of no return where we can't win. The US can't afford to tuck its tail and run and admit defeat because then the global order gets completely shuffled and we look weak and stupid. Right now we just look stupid. But on the other side of the coin we can't just send 80% of our military over there to invade a country, causing thousands of KIA because people are pissed about $3.79 gas. That kind of invasion would be worse than Vietnam.

Kalifornians...don't come at me with (aCKshUalLY...it's $5.29 in Kalifornia...). You did that to yourselves by either voting the outrageous taxes into place, or you moved there knowingly after it was already that way...

Well said. Although I am afraid we are at a point of no return AND we're going to have to admit defeat in order to extricate ourselves from this mess. It won't be sold that way but it will be our reality. There is no winning this mess.

 

[Westernhawk]

Netanyahu is a criminal, but there are a few important distinctions and nuances.

Hitler wanted to expand and take over Europe and Eurasia, and turn it into the GGR. Netanyahu doesn't want to expand, he just wants all Arab countries destroyed and he wants Arabs eradicated from Gaza. He knows 1) there's no realistic way for Israel to take over the region, and 2) this is his probably last chance having a US president who'll help him.

He's run into a few complications with his plan, though...even though it started out the way he wanted...

Netanyahu was planning on a quick and decisive shutdown of Iran and then it's puppets to subsequently fall. Now he's seeing that the only way the US can topple Iran is a full scale war (i.e. Iraq in the 90s) and even Donald Trump hasn't gotten that brave. He likely won't get that brave either because he knows that's probably the tipping point where even most Republicans turn on him.

Mind you, the US could EASILY take over control of the SOH in about a week. It wouldn't be a problem whatsoever. All it would take is a full scale air campaign like what was done in Iraq 35 years ago followed by a ground campaign. But the US populace wouldn't go for it. Trump knows it wouldn't last if he tried.

And before anyone pipes up about how the SOH thing came as a big surprise fly in the ointment, this was no surprise. You want to know why no sitting president has ever tried to mess with Iran in the past 50 years? It's because they knew from their military advisors that there's no way the US can control the strait without a full scale land/sea/air invasion. Trump's JCS knew it as well and they told him that exact same thing. The JCS isn't a bunch of his cronies who'll believe whatever he says, they're career soldiers/sailors/Marines who understand war and geopolitics better than anyone and they're devoted to their country first. They just happen to be on the JCS during the term of a bad apple.

The problem is the JCS aren't the ones driving and making the decisions. People like Rubio and Hegseth are, and because they care more about their power, status, and money than their country---and also because Trump controls their power, status, and money 100%---they ultimately make those decisions according to his wishes...not what's right and not what's practical.

Now we're at a point of no return where we can't win. The US can't afford to tuck its tail and run and admit defeat because then the global order gets completely shuffled and we look weak and stupid. Right now we just look stupid. But on the other side of the coin we can't just send 80% of our military over there to invade a country, causing thousands of KIA because people are pissed about $3.79 gas. That kind of invasion would be worse than Vietnam.

Kalifornians...don't come at me with (aCKshUalLY...it's $5.29 in Kalifornia...). You did that to yourselves by either voting the outrageous taxes into place, or you moved there knowingly after it was already that way...

Excellent point about DJT, Kegsbreath, and little Marco dangerously ignoring his best military people who likely clearly advised him about all of these risks with the Strait, and even the complexities of going to war with Iran. But, we're lead by a malignant narcissist with frontotemporal dementia which is worsening. Sigh.

 

[Fryowa]

Excellent point about DJT, Kegsbreath, and little Marco dangerously ignoring his best military people who likely clearly advised him about all of these risks with the Strait, and even the complexities of going to war with Iran. But, we're lead by a malignant narcissist with frontotemporal dementia which is worsening. Sigh.

Even though the spotlight is on oil right now, this whole thing....hundreds of millions of deaths and thousands of wars over thousands of years...all caused by two groups who believe that an imaginary spirit told their ancestors that a certain piece of land belonged to them. That's it...nothing more. Every fork in the "war road" leading from homo erectus to right this minute stemmed from it.

You wanna talk about dementia? Religion is dementia. It's just that some people are willing to kill and die over it. I wish when people died they got 30 seconds of alternate consciousness to understand there's nothing after biological functions stop and they could have another 30 seconds to somehow show their families proof.

 

[Westernhawk]

Even though the spotlight is on oil right now, this whole thing....hundreds of millions of deaths and thousands of wars over thousands of years...all caused by two groups who believe that an imaginary spirit told their ancestors that a certain piece of land belonged to them. That's it...nothing more. Every fork in the "war road" leading from homo erectus to right this minute stemmed from it.

You wanna talk about dementia? Religion is dementia. It's just that some people are willing to kill and die over it. I wish when people died they got 30 seconds of alternate consciousness to understand there's nothing after biological functions stop and they could have another 30 seconds to somehow show their families proof.

I totally agree with you. Fundamentalists (Israel, American, muslim, etc) have an apocalyptic view of our existence, and it is terrible. It's like the Dune books/movies without the entertaining parts.